Author: Serkadis

  • Ford 3-cylinder EcoBoost still “ways off” for the U.S.

    Ford Start Concept

    FoMoCo confirmed that the new 1.0L 3-cylinder EcoBoost that made its debut at the 2010 Beijing Motor Show in the Start Concept is headed for production. However, the automaker has not given a schedule as to when we might see it in vehicles.

    According to a Ford source, the timetable for a U.S. version will likely have to wait for the proper vehicle.

    “For North America, it is a ways off,” said the source. “It certainly has been talked about to come here, but there is not a vehicle for it yet.”

    Once vehicle that is under consideration for the U.S. market that could use the 3-cylinder EcoBoost is the next-generation Ka, which is currently sold in Europe.

    Click here for our original post on the Ford Start Concept.

    Ford Start Concept:

    – By: Kap Shah

    Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)


  • 2011 Mercedes-Benz E-Class L unveiled for China

    2011 Mercedes-Benz E-Class L

    Joining the 2011 Audi A8 L and the BMW 5-Series Long-Wheelbase, Mercedes-Benz has unveiled their extended version of the E-Class at the 2010 Beijing Motor Show. Known as the Mercedes-Benz E-Class L, the China specific model gains an extra 14 centimeters of legroom in the rear.

    At launch, the new Mercedes-Benz E-Class L will get two gasoline engine choices including the E 260 CGI BlueEFFICIENCY, using the latest direct injection technology, and E 300. Both models are offered with automatic transmissions.

    Mercedes-Benz said that the E-Class segment is currently enjoying a huge boom in China with a total of 122,000 vehicles sold in the class in 2008. Experts are now expect that figure to exceed 200,000 in 2010.

    “Long versions dominate the segment with a share of close to 90 percent. Customers are primarily entrepreneurs and the self-employed, many of whom use the services of a chauffeur,” Mercedes-Benz says.

    2011 Mercedes-Benz E-Class L:

    Press Release:

    Two world and two Asia premieres: Mercedes-Benz at “Auto China 2010″

    World premiere at “Auto China 2010″: The new E-Class L: defining the new standard of premium executive car

    – Spacious: an extra 14 centimetres of legroom in the rear
    – Dynamic: two petrol engines producing 150 and 180 kW
    – Comfortable: adaptive damping system and automatic transmission
    as standard

    Specially tailored for the growing market for luxury saloons in China, the long-version of the new Mercedes E-Class will be celebrating its world premiere at “Auto China 2010″ With its inclined radiator surround, muscular-shaped rear fender and well-defined boot lid, the design of the new E-Class Lembodies status and effortless superiority in a number of its details. Now available in a lengthened version, the model is even better positioned to meet the requirements of the Chinese market in this segment. The vehicle’s refined appointments also help to create an extremely impressive and comfortable interior.

    With a length of 5,012 millimetres and a wheelbase of 3,014 millimetres, the new model for China has gained an extra 140 millimetres in both of these areas compared with the saloon model sold in the rest of the world. As a result, in the rear of the five-seater vehicle passengers can enjoy an extra 140 millimetres of legroom compared with the regular wheelbase E-Class, a model already renowned for its comfort. Another added touch of comfort: the front seats are also electrically adjustable from the rear.

    In addition to the generously dimensioned interior, the vehicle’s high level of safety – typical a Mercedes-Benz car- also sets standards. Unique features include the PRE-SAFE® occupant protection system, Rear Seat Safety package with belt force limiters on the outer seats and rear side airbags, as well as ATTENTION ASSIST drowsiness detection. A luggage compartment volume of 540 litres and a compact turning circle of 11.25 metres also represent class-leading values for this segment. At the time of its commercial release inJune2010, buyers will have a choice of two petrol engines producing 150 kW (204 hp) and 180 kW (245 hp), as well as several luxury appointment levels. Additional engine variants are expected to become available at a later date.

    The E-Class segment is currently enjoying a boom in China: a total of around 122,000 vehicles from this class were sold there in 2008, but according to experts this figure is already expected to exceed 200,000 in 2010. Long versions dominate the segment with a share of close to 90 percent. Customers are primarily entrepreneurs and the self-employed, many of whom use the services of a chauffeur.

    Produced in Germany, the new E-Class Saloon (W 212) has already sold more than 12,000 units in the People’s Republic of China since the middle of 2009. The new E-Class L (V 212), on the other hand, is produced locally at Beijing BenzAutomotive Co.,Ltd (BBAC) with a local share in value terms of more than 40 percent. BBAC is a joint venture between Daimler AG and its long-term partner Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Company (BAIC). The E-Class models are produced in a new plant in the Beijing Development Area in the southeast of the city.

