Author: Serkadis

Online privacy issues are a big deal these days and a couple of the biggest web companies online, Google and Facebook, have been feeling the heat lately. Both are taking steps in ensuring that they meet the users’ demands. Google is now offering a way to opt out of analytics tracking with Google Analytics on any website that uses the tool. User… (read more)

Via Prison Planet.com » Commentary

The Economic Collapse
May 26, 2010

As the number of bank failures in the United States continues to accelerate, many analysts are warning that we could soon see unprecedented changes in the U.S. banking industry.  In fact, there are some economists that are warning that we could be about to witness the greatest banking consolidation in U.S. history.  As dozens of small and medium size banks have failed, the megabanks have systematically been gobbling up larger and larger slices of market share.  In fact, if current trends continue, it doesn’t take much imagination to foresee a future where the entire U.S. banking industry has been consolidated down to between 5 and 10 “superbanks”.  So would that be so bad?  Well, yes it would.  It would represent a massive shift in financial power away from the American people to big, global corporate banks.  But if you happen to be a fan of big, global corporate banks perhaps you will really love what is about to happen to the U.S. banking industry.   

On Friday, federal regulators seized Pinehurst Bank, which brought the total number of U.S. banks closed this year to 73.  At this point in 2009, only 36 banks had failed.

That means that the number of bank failures has doubled compared to the same time period a year ago.

Is that a good trend?

Well, it is a good trend if you are one of the megabanks that is gobbling up the remnants of these banks that were ”small enough to fail”. 

And the sad thing is that we are likely to see dozens and dozens more small and medium size banks fail in the coming months.

The FDIC recently announced that the number of banks on its “problem list” climbed to 702 at the end of 2009.  That is extremely alarming considering the fact that only 552 banks were on the problem list at the end of September 2009 and only 252 banks that were on the problem list at the end of 2008.

In fact, the FDIC is expecting so many banks to fail that they are opening up new offices just to handle all the expected failures.  The FDIC has opened a massive 100,000 square foot satellite office near Chicago that will house up to 500 temporary staffers and contractors to manage receiverships and liquidate assets from what they are expecting will be a gigantic wave of failed Midwest banks.  Not only that, but the FDIC has also opened similar offices in Irvine, California and Jacksonville, Florida. 

But can the FDIC realistically handle all of these bank failures?

No.

The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that is basically flat broke. 

So if the FDIC completely runs out of money, where will all the necessary funds come from?

From U.S. taxpayers of course.

It seems that we are the ultimate bailout machine.

Meanwhile, the biggest U.S. banks are hoarding cash in preparation for hard times.  In fact, the biggest banks in the United States cut their collective small business lending balance by another 1 billion dollars in November 2009.  That drop was the seventh monthly decline in a row.

The truth is that in 2009, the biggest U.S. banks posted their sharpest decline in lending since 1942. 

So what were they doing with their money?

Well, thanks to the Federal Reserve, the megabanks were using the U.S. Treasury carry trade to make huge gobs of cash.  In fact, the little game that they are playing with U.S. Treasuries is working so well that four of the biggest U.S. banks (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup) had a “perfect quarter” with zero days of trading losses during the first quarter of 2010.

The truth is that the game is rigged to benefit the largest financial institutions, and they are slowly but surely gobbling up the entire U.S. banking market.  

Back in 2000, the “Big Four” U.S. banks – Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo – held approximately 22 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions.  As of June 30th of last year that figure was up to 39 percent.

The Founding Fathers of this country warned us of the danger of big banks getting too much power, but we have not listened to their warnings.

Now we have monolithic global banks that are so immense in size that we seem almost powerless to control them.

In fact, the six biggest banks in the United States (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo) now possess assets equivalent to 60 percent of America’s gross national product.

And there is every indication that they are only going to get bigger and more dominant – especially if there is a major economic downturn ahead.

Unfortunately, that is what a number of respected economists are forecasting.

For example, Bob Chapman of the International Forecaster recently warned his readers that things could get really, really bad by the end of 2010…. 

