Author: Serkadis

 

To Our Clients, Colleagues and Friends,

· At mid-year 2009, the three top banks held 53% of all deposits in California .  Here are the top six, which collectively hold 65% of all deposits in the state.

1.    24.5%  BofA

2.    19.2%  Wells Fargo

3.    9.6%  JPMorgan Chase

4.    5.5%  Citigroup

5.    3.5%  Mitsubishi UJF

6.    3.4%  U.S. Bancorp

A year ago, Wamu was #3 with 14% and World Savings was #4 with 5%.  Things change.

• Okay, here’s how you pay for college in 18 years, based on what Paul Tuttle suggested when Hannah Garrett was born.  (1) Figure out how much money you’ll need, and (2) buy enough zero coupon bonds that mature in 18, 19, 20 and 21 years to fund that amount.  If you need, say, $100,000 in 18 years, you can buy $100,000 U.S. Treasury Zeros today at about 42.  This way, you’ll write a check for $42,000 and know that in 2027 when your son or daughter becomes a freshman, the bonds will mature at $100,000.  Do the same thing for each year, and as that guy says on late night TV, “Set it and forget it.”  The higher rates go, the cheaper the bonds will get, so be sure to schedule your baby’s delivery when rates are really high.
• Hannah Garrett was astute enough to be born in 1991 when Treasury rates were about 8%.  At that time you could buy $100,000 of zeros for about $31,000.  This was one insightful baby, and her college bonds start maturing this year.  This is all thanks to Tuttlenomics.
• We were on a local freeway yesterday when traffic came to a halt.  Maybe 20 feet away was a downed motorcycle, with the motorcyclist sprawled dead on the freeway. Things like this are disturbing on many levels and remind us of how fleeting life can be.

· In an act of great charity, the FDIC has stopped issuing Cease & Desist orders.  They think it scares the public!   Instead, the kinder, gentler FDIC will now call them Consent Orders.  This, of course, is because the opening sentence has the Board of Directors signing a document in which they consent to receive a C&D.  People, a Board consenting to a Cease & Desist Order is like a man on death row consenting to a lethal injection.  And the best part (we’re being sarcastic) is that if you appeal it, it will be called a C&D and not a Consent Order.  Is this a great regulator, or what?· Did you know that at California banks under $100 million, only 25% of all CEO’s have their country club dues paid for by the bank?  If the bank is over $1 billion, 83% have their dues paid for.  This should make it obvious where you want to work.    At the smaller banks (under $100 million) the average CEO salary is $192,000. At a billion it goes to $482,000.· And what about Chief Financial Officers?  At banks under $100 million, the average salary is $131,000.  Once you get over $1 billion, it goes to $259,000. Quite seriously, higher salaries with increased size often, in our view, could be a very real reason why bankers grow their banks.· But what about Board members? Why would they want to see a bigger bank? At under $100 million, only 13% of the banks pay Director Fees, at an average of about $290 per meeting.  Once you get to $1 billion, fees go to about $1,080 per meeting.· Do you ever feel overwhelmed with reading material?  Pre-internet and e-mail, you read your daily newspaper, maybe 2-3 magazines a week, and the rest of the time was reserved for reading books. Now, you start the day with 100 e-mails, blogs, stuff people send you, etc, etc. etc.  You really need to fight to have time for books, but there’s really nothing quite like having a perfect book you can’t wait to pick up and read.  We’re re-reading An American Tragedy, and it’s that kind of book.· Forty years ago on Sunday, President John Kennedy was assassinated while on a motorcade in Dallas .  Strangely, Aldous Huxley and C.S. Lewis both died that same day.  Both were enormously popular writers, but their obituaries were very small stories buried in the back pages.  If you have to die, it’s useful to do it on a day when there isn’t much else happening in the news.
· A long. long time ago we wrote down the ten things we thought people should learn from going to school: (1)  Discipline and perseverance, (2)  tolerance and compassion (3)  how to make friends (4) honesty  (5) courage to deal with the unknown  (6)  curiosity  (8)  ability to have fun   (9)  introspection  (10)  taking responsibility for your actions  (11) a love of reading and (12) a sense of history.  And long after you’ve forgotten what a cosine is or how to conjugate French verbs, won’t these lessons still be with you?· And isn’t it amazing that Google, which didn’t exist as recently as 1997, generated $22 billion of revenue last year?  This is the sort of thing that makes us so optimistic about our nation’s future. When people worry about what America will do, now that we’re not really a manufacturer anymore, the answer is “No one knows, but no one knew that Google would come along when it did.”  As long as we have entrepreneurs, the profit motive will continue to create new businesses that create jobs and wealth.· And how about that Manny Pacquiao?  Have you ever seen a tougher boxer?  He goes out and beats the hell out of Miguel Cotto, sending Cotto to the hospital, then goes to a nightclub where he performs late into the morning with his band.  We saw Oscar de la Hoya in a few fights and never saw someone as tough, but Pacquiao beat the absolute stuffing out of him a few months back.  This guy Pacquiao just might be a smaller version of Muhammad Ali.· When we wrote about the types of risk financial institution faced, we got a ton of suggestions. We can’t go into them all here for lack of space, but thanks, Peggy, Herb and the rest of you who wrote in with your thoughts on risk management.· We waste lots of time looking up statistics on the Oakland A’s, even when they were in Kansas City or Philadelphia , so here’s a doozy.  On April 22, 1959, the White Sox held an 8-6 lead over the A’, but they went on to score 11 runs on only 1 hit in the 7^th!  That inning featured one single, two players reaching base on errors (plus an additional error), a bases-loaded hit batsman, and 10 walks, 8 of them with the bases loaded.  The A’s outfielder that day was Roger Maris who was probably so disgusted that he decided then and there to get traded away, preferable to the Yankees.· What’s up with TARP? The government has invested $204 billion in banks, has been paid back $71 billion, and has received $10 billion in interest and dividends.· What would happen if you lost your Blackberry, i-Phone or cell phone?  We’d suggest typing up your name, your e-mail address and home or office phone number and then taping it to all these devices.· Here’s the most amazing short surfing video you’ll ever see.  Skip the intro button on the bottom and get right to it.  It’s a 40-50 foot wave, maybe from Mavericks: http://www.metacafe.com/watch/4684/amazing_wave_surfing/· We just finished the Due Diligence involving a $2.0 billion mid-west bank buying a mortgage banking company.  We covered finance, operations, secondary marketing, systems, and countless sub-areas, along with due diligence on their servicing portfolio.  One of the main attractions to the bank was that the servicing department has $25 million in DDA impounds.· We just saw the perfect movie, perfect in that it’s perfect for a first date, a last date, college kids, a married couple, a father and his daughter, a son and his mother, you and your grandmother, people with tattoos and piercings, and people disgusted by tattoos and piercings.   It’s Forget Paris starring Bill Chrystal.  Very hilarious, sweet, romantic, and very engaging.  See you next week, maybe once before Thanksgiving.Garrett, Watts & Co.  Helping mortgage lenders increase revenues, control costs, and better manage risk.

• Corky Watts         408-497-3135
• Joe Garrett         510-469-8633   
• Mike McAuley      281-250-2536

Filed under: Technology, Ferrari, Rumormill

As if scissor doors, gullwings, butterflies and those crazy Koenigsegg pivoters weren’t enough to separate exotics from lesser cars, Ferrari is said to be working on another new door design that is both radical and practical. Go figure.

Autocar came across a patent filing showing a few diagrams depicting this unique door setup. What sets it apart is the fact that the new Ferrari door includes part of the front fender and hinges upward like the butterfly door from a LeMans racer. Apparently the opening is large enough and shaped in such a way that “occupants can place their foot directly behind the front wheel.”

According to the patent application, that will make ingress and egress much easier for passengers in low-slung supercars, though the new door design is said to work just as well on front engined cars as it does for vehicles with their engines mounted aft or amidships. Even better, this design and its unique hinges are reported to be “easy and cost-effective to make,” which should make it easier for the Dodge Chargers of SEMA circa 2012 to get in on the fun too.

We’re still seeing an issue with the A-pillar and windscreen, but it looks interesting. We’ll be sure to keep an eye out for any photos of these funky doors, but for now we’re stuck wondering how hard it was for Ferrari engineers to use the supplied British sports car diagram in order to submit their application form.

[Source: Autocar]

REPORT: Ferrari working on radical new door opening originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Star Trek and Transfromers: Revenge of the Fallen headline this week’s Video Store update, backed by a mob of blood-drenched killers — Hitman, the un…

 

One top ex-secondary guy wrote to me and said, “Things I sort of miss hearing in mortgage banking: “What are rates gonna do tomorrow?” “Why is IndyMac a point better than we are?” Anything associated with “Did you hear what they said on CNBC this morning…….?” “How come I’m losing money on the hedge?” And “See that rep over there? We ended up naked in a hot tub at a conference back in ‘94.” I tell you, sometimes this commentary writes itself.