It should interest you to know that my Intel source inside the Fed says absolutely no later than November the banking system should implode. Presently 75% of banks have problems and that the top 5 banks will take over all the others in a general nationalization. There is tremendous fear and uneasiness in the banking world.

Now, let us hope that Bob Chapman’s source is wrong.  Certainly the U.S. banking system is in a state of complete and total chaos, but hopefully we can make it into 2011 without a complete implosion of the banking industry. 

However, Bob Chapman has been in the industry for decades and he would not have put out a warning like this without good reason.  Let us just pray that what this source is warning of does not actually come to pass.

But Bob Chapman is not the only one warning of difficult times ahead. 

CNBC recently quoted Brian Kelly, the founder of Kanundrum Capital, as saying that the chances of a global depression breaking out have increased dramatically in recent days….

“Two weeks ago I would give the global depression scenario a one percent chance, but the chances have increased to 10 percent today.”

In fact, world famous economist Nouriel Roubini is absolutely convinced that there is a good deal of economic trouble ahead of us….

“We are still in the middle of this crisis and there is more trouble ahead of us, even if there is a recovery. During the great depression the economy contracted between 1929 and 1933, there was the beginning of a recovery, but then a second recession from 1937 to 1939. If you don’t address the issues, you risk having a double-dip recession and one which is at least as severe as the first one.”

So will the end of 2010 be a very difficult time for the U.S. economy?

Only time will tell.

But what does seem certain is that small and medium size banks will continue to fail in large numbers, and the big dominant banks will continue to gobble up market share.

We are witnessing a dramatic consolidation of the U.S. banking industry, and the only question seems to be how fast it is all going to play out.

Via Prison Planet.com » World News

Tobias Buck and Roula Khalaf
Financial Times
Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

At 11am on Wednesday, hundreds of thousands of Israelis will hear a warning siren and dash to bunkers and safe rooms across the country. The army and rescue services will practise their response to a massive missile attack, marking the climax of an ambitious home-front exercise.

Despite government assurances that the drill is a yearly routine, political leaders in Lebanon and Syria have accused Israel of warmongering.

Whether by accident or design, the five-day exercise has fuelled speculation over a renewed military clash between Israel and Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia group backed by Iran and Syria.

Israel’s northern neighbours are not alone in voicing concerns about the potential for more bloodshed. In recent weeks, Israeli politicians have repeatedly warned that the threat posed by Hizbollah’s rapidly improving arsenal is reaching a critical level.

Full article here

EUR/USD (short term):. The pair should fall to it’s support after a limited rebound. Sell under: 1.2400. TP at 1.2250 and 1.2180. Key levels: 1.2045, 1.2180, 1.2250, 1.2324, 1.2400, 1.2480, 1.2600

GBP/USD (short term): The pair should fail to break resistance. Sell under 1.4450. TP 1.4330 and 1.4260. Key levels: 1.4150, 1.4260, 1.4330, 1.4414, 1.4450, 1.4530, 1.4635

EUR/JPY (short term): The pair is likely to break above declining trend line resistance. Buy above 110.40. TP 111.90 and 113.00. Key levels: 107.65, 108.80, 110.40, 111.32, 111.90, 113.00, 114.50

GBP/JPY (short term): The pair is on the upside. Buy above 129.00. TP 130.50 and 131.50. Key levels: 126.75, 127.70, 129.00, 130.17, 130.50, 131.50, 132.80

Click for actual Quotes

Click for Economic Calendar

Source: Forexyard

Related posts:

1. Technical Analysis /12:10 GMT/ (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY) 25.05.2010.
2. Technical Analysis /latest update/ (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY) 22.05.2010.
3. Technical Analysis /11:50 GMT/ (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY) 21.05.2010.

Via Prison Planet.com » World News

Kathrin Hille
Financial Times
Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

The commander of US forces in the Pacific has warned that China’s military is more aggressively asserting its territorial claims in regional waters.

Admiral Robert Willard told the Financial Times: “There has been an assertiveness that has been growing over time, particularly in the South China Sea and in the East China Sea.”