Right now, companies all over the US are talking about next Friday. Either the companies are closed, and the employees have the day off to go spur the economy, or companies are open. Those that are open may have low seniority people at the desks, or people who don’t care about taking the day off and would rather “bite the bullet” and come in for the day after Thanksgiving. US Postal service is in effect, and therefore it counts as a rescission day. But lock desks, and loan sales, will slow down next week with the holiday coming up.

Maybe folks are out there thinking about their upcoming holiday parties, assuming lay-offs have not been too dramatic and they’re actually going to have one. So here is one for you men out there: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8367141.stm

Will the jumbo market ever come back? I, for one, believe that it will. Obviously many banks offer the product through their retail branches – it earns them a very nice spread versus their cost of deposits. Things are a little iffier through the correspondent channel, but moving in the right direction. Chase, for example, offers non-agency product to eligible Chase clients.

More news about Chase, GMAC Correspondent, D.R. Horton, Suntrust, stock and bond markets, more on short sales, and joke of the day <<< CLICK HERE

CONTACT:
Laura Henderson (202) 621-2947
Patrick Creighton (202) 621-2951

Washington, DC – In anticipation of President Barack Obama’s return from Asia, the free-market Institute for Energy Research (IER) today released and delivered a policy brief for the president and his advisors on China’s booming energy economy and growth.

Thomas J. Pyle, president of IER, issued this statement:

“By all accounts, the president’s trip to Asia was a successful one, and we welcome him home. However, it’s critical to highlight the commonsense energy policies that China is pursuing. Because of China’s aggressive pursuit for affordable, reliable and secure energy – of all forms – their nation continues to be one of the world’s most powerful economic engines. And our team of experts have prepared a compelling outline of ways the U.S. can learn from China and once again make energy a top priority in this country.

“China is manufacturing coal-fired power plants by the week, nuclear plants every few months, the largest hydro-electric dams on earth, windmills and solar panels for export, and securing up oil and gas reserves around the world. They understand that affordable energy is key to economic activity, growth and prosperity.

“Unfortunately, policymakers in Washington are working to increase the cost of energy and limit access to our most affordable resources while others work tirelessly to shut down our nation’s power plants, regardless if it results in the loss of jobs and higher energy costs. Litigation and inaction from federal bureaucracies continues to delay responsible offshore energy exploration. And while China is deploying next generation nuclear technologies, our government continues to say no to low-carbon nuclear energy.

“We hope someday that expensive and unreliable alternative and renewable energy forms can exist in the market place without significant taxpayer assistance and government mandates. And we hope the president reads this paper with an open mind.”

NOTE: Click HERE to view the briefing paper sent to the President today.

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Filed under: Earnings/Financials, Tesla, Electric

Rumors about Tesla’s plan to go public have been circulating since 2008, but a down stock market seemed to put a damper on the start-up’s IPO. Now, the word on the street from Reuters is that Tesla is planning to go public “soon.” When might that be, exactly? Who knows. A source told Reuters it could happen “any day,” but Stephan Dolezalek, managing director of VantagePoint Venture Partners and a Tesla investor, said in September that it’s unlikely to happen in 2009.

For its part, Tesla continues to offer little guidance on the report other than to dismiss it as “rumor or speculation.” We shall see…

[Source: Reuters]

REPORT: Tesla Motors planning IPO “soon” originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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(This guest post originally appeared at the oil drum, and is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License)

One of the features of many models that are used to predict future events is that they focus on target years. Decadal years are the most common target years, so that whether talking of climate or the amount of oil or natural gas available, models focus on, for example, the amount that will be available in 2030. The problem with this approach is that it leaves the public to think that a problem is not yet serious. For example if the prediction is that the production of oil will only be 75 mbd, in 2030 then there is an implication that until 2030 that the situation will remain fine.

However the world does not reach those levels by continuing in the business as usual mode for the next 21 years, and then suddenly have production drop off a cliff one Friday night. Rather it is a problem that inexorably will grow, year on year, between now and then. I was struck by this thought as I looked through the latest comments from CERA/IHS on their view of the future of oil supply. Their view, as we have come to expect, is an optimistic one, and though we are not still living in the days of $30 oil that they had, at one time predicted, it is worth looking into so as to provide some explanation of the difference between their view and mine.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Why CERA Thinks Peak Oil Is Total BS
• Developed Countries’ Oil Demand Already Peaked Back in 2005 — CERA
• Peak Gold: Yearly Gold Production Is Now On A Permanent Downwards Slope

This sounds familiar .