He said China’s extensive claims to islands and waters in the region were “generating increasing concern broadly across the region and require address”.

The admiral’s remarks follow complaints by Japan in recent weeks about aggressive behaviour from a Chinese coastguard vessel in contested waters and a Chinese military helicopter in international waters.

Full article here

Via Prison Planet.com » Sci Tech

James Delingpole
London Telegraph
May 26, 2010

IPCC lies, cheats, distorts again. Yes, all right, it is a bit of a “dog bites man” or “pizza found to contain mozzarella and tomato resting on dough base” kind of story. But on the day in which Britain’s new Prime Minister announced in the Queen’s speech that one of his government’s main goals is to “combat climate change”, it’s perhaps just as well to remind ourselves of the kind of junk science and misinformation that is inspiring his green policies. (Hat tip: Barry Woods)

This one comes from the great Canadian blogger Donna Laframboise, who has noticed that the most recent report (2007) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change liberally cited a scientific paper which wasn’t published until 29 months after the cut off date for submissions.

“Ah what’s 29 months between friends?” you might say. But as Laframbroise rightly observes it strips the process of its integrity.

If IPCC authors are to accurately describe the scientific literature, an agreed-upon cutoff date is required. If expert reviewers are to comment on the IPCC’s use of that literature, they must be afforded adequate opportunity to examine it.

More sinister still, though, is the way the IPCC report has twisted the paper – by one David G Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey – for its own ends. Here’s what Vaughan’s paper said about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).

Since most of WAIS is not showing change, it now seems unlikely that complete collapse of WAIS, with the threat of a 5-m rise in sea level, is imminent in the coming few centuries.

Note that phrase “it now seems unlikely”.

Now see how the IPCC interprets Vaughan’s paper:

If the Amundsen Sea sector were eventually deglaciated, it would add about 1.5 m to sea level, while the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would account for about 5 m (Vaughan, 2007).

Yes, yes, IPCC no doubt it WOULD. But as the report you cite to prove it made pretty explicit: IT AIN’T GOING TO HAPPEN.

Full article here

Via Prison Planet.com » Prison Planet

James Kirkup and Andrew Porter
London Telegraph
Monday, May 24th, 2010

Workers who have saved to invest in shares and property will face higher taxes on their assets, the Government confirmed.

The Queen’s Speech ended hopes of a climb-down on tax rises for the middle classes, with an unqualified commitment to increase capital gains tax. It also set out plans to raise taxes on the pay of those earning more than £45,000 and paved the way for bringing forward an increase in the retirement age.

As part of the coalition deal between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, David Cameron accepted many of the principles of Lib Dem tax policy.

Drawing protests from some senior Conservatives and many Tory voters, the coalition is drawing up plans to make middle-ranking professionals pay more tax while low-earners pay less. The most controversial proposal is for an increase in CGT, the tax applied to sales of assets including second homes, buy-to-let properties and share portfolios.

Full article here

Via Prison Planet.com » World News

Richard Pendlebury and Christian Gysin
UK Daily Mail
Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

After the unrewarding task of trying to keep Labour in power, Lord Mandelson is no doubt relieved to be back in the old routine – courting the rich and famous.

The former Business Secretary is pictured in the passenger seat of a black open-top Ferrari Daytona Spider, worth at least £250,000. At the wheel is his friend, 38-year-old banking heir Nat Rothschild, who was offering hospitality to the Labour peer at one of his chalets in Klosters, in the Swiss Alps.

The picture is proof, if it were needed, that Lord Mandelson has a taste for the kind of high life that would otherwise be beyond his purse.

Of course, now he has departed Westminster following the general election defeat, the chance of making his own fortune beckons again.

Yesterday there were reports that he could be the next chief executive of the troubled petroleum giant BP. Anji Hunter, Tony Blair’s former gatekeeper, has previously served as the company’s communications chief.

Full article here

Yahoo Inc. and Nokia have joined forces in providing each other applications that will help them penetrate in a wider scale the growing market of Internet and mobile users. Yahoo will use Nokia’s navigation and location services, while Nokia will maximize Yahoo’s mail and messaging capabilities. Yahoo’s DNA, said CEO Carol Bartz, is made up of partnerships.

And so the company is doing just that. Yahoo is extending its services this time through mobile social networking. It has acquired the social networking site Koprol which is based in Jakarta, Indonesia, cites Cnet. The key is for people to connect with friends, share photos, start discussions, and locate establishments while on the go. “…we are introducing the Yahoo brand to many new-to-Net users,” explained Senior Vice President Roe Tsou, Asian Region, Yahoo.

Koprol is capable of providing a comprehensive database of activities and resources that Yahoo will utilize to emerge in the growing trend of localized social networks for mobile users. More features and applications that will bring Yahoo’s homepage and services more accessible are on the way. Yahoo is even eyeing for the Blackberry.

Related posts:

1. Yahoo teams up with Nokia for navigation services
2. Yahoo and Nokia team up in online services
3. Facebook On Mobile

The 9^th season champion of a reality TV Show, The Biggest Loser, had already been determined through last Tuesday night’s live finale broadcast by the NBC. The lucky guy who had the grand prize of $250,000 was Michael Ventrella.

Michael Ventrella was a 30-year old deejay from Chicago, Illinois. He stands 6‘3” and weighs 526 lbs at the start of the season. He was the heaviest contestant in the entire history of The Biggest Loser. After six months, he now weighs 262 lbs. which gives him a weight loss of 264 and a 50.19% weight loss percentage. With these results, he was crowned as the winner of the reality TV show.

Ashley Johnston, a 27-year old manager/esthetician from Knoxville, Tennessee, finished the event in second place. Johnston weighs 374 lbs. at the start of the competition and finishes of with 191 lbs. She had loss 183 lbs. and 48.93% weight loss percentage.

Next to Ashley Johnston was Daris George.  George is from Ardmore, Oklahoma and a student of  Oklahoma State University. He is 26 years of age and had entered the competition with a weight of 346 lbs. which went down to 176 lbs. after the six-month duration of the competition. With this result, he finishes the event as the third place.

Related posts:

1. Who Won Biggest Loser 2010?
2. Biggest Loser Season Finale Results
3. The Biggest Loser Make Over Week

Apple’s stock market capitalization (AAPL) has not yet quite surpassed Microsoft’s (MSFT), but the value of its actual business is now higher.

Specifically, Apple’s business is now worth $200 billion, while Microsoft’s is only worth $197 billion*–at least by one simple calculation of enterprise value.

What’s the difference between a company’s stock market capitalization and the value of its actual business (which is referred to as “enterprise value”)?

A company’s stock market capitalization includes the net value of the cash and debt on the company’s books.  To figure out the imputed value of the company’s actual business, therefore, you have to adjust for the value of those other things.

As an example, consider a company with a market capitalization of $1 billion that has $500 million of cash and no debt.  If you were to buy all of the stock in this company, you would spend $1 billion.  When you bought the company, however, you would also acquire the $500 million of cash that came with it, so your net purchase price would only be $500 million.  So the company’s actual business, in this case, would have been worth only $500 million.

If the same company had a $1 billion market capitalization, $500 million of cash, and $500 million of debt, meanwhile, the company’s business (“enterprise value”) would be $1 billion. You would get the $500 million of cash, but you’d also have to pay off the $500 million of debt, so the net cost to buy the company would be $1 billion.

As of yesterday’s stock market close, Apple had a market capitalization of $223 billion.  Apple has $23 billion of cash and no debt*.  Apple’s enterprise value, therefore, is $200 billion (per Yahoo Finance–see clarifying note below*).

Microsoft, meanwhile, had a market capitalization of $228 billion.  Microsoft has $37 billion of cash and $6 billion of debt (per Yahoo Finance).  Microsoft’s enterprise value, therefore, is $197 billion.

So, it’s official: Apple is now worth more than Microsoft.

(And if you don’t consider this an absolutely remarkable turn of events, read this >.  It really puts the changing of the guard over the past decade in perspective.)