Felix Salmon: What are the consequences of allowing multi-billion-dollar systemically important multinational corporations to report their assets using proprietary mark-to-model tools involving discredited Monte Carlo simulations? I think we all know the answer to that one. But unbelievably, after such shenanigans contributed enormously to the greatest financial meltdown in living memory, the SEC is now set to allow more or less exactly the same thing in the oil industry.

Otto points to a stunning report by oil consultant Alan von Altendorf which spells it all out. Up until now, oil companies needed to actually prove they had reserves before they reported proven oil reserves. Now, however, the SEC is allowing them to use internal, proprietary computer models to essentially pull their “proven reserve” numbers out of thin air (or the nearest friendly Monte Carlo simulation).

We’re not quite as appalled as Felix is — for one thing, oil companies don’t pose systemic risk the same way as financial companies, so just because you can draw a line between overuse of models and the financial blowup, it doesn’t mean we’ll suffer similar repercussions if these models turn out to be total BS.

And, of course, models are useful, and frequently better than actual counting (see: the census controversy)

null –

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Oil Traders Get Even More Bullish On Oil
• Roubini: 10 Reasons The Recovery Will Be U-Shaped
• Asia, Europe, Oil, Gold Keep Climbing

Just as the leaks predicted, the UK government has offered up its Digital Economy Bill, which includes massive changes to copyright law, including the power of the government to effectively change the law at will with little to no oversight. Basically, it would let the Business Secretary, Lord Mandelson, change copyright law through secondary legislation, which requires no Parliamentary approval. As people are noting, Mandelson has had to resign from elected positions twice in the past in disgrace, and is now in an unelected position. And he’s the guy who gets to change copyright law at will? That does not seem right. On top of that, the bill doesn’t even specify “three” strikes for users. Instead, it requires ISPs to notify users with warnings — and to notify copyright holders that they did notify users — and if file sharing is not reduced by 70% in a year (with no indication of how this is measured), then the government will tell ISPs to start kicking people off the internet.

Furthermore, Minister for Digital Britain Stephen Timms, who introduced the new bill, claimed that 99% of ISPs are “broadly supportive” of the bill. That’s funny because BT and TalkTalk — two of the largest ISPs in the UK — have loudly complained about the plans (with TalkTalk threatening to sue, and BT saying that this solution is “not the way forward”) and the ISP Association, which represents ISPs in the UK has loudly slammed the bill as unworkable and backwards looking:

“ISPA members are extremely concerned that the bill, far from strengthening the nation’s communications infrastructure, will penalise the success of the internet industry and undermine the backbone of the digital economy,” the industry group said.

Nicholas Lansman, ISPA’s general secretary, said in the statement that the government’s proposals were “being fast-tracked… and will do little to address the underlying problem”.

“Rather than focusing blindly on enforcement, the government should be asking rights holders to reform the licensing framework so that legal content can be distributed online to consumers in a way that they are clearly demanding,” Lansman said.

So, where exactly are the 99% who are supportive of the bill? Or is that RIAA/IFPI/BPI math?

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Filed under: Technology, Videos

We’re still early in the holiday movie season, but the clear early winner is the blockbuster world-ending thriller 2012. The pic cleared $65 million in its first weekend in the U.S. and a stunning $265 million around the globe. If you have already seen the movie or if you’ve just checked out the five minute clip we showed you last month, then you know this disaster flick is chock-full of CGI destruction on a scale we quite frankly have never seen before. And our favorite scene stars a Lincoln Town Car limo that somehow manages to survive (like the Panther platform upon which it is based) while the virtual world quite literally crumbles around it. It makes us wonder how that scene was made to look so damn real.

Well, we didn’t have to wonder for long, because YouTube has come to the rescue with video of how the scene was created. A company called SWAY Studio created a simulator/program called Drive-A-Tron that works like a virtual stunt driving machine with very realistic-looking results. The simulator features a real steering wheel, along with brake and accelerator pedals to capture the action in real time. SWAY reconfigured the machine for the big screen action flick so the program could interact with moving terrain, and since the system features true to life engine, suspension and even tire inputs, the final product looks pretty damn real to us. Hit the jump to watch how the Lincoln Town Car limo scene was created. Pretty interesting stuff.

[Source: Raging Artists]

Continue reading VIDEO: Deconstructing the end-of-the-world limo ride in 2012

VIDEO: Deconstructing the end-of-the-world limo ride in 2012 originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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I’ve just updated my Flash Light application for those that want such a thing, so it now has morse!