---

* As several sharp-eyed readers note, Apple has an unusual method of accounting for some of its cash on hand, which is that it classifies $18 billion of cash as a long-term investment.  (This is because the cash is invested in Treasuries with maturities of more than a year).  When this cash is included in the company’s cash balance, Apple has $42 billion of cash on hand, not $23 billion.  This reduces its enterprise value by $18 billion or so, which still puts it below Microsoft’s, at least for a few more days.  Yahoo Finance’s simple calculation of enterprise value is defensible, but a more detailed analysis of Apple’s liquid assets shows that the market still values Microsoft’s business more highly than Apple’s. 

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Okay, This Really Puts The Microsoft-Apple War In Perspective
• CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Market Cap Just $5 Billion Behind Microsoft
• CHART OF THE DAY: Microsoft Spends Eight Times As Much On R&D As Apple

The power and guile of Cosworth’s long history in Formula One is being infused into the Subaru Impreza.

The result is a turbocharged 395-hp demonic hatch with bolstered brakes and suspension pieces for truly performance-driven enthusiasts: It’s called the Impreza STI CS400.

Here’s the rub: Just 75 copies will be made–exclusively for Great Britain. And they’re all right-hand drive.

But why dwell on that. Let’s imagine the possibilities and dive into the technicalities, which are worth knowing.

Cosworth uses its own turbocharging technology to boost output from 296 hp to 395 ponies, and maximum delivery is available at the lower threshold of 5,750 rpm (6,000 rpm was required for the stock version.) The engine is also fortified with high-performance pistons crafted in the same manner as Cosworth F1, heavy-duty cylinder studs and a higher-pressure oil pump. The turbocharger also gets a new compressor design.

These upgrades allow the CS400 to hit 62 mph in 3.7 seconds and run the quarter-mile in 12.75 seconds. Top speed is limited to 155 mph. The six-speed manual transmission gets carbon synchromesh for the top three gear ratios. The car rides on all-wheel drive with a 50/50 torque split as the default stetting that can be varied according to the situation.

The chassis was reworked with Eibach coil springs with Bilstein inserts. Ride height was lowered 10 millimeters in front, and larger ventilated disc brakes were added in front with six-piston calipers. Inside are Recaro seats and piano-black center stack and trim accents.

Again, the CS400 isn’t set to come to the States. But if it did, it would cost the equivalent of better than $61,000.

For more

Source: Car news, reviews and auto show stories

Singer, songwriter Alicia Keys agreed when U2 band member-philantropist Bono reminded her that fame is a currency – either use it for good or lose it, shares DailyMail. Now that she has become famous, Keys said she must make good out of it having witnessed people suffer around the world. And so her charity Keep A Child Alive was born. It is a foundation that provides health care and support to children and families affected by HIV/AIDS in Africa. It has raised $2.4 million so far and helped 250,000 people in eight different sites.

“I was so moved to meet people in Africa who have so little and yet are so generous, people who’ve been to hell and back but retain their dignity and are fighting for their dreams. The charity gives people the chance to chase those dreams.”

Among the celebrities who support the cause are Gwyneth Paltrow, Denzel Washington, Magic Johnson, Kirsten Dunst, Paul McCartney, Bono, Avril Lavigne, and Ashley Simpson, to name a few.

Keys will host the Black Ball 2010, May 27 at St. John Smith’s Square, London. Black Ball is an annual fund-raiser event featuring performances by Alicia Keys and various artists.

Related posts:

1. Greg Giraldo As Celebrity Guest For NBC’s The Marriage Ref
2. Chaz Bono Became a Man Today
3. Chaz Bono: Cher’s daughter is now a man! No More Chastity Bono

American Idol 2010 made its final episode for this season last night as the two finalists Crystal Bowersox and Lee DeWyze gave their all-out performances.

Bowersox sang “Me and Bobby McGee” by Janis Joplin, then “Black Velvet” by Alannah Myles and “Up the Mountain”, that would might be her first potential single.
After her final song, Simon told Bowersox “That was outstanding.” Bowersox made an awe-struck with audiences with her potential voice.

Lee DeWyze on the other hand, sang “Everybody Hurts”, “The Boxer”, and potential single “Beautiful Day”. His performance though dissapointed the judges and some of the audiences. Simon was then who was really disappointed later that night on Lee’s performance as he believed that since the beginning of the show that DeWyze had the ability to win American Idol 2010.

The American idol finale was considered as a ‘love fest’ for Crystal Bowersox, departing judge Simon Cowell.

Related posts:

1. “Up to the Mountain” performance by Crystal Bowersox – American Idol 2010
2. Lee Dewyze Sings ‘Kiss From a Rose’: Did the Judges like it?
3. Judges Pick Songs for American Idol’s Top Three

Sometimes, great things come from the smallest of changes. If you believe that, then you might like to try out the latest addition to the Gmail Labs repository. A small interface tweak that may come a long way in terms of usability, this new Labs gadget moves the icon bar in the inbox to the left of the message titles. Normally, these helpful… (read more)

Markets may be buoyed somewhat on news that the OECD has issued an upgrade of the global economy, as growth picks up faster than expected.

Here’s the full release:

—-

26/05/2010 – Economic activity in OECD countries is picking up faster than expected but volatile sovereign debt markets and overheating in emerging-market economies are presenting increasing risks to the recovery, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.

Gross domestic product (GDP) across OECD countries is projected to rise by 2.7% this year and by 2.8% in 2011. These are upward revisions from the previous, November 2009, forecasts of OECD-wide GDP growth of 1.9% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011.

In the US, activity is projected to rise by 3.2% this year and by a further 3.2% in 2011. Euro area growth is forecast at 1.2% this year and 1.8% next while, in Japan, GDP is expected to expand by 3.0% in 2010 and by 2.0% in 2011.

Trade flows are rising again. Strong growth in China and other emerging markets is helping to pull other countries out of recession. But at the same time, the risk of overheating and inflation is growing in emerging markets. A boom-bust scenario cannot be ruled out, requiring a further tightening in countries such as China and India. The knock-on  effect would be slower growth in other regions. Exchange rate flexibility could ease some of the pressure on Chinese monetary policy and provide more scope for addressing domestic inflation, says the OECD. 

Instability in sovereign debt markets poses another serious risk. It has highlighted the need for the euro area to strengthen its institutional and operational architecture. Bolder measures need to be taken to ensure fiscal discipline, says the Outlook.Several countries are already taking early action to enhance the credibility of their fiscal consolidation plans and this is very welcome.

“This is a critical time for the world economy,”said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “Coordinated international efforts prevented the recession from becoming more severe but we continue to face huge  challenges. Many OECD countries need to reconcile support to a still fragile recovery with the need to move to a more sustainable fiscal path. We also need to take into account the international spill-overs of domestic policies. Now more than ever, we need to maintain co-operation at an international level.”

With a huge debt burden weighing on many OECD countries and the strengthening recovery, the emergency fiscal measures provided by governments to tackle the crisis must be removed by 2011 at the latest, the Outlook says. It adds that the pace of such action must be appropriate to particular conditions and the state of public finances in each country.

To support growth as budgets are being tightened, macroeconomic, financial and structural policies need to be linked. Spending cuts or tax rises should focus on areas that are the least harmful to growth. Fiscal rules could enhance the credibility of plans to strengthen public finances. Reforming  product and labour markets to enhance competitivity must also be part of the strategy.

Although economic activity is picking up, the growth in jobs is not keeping pace. The number of unemployed has risen by 16 million in OECD countries in the past two years. The Outlook says the unemployment rate may now be peaking at an average 8.5% across OECD economies and is likely to fall only slowly in the near term. It adds that governments must make room in their budgets for cost-effective labour market programmes that support workers at greatest risk of becoming long-term unemployed.

Unemployment rate (% of labour force)

The Outlook also contains some scenarios that go out as far as 2025, and which show that without strong policy decisions, growth will remain mediocre, unemployment and fiscal deficits high and imbalances persistent. On the other hand, a combined package of measures, implemented from 2011 onwards – involving fiscal consolidation in OECD countries, as well as exchange rate re-alignments and structural reforms in most regions of the world – could add as much as 2 – 3 % to the baseline scenario of OECD  global growth.