• Press and hold

  The LED will remain on whilst your finger is in contact with the screen

• Double tap

  The LED will remain on till the next double tap.

• Morse

  Swipe left/right to enter Mmorse mode, then type your message and hit enter to have it display.

 

It can be grabbed from the thread here.

HTC HD2 battery life has been a hot area of contention, with some reporting excellent battery life (and have bench marks to prove it) and others (like me) not making it through even an 8 hour business day on one charge.

The forums at TracyandMatt.co.uk is one place where HTC HD2 owners congregated to discuss the issue, so if you want some reassurance than your experience is not unusual, or maybe pick up tips to manage the issue, head right over there.

Thanks James for the tip.

PDF Version (1.1 MB)

“The joke among China hands goes like this: If the Americans and the Chinese start talking about a major project today, in two years the Chinese will be done and the Americans will still be talking and applying for permits.” – Michael Economides

China’s economy is growing at a rate of 9 percent per year, and forecasts have its fast pace of economic growth continuing, though at a slightly lower rate.[i] Eager to bring more of its citizens out of poverty, China will not let energy be a bottleneck for such growth. Because it has limited domestic oil and gas resources, China is investing globally to ensure supply. The world’s most populous country is also expanding its coal-fired electricity capacity at breakneck speed and making a major commitment to nuclear energy. In smaller quantities, and under international pressure from the environmental community, China is also constructing solar- and wind-powered generating facilities, to the point that 30 percent of its wind capacity cannot be supported by its electric grid. Yet even with all these other technologies, coal will remain China’s mainstay for a very long time since coal is its most abundant and least expensive resource.

All this is happening in a developing country that learns from others, and quickly outperforms them by manufacturing the same materials at significantly less cost, thus increasing its export market. It is also a country where there is a lot less red tape: regulations, legal delays, and financing issues do not stand in the way of its energy construction progress.[ii]

Coal

China currently gets 70 percent of its energy from coal[iii] and is expected to retain this fuel as its major source of energy at least through the next several decades. China ranks third in the world in recoverable coal reserves,[iv] after the U.S. and Russia. Its annual coal production and consumption is the highest in the world, more than twice that of the U.S.[v] Both China’s generating sector and its industrial sector rely heavily on coal, with 79 percent of its electric generation being coal-fired.[vi] The Energy information Administration (EIA) expects that 75 percent of China’s electric generation will still be coal-fired in 2030.[vii]

That EIA forecast expects 600 additional gigawatts of coal-fired capacity to be built in China between 2006, the most recent year of reliable data, and 2030.[viii] That equates to 50 plants a year of 500 megawatt (MW) capacity, or 1 coal plant coming on line each and every week for 24 years. From current reports, China is meeting this goal by planning to build 500 coal-fired plants over the next ten years.[ix] That means: every week to 10 days, China will open another coal-fired power plant that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego.[x]

Wind

Not only is China building coal-fired plants to increase its generating capacity; it is building them to back-up wind power when the wind doesn’t blow or when the grid is inadequate to handle the wind capacity. Last year, as much as 30 percent of China’s wind power was not connected to the grid. Adding to the problem is poor connectivity between regional transmission networks, which makes it difficult to move surplus power from one part of the country to another and thus requires each region to have sufficient reserve capacity.[xi]

Even with these problems, China has a goal to produce 15 percent of its energy from renewables by 2020.[xii] To help meet this goal, China is planning to build the world’s largest wind farm in the northwest part of the country. The plan is for 5 gigawatts in 2010, expanding to 20 gigawatts in 2020, at a cost of $1 million per megawatt,[xiii] or $1,000 per kilowatt, about half the cost of an onshore wind unit in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration.[xiv]

While China is manufacturing wind turbines for domestic use, few of its wind turbines are currently being exported. But that may soon change if the U.S. allows a consortium of Chinese and American companies to build a 600-megawatt wind farm in West Texas, using turbines manufactured in China.[xv] One-third of the wind farm’s funding will be from federal stimulus money and about 330 jobs will be created in the U.S., mostly temporary construction jobs. The labor-intensive work of building the turbines will also create thousands of jobs in China. GE will provide the gearboxes of the turbines, but they too will be made in China.[xvi] GE, a major U.S. wind turbine producer, already owns three facilities in China that produce turbine components.[xvii] And GE is planning a factory in Vietnam that will employ 500 local workers and export 10,000 tons of components to GE Energy assembly plants around the world.[xviii]

Solar

China leads the world in solar cell manufacture, although 95 percent of its production is exported.[xix] Currently, China itself generates very little electricity from solar power. At the end of 2008, about 0.01 percent of its grid-connected electric generating capacity was from solar.[xx] However, in September, Arizona-based First Solar signed a deal to build the world’s largest solar farm in China by 2019, which will supply power to 3 million homes.[xxi]

Realizing that the U.S. may be a good market for solar, China’s Suntech, the world’s largest supplier of solar panels, announced plans to build a solar manufacturing plant in Phoenix, Arizona, with production beginning next year. Arizona was chosen because its Renewable Energy Standard requires that 15 percent of the state’s electricity generation be supplied from renewable power by 2025 and because Arizona favors distributed generation, whereby power is provided locally for homes or businesses.[xxii] Suntech’s factory will create finished panels from subcomponents that will be manufactured in the company’s Chinese facilities. According to Suntech, locating the assembly in the U.S. will lower delivery time and costs, as well as reduce the overall carbon footprint of getting finished panels to U.S. customers.

Because of Chinese and other Asian competition, the cost of solar panels dropped 50 percent in the past 18 months.[xxiii] Due to lower operating costs in China, a U.S.-based firm, Evergreen Solar, after receiving over $58 million in incentives from the state of Massachusetts, is moving its assembly plant to China.[xxiv] (In 2008, Massachusetts’s industrial electricity prices were 115 percent higher than those of Arizona.[xxv] Industrial electricity prices in Massachusetts are lower in 2009, making the differential in prices through August 2009 only 69 percent.[xxvi]) The push to get China into the solar power market seems to have some environmental consequences. China is a major worldwide producer of polysilicon—the key component of sunlight capturing wafers. The manufacturing of polysilicon, however, produces a highly toxic substance, silicon tetrachloride, which can be recycled back into the production cycle. In China, however, many factories are dumping the waste product because of the high investment costs and time required for the recycling process, and because of the enormous energy consumption needed to heat the substance to more than 1800 degrees Fahrenheit. People close to the sites where the substance is being dumped are complaining of illness, crop failures, acrid air, and dead fields. But owing to the shortage of polysilicon, the Chinese Government is willing to overlook these complaints.[xxvii]

Nuclear

China is also building nuclear power plants, with 20 nuclear reactors under construction and more starting construction this year.[xxviii] Four AP 1000 reactors are under construction at 2 different sites: Haiyang and Sanmen.[xxix] These are the same reactors that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has ruled need additional analysis, testing, or design modifications of the shield building to ensure compliance with NRC requirements.[xxx] China expects to achieve a total nuclear capacity of 60 gigawatts by 2020, and 120 to 160 gigawatts by 2030,[xxxi] surpassing the total nuclear capacity of the United States.

Natural Gas

China is not well-endowed with natural gas, having only 1.3 percent of the world’s reserves. Nonetheless, it is expected to build an additional 23 gigawatts of gas-fired electric generating capacity by 2030, almost doubling its gas-fired capacity, according to the EIA.[xxxii] To fuel these generators, China will need to continue its dependence on natural gas imports, which will provide one-third of its total natural gas consumption by 2030. China opened its first LNG regasification facility in 2006 at Guangdong, and 2 others are planned to open this year. The first imports of natural gas into China by pipeline are expected in 2011, via a new pipeline running from Turkmenistan through Kazakhstan.[xxxiii]

Conclusion

China is on a fast track to bring online new generating units using coal, nuclear, solar, and wind power, which will allow its economy to continue to grow. However, because China is endowed with a sizable amount of coal resources and because coal is still the cheapest energy source in China, coal-fired generating additions will far outpace those of other technologies. “No matter how much renewable or nuclear is in the mix, coal will remain the dominant power source,” said Ashok Bhargava, a China energy expert at the Asian Development Bank in Manila.[xxxiv] By continuing to rely heavily on currently available coal technology, China will remain the number one emitter of carbon dioxide, almost doubling its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, according to EIA’s forecast.[xxxv]

The U.S., on the other hand, has made it difficult to build generating plants in this country. Prospects of cap-and-trade legislation and reviews and re-reviews by the Environmental Protection Agency have slowed the construction of new coal-fired plants. NRC requirements, financing difficulties, and slow fulfillment of the nuclear provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 have slowed the construction of new nuclear power reactors. Even renewable energy projects have been halted by “not in my back yard” (NIMBY) protesters. They have blocked energy projects by organizing local opposition, changing zoning laws, opposing permits, filing lawsuits, and bleeding projects dry of their financing.[xxxvi] Without reasonably priced energy, it will be difficult to achieve high levels of economic growth, and U.S. industry will just move offshore where energy is more affordable.