Selected analysis and data for individual countries, webcast of the OECD Economic Outlook news conference are available at www.oecd.org/oecdeconomicoutlook.  To obtain a pdf copy of the Outlook, journalists are invited to contact [email protected].

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As we’ve noted, Apple’s market capitalization is now one relatively good stock-market day away from surpassing Microsoft’s.

This may not be surprising to the folks who have fallen in love with Apple’s products in the past several years, but to those who were around in the late 1990s, when a collapsing Apple was kept alive by a cash injection from Microsoft, it’s remarkable.

And here are a couple of statistics that really put it in perspective:

• As of yesterday’s close, Apple had a market cap of $223 billion, versus Microsoft’s $228 billion.

• A decade ago, when Steve Ballmer took over as CEO of Microsoft and Steve Jobs had recently reclaimed the CEO slot at Apple, Apple had a market cap of $16 billion and Microsoft had a market cap of $556 billion [Nick Wingfield, WSJ]

In the past decade, in other words, Apple has gained about $210 billion of market value and Microsoft has lost about $225 billion. Put differently, a decade ago, Microsoft was worth $440 billion more than Apple.

Steve Jobs has certainly earned his $1 salary.  And it’s a good thing Steve Ballmer is paid $1.25 million a year–because the value of his stock in the company has been cut in half.

By one key measure, moreover, Apple has already surpassed Microsoft’s value.  As of yesterday’s close, once the companies’ stock market capitalizations are adjusted for the value of the cash and debt on each company’s balance sheet (“enterprise value”), Apple’s business was worth $200 billion and Microsoft’s was worth $197 billion.

Talk about a changing of the guard.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• CHART OF THE DAY: Microsoft Spends Eight Times As Much On R&D As Apple
• CHART OF THE DAY: Apple Market Cap Just $5 Billion Behind Microsoft
• "The Real Reason Microsoft’s Robbie Bach Was Fired"

Just a quick chart here for your. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (commodities) index has hit death cross, by which we mean the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day one. For some this is a huge negative sign, though at this point bearishness seems rampant across the space. We told you back on the 19th that this was about to happen.

Join the conversation about this story »

It’s been interesting to watch the analysts change their positions over the course of the last few months.  Two of my favorite analysts Andrew Garthwaite at Credit Suisse and Teun Draaisma at Morgan Stanley came into the year with remarkably similar outlooks to my own: the economy would remain strong in H1, but would weaken as the year wore on.  Both were much more bearish on the full year outlook than most other analysts on Wall Street.  Interestingly, both of them folded on their bearish outlooks as the equity markets chugged higher into April.  At that time, I was revising my H1 outlook, building my first short positions in two years and becoming more bearish as the problems in Greece appeared like a true game changer.   A few months later Draaisma and Garthwaite are looking terribly wrong, but Garthwaite isn’t swaying from his bullish outlook.  In a recent note he provided 5 reasons to remain bullish.  Perhaps he will redeem himself:

1)   Market is too pessimistic on global macro outlook: the collapse in bonds yields, along with this week’s decline in the gold price and yesterday’s sell-off in the Australian dollar versus the Yen (7%), suggests that markets are discounting a big deflationary shock. Yet, we do not see this. All the best lead indicators are strong, though they will likely roll-over owing to stock market weakness. The global PMIs are consistent with 4% GDP growth (see page 5 for all charts) and the best two lead indicators of US growth – ISM new orders and consumer confidence expectations – are consistent with growth about 3%. Our economists forecast global GDP of 4.4% next year (2.4% in Europe and 2.9% in the US).