 

 

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[i] Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2009, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

[ii] USA Today, “China Pushes Solar, Wind Power Development”, http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/environment/2009-11-17-chinasolar17_CV_N.htm

[iii] Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2006, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Background.html

[iv] Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal which geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions.

[v] Energy information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2009, Table 9, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

[vi] Ibid, Tables H10 and H13

[vii] Ibid

[viii] Ibid, Table H4

[ix] http://windfarms.wordpress.com/2009/01/29/china-building-500-coal-plants/

[x] The New York Times, “Pollution From Chinese Coal Casts a Global Shadow”, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/business/worldbusiness/11chinacoal.html?_r=1

[xi] The Wall Street Journal, “China’s Wind Farms Come with a Catch: Coal Plants”, September 28, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125409730711245037.html

[xii] USA Today, “China Pushes Solar, Wind Power Development”, http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/environment/2009-11-17-chinasolar17_CV_N.htm

[xiii] The Wall Street Journal, “Wind Power: China’s Massive and Cheap Bet on Wind Farms”, July 6, 2009, http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/07/06/wind-power-chinas-massive-and-cheap-bet-on-wind-farms/

[xiv] Energy information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009, Table 8.2, Electricity Market Module, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/index.html

[xv] www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS200008+29-Oct-2009+BW20091029

[xvi] Dallas News, “Wind turbine jobs blow in China’s direction”, November 19, 2009, http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/jlanders/stories/DN-landers_17bus.1.ART0.State.Edition1.3f095e8.html

[xvii] “Overseas firms collecting most green energy money”, October 29, 2009, http://investigativereportingworkshop.org/investigations/wind-energy-funds-going-overseas/

[xviii] “Vietnam’s first turbine component plant underway”, May 13, 2009, http://www.vietnewsonline.vn/News/Business/Companies-Finance/6072/Vietnams-first-turbine-component-plant-underway.htm

[xix] http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/26/china-invests-solar-power-renewable-energy-environment

[xx] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China

[xxi] USA Today, “China Pushes Solar, Wind Power Development”, http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/environment/2009-11-17-chinasolar17_CV_N.htm

[xxii] Business Week, “China Solar Panel Maker Sets First U.S. Plant”, November 15, 2009, http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/nov2009/tc20091115_970512.htm

[xxiii] USA Today, “China Pushes Solar, Wind Power Development”, http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/environment/2009-11-17-chinasolar17_CV_N.htm

[xxiv] The Boston Globe, “Evergreen Shifts Work to China”, November 5, 2009, http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/11/05/evergreen_shifts_work_to_china

[xxv] Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, March 2009, Table 5.6B, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ftproot/electricity/epm/02260903.pdf

[xxvi] Energy information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, November 2009, Table 5.6B, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/epm_sum.html

[xxvii] Washington Post, “Solar Energy Firms Leave Waste Behind in China”, March 8, 2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/08/AR2008030802595_2.html

[xxviii] “Nuclear Power in China”, World Nuclear Association, November 6, 2009, www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

[xxix] Westinghouse News Releases, “Westinghouse and the Shaw Group Celebrate First Concrete Pour at Haiyang Nuclear Site in China”, September 29, 2009, http://westinghousenuclear.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=200

[xxx] “Westinghouse Statement Regarding NRC News Release on AP1000 Shield Building”, http://westinghousenuclear.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=203

[xxxi] “Nuclear Power in China”, World Nuclear Association, November 6, 2009, www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

[xxxii] Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2009, Tables 6 and H3, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

[xxxiii] Ibid, Chapter 3, Natural Gas

[xxxiv] The New York Times, “China Far Outpaces U.S. in Cleaner Coal-Fired Plants”, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/11/world/asia/11coal.html

[xxxv] Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2009, Tables A10, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

[xxxvi] For a repository of stalled and stopped energy projects, see U.S. Chamber of Commerce, “Project No Project Energy-Back On Track”, http://pnp.uschamber.com/

Filed under: Motorsports, Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, Rumormill

Say it ain’t so, Schu! The Daily Telegraph is reporting that seven-time World Champion Michael Schumacher is close to signing on with the newly formed Mercedes Formula 1 team. Mercedes is the new name of the former Brawn GP team, the current Constructors Champion. After a stellar rookie season that saw this former Honda team clinch not just the Constructors Championship, but also the Drivers Championship for Jenson Button, they had a bit of a dropoff as Button bolted for rival McLaren.