2)   Valuation: The US equity risk premium (ERP) is 6.1% if we just use two-year forward IBES numbers and then revert earnings to trend (see Figure 7 below). The long-run average ERP is 3.5%, while our target (or warranted) ERP is 4.5% (the warranted equity risk premium depends on ISM and credit spreads – and assumes a modest deteriorating in both: ISM falling to 55 from 60 and BAA spreads widening to 3% from 2.4%- clearly if we were assuming a recession then ISM would fall to 40 and the BAA spread widen to 5% and the target equity risk premium would rise to 6.2% but as stated already we are not assuming a recession). Even if we revert S&P 500 reported earnings back to their post-1920 trend of $64 (compared to 12-month forward operating earnings of $87.5), the ERP is now 4.5%, almost at our target level.

3) We note that the CDX HY spread at 670bps, is only 0.4 standard deviations above its average, the same level it was at when the S&P 500 was at 1,300. Furthermore, the 5 year / 5 year forward inflation rate is 2.2%, versus a crisis low of nearly zero.

4)   Global earnings revisions are at an all-time high (see Figure 23 below). Consensus revenues estimates are, we think, still too low. For Europe as a whole consensus revenue is 5% below nominal GDP in 2009 and 2010 when aggregated and more so for cyclical sectors. Additionally, the weakness of the Euro, if it hits €/$1.20, should directly and indirectly add nearly 14% to European EPS as well as 1% to GDP. To gauge how worried the markets are about earnings, we can look at dividend swaps market, which are discounting a 13% decline in DPS between end 2009 and 2013 in Continental Europe (and a 4% rise in the UK). This seems too pessimistic too us.

5)   Investors are still conservatively positioned we think. Mutual funds have 45% of their total assets in equities compared to a long-run average of 51%. Money market funds are still 20% of market cap (versus a long-run average of 18%). Since the low in the equity market, we have seen retail buy 99bn of bonds, while they sold $88bn of equities.

Source: Credit Suisse

This guest post previously appeared at The Pragmatic Capitalist >

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McLaren Automotive celebrated the 20th anniversary of the start of the F1 program by inviting F1 owners past and present to a celebration dinner at the McLaren Technology Centre in Woking, England. The owners were treated to a display of 21 McLaren F1 road and race cars, the largest number of F1 cars ever assembled in one place.

It all started in 1988, when McLaren made the decision to expand from Formula One and design and build what it called “the finest sports car the world had ever seen.” In March 1990, the team created to build that car came together for the first time.

Just two years later, the McLaren F1 road car was launched on May 28, 1992, in Monaco, with the first production car delivered to its owner in December 1993.

Now in its 20th-anniversary year, many still consider the McLaren F1 one of the greatest cars of all time. McLaren says its exclusivity, technical innovation, racing provenance, revolutionary packaging and extraordinary driving experience have made it an icon.

Hard to argue with that.

The F1 defined the McLaren road car DNA: low weight, efficient packaging, superb quality, innovative design and an outstanding driving experience. The car was launched at a price of about $750,000 in 1994, and over the course of the next four years 64 F1, five F1 LM and three F1 GT road cars were produced, together with 28 F1 GTR race cars. An additional six prototypes were produced.

In 1994, after pressure from owners, McLaren developed a racing version of the F1 road car to run in the FIA’s GT1 class. The F1 GTR won the 1995 GT1 Championship as well as Le Mans. In fact, McLaren not only won but dominated the rain-soaked endurance race, finishing in first, third, fourth, fifth and 13th.

The F1 GTR secured for McLaren a unique position in racing history, as the only manufacturer to win the Formula One world championship, the Indianapolis 500 and the Le Mans 24 Hours.

McLaren decided to celebrate the extraordinary Le Mans result by creating five F1 LM road cars, one for each F1 that finished. Launched in McLaren Orange, as used on Bruce McLaren’s race cars the 1960s and ’70s and with a derestricted race engine, the LM is not only the most powerful of all F1 variants, but also the most valuable. F1 fans will recognize this as the car which Lewis Hamilton has set his heart on owning.

By 1998, there were a total of 106 built, and its production run was complete.

McLaren’s celebration of the 20th anniversary of the F1 will continue throughout the year. McLaren enthusiasts will have the opportunity to see more F1s at this summer’s Goodwood Festival of Speed, which takes place at the famous English motorsport venue July 2-4.

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