That left a seat to fill at Mercedes and if BBC Sport‘s Eddie Jordan is to be believed, none other than Michael Schumacher is about to sign a one-year contract to return to racing in that very car. The deal, which would net Schumacher the same salary that Button turned down at Brawn GP in favour of McLaren, would finally see the German teaming up with Mercedes, who were in the past unsuccessful in their bids to lure him away from Ferrari.

Ferrari almost lured the retired champ back this season when Felipe Massa went down following the infamous spring incident in Hungary. The Champ’s sore neck put a stop to that comeback, but apparently it got Schumi’s juices flowing again. Signing with Mercedes would create something of a German dream team with Nico Rosberg in the other car. If the deal goes through, MS will be reunited with Brawn GP-namesake and current Mercedes team principal Ross Brawn, the man who guided Michael to all seven of his World titles.

Still just a rumor for the moment, the deal is said to give Schumacher the same salary Button turned down when he defected to McLaren. The Schumacher deal is just the latest volley in the silly season melee that has seen Kimi Raikkonen vacate his seat in order to make room for Fernando Alonso at Ferrari, which lost adviser Michael Schumacher as well. Whatever the future holds, it is only going to get more interesting. We’ll keep you posted as things develop. Thanks to everyone for the tips!

[Source: The Daily Telegraph via Planet F1, BBC Sport | Image Source: Getty]

BREAKING: Schumacher likely to return to F1 racing with Mercedes originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Sony has lofty goals for this fiscal year. Banking on the recent success of the PS3 Slim and the round of PS3 price cuts, Sony executive vice presiden…

By Tim Conneally, Betanews

Black Friday is just a week away and the demand for ebook readers looks to already be too great.

Earlier this week, Sony said its 3G-connected Daily Edition Reader may not arrive in time for the holidays. Preorders for the device began on Wednesday, but it will not ship until some time between December 18th and January 7th, and it is not expected to land in stores until after the holidays.

Today, Barnes and Noble said that it has already sold out of its new Nook e-reader, and that the next shipment of devices will not be available until January 4th.

In November 2007 when the Kindle first launched, the device reportedly sold out in six hours and wasn’t available again until mid-2008. Then the Kindle DX debuted, and it too was in short supply.

The link between these devices (and nearly every e-reader on the market) is their electrophoretic display, which comes from Massachusetts company E Ink Corporation. Betanews reached out to E Ink Co. today, to find out how its production is holding up in light of the high demand for e-readers, and a reply is pending.

We’ll update as soon as the company gets back to us.

Copyright Betanews, Inc. 2009

I recognize that NPR news analyst Daniel Schorr is well into his tenth decade of life, and plays the role of the “senior statesman of journalism” on NPR at times, but as a bunch of folks have sent in, he seems to have totally lost it with his recent piece suggesting the internet should share some of the blame for the Ft. Hood shootings done by Maj. Nidal Hasan. The reason? Hasan apparently communicated via email with an “extremist cleric” whom he had met years ago (in person) at a mosque in Northern Virginia. One wonders if they had corresponded by telephone, if Schorr would be questioning if AT&T was to blame. Or, if by pen and paper, if Bic was at fault. Of course, Schorr doesn’t even know what was in the emails sent between the two, so his speculation is based on even less than nothing. However, even if his worst fears are true, and the cleric somehow pushed Hasan to carry out his attack, the fault remains with Hasan, and potentially the cleric. Not the internet.

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Filed under: Detroit Auto Show, Spy Photos, Sedan, Geneva Motor Show, Europe, Hatchback, Audi, Luxury

The intrepid spy shooters at KGP have caught the 2011 Audi A7 uncovered in a testing lab in Germany ahead of its official reveal next year, and the sleek, low-slung saloon/coupe hasn’t lost much of its flavor in the transition from showcar to production.

Although the shots don’t give us a clear view of the front fascia, the headlamps and front clip have obviously been toned down from its conceptual predecessor shown earlier this year the Detroit Auto Show. However, its sloping roofline and well-integrated hatch would appear to prove that at least one automaker can create a five-door hatch that’s simultaneously attractive and functional.

If our tea leaf-reading is accurate, we’d expect to see the A7 make its production debut either in Detroit this January or at the Geneva Motor Show in March. Powertrain options should include everything from Audi’s turbocharged 2.0-liter inline four to the S4’s supercharged six, along with a V8 option further down the line. And if the BMW 5 Series GranTurismo proves to be a hit in the States, we won’t be at all surprised if Audi follows suit and by offering the A7 in North America.

Spy Shots: 2011 Audi A7 caught in production form originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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