    Engine and suspension: the highest level of comfort is the trump card

    From launch, the new E-Class L will benefit from a choice of two refined petrol engines featuring high pulling power in the form of the E 260 CGI BlueEFFICIENCY , using the latest direct injection technology, and E 300. Both models are offered with automatic transmissions that are ideally suited to the respective engine characteristics. Furthermore, transmission control is intelligent and adjusts the shift points adaptively to match the driving profile of the driver.

    The AGILITY CONTROL suspension with selective damping system as standard forms the basis for the highest level of ride comfort. Ground clearance has also been increased. The standard Direct-Steer system provides particular convenience at slow speeds or when parking since, in conjunction with the speed-dependent service brake, steering effort is reduced thanks to the direct ratio.

    Appointments: a high degree of luxury as standard

    E260 CGI ELEGANCE, E260 CGI AVANTGARDE and E300 AVANTGARDE are the three appointment lines which will be available for the long version of the E-Class when it launches in China. Typical of the brand is the extensive scope of appointments available as standard. The ELEGANCE version already comes, among other things, with bi-xenon headlamps, adaptive ILS (Intelligent Light System), electric sliding sunroof, automatic air conditioning and COMAND DVD system.

    Additional highlights of the E 260 CGI AVANTGARDE version includeselectric panoramic sliding sunroof, COMANDAPS with DVD changer, THERMATIC air conditioning system, heated rear seats and residual heat system. The E 300 Avantgarde also features a Rear Seat Entertainment System (two large 20.3 cm screens in the backs of the front seat head restraints), KEYLESS-GO electronic drive authorisation system and remote boot closing.

    – By: Omar Rana


  • Salão de Pequim 2010: Citroen Metropolis Concept

    Citroen Metropolis Concept

    Após liberar as primeiras imagens do conceito Metropolis, a Citroen o apresentou no Salão do Automóvel de Pequim onde, apesar de ainda não revelar qual será seu futuro, pelo menos nos deu algumas informações adicionais, novas fotos e video de seu conceito hibrido.

    Primeiro veiculo desenvolvido pelo centro de design do grupo PSA Peugeot/ Citroen de Xangai, ele pega carona no design dos últimos veículos da Citroen como o novo DS3 e o conceito GqbyCitroen. O conceito Citroen Metropolis utiliza a mesma base do C3 e Peugeot 407.

    De acordo com a companhia francesa, o sistema de motorização hibrido do Metropolis oferece uma potencia total de 460 cavalos, oriundas de um motor V6 de 2.0 litros movido a gasolina e um elétrico de 41 kW. Eles trabalham em conjunto com um cambio de sete velocidades e dupla-embreagem e tração nas quatro rodas.

    No aguardo de maiores informações, curtam as novas fotos e vídeo do conceito hibrido Citroen Metropolis que, caso seja levado a produção, poderá brigar na mesma categoria do BMW Serie 7, Audi A8 e Mercedes-Benz Classe S.

    Citroen Metropolis Concept
    Citroen Metropolis ConceptCitroen Metropolis ConceptCitroen Metropolis ConceptCitroen Metropolis Concept

    Citroen Metropolis Concept
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    Fonte: TheMotorReport


  • BMW exibe seu conceito no Concorso d’Eleganza Villa d’Este

    Imagens da réplica histórica da BMW

    Depois de muitos meses de trabalho duro, a BMW apresentou finalmente o seu conceito no Concorso d’Eleganza Villa d’Este, carro este que foi uma cópia fiél do antigo modelo 328 Kamm Coupé, carro que venceu mais de 220 corridas e entre elas, a vitória em Mille Miglia que completa o seu 70º aniversário.

    O conceito usado no concurso foi inspirado no carro vencedor dessa corrida de 1940 e foi exibido lado a lado com o modelo original, que começou a ser trabalhado desde o início da década de 90.

    O resultado final foi surpreendente, é curioso ver um carro igual a esse correndo pelas ruas e chega a trazer certa nostalgia dos velhos tempos. Confiram a seguir as imagens da réplica do Kamm Coupé.

    Imagens da réplica histórica da BMW
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    Via | Autoblog.it


  • More than 6,600 in the U.S. put down $99 to reserve Nissan LEAF

    2011 Nissan LEAF

    It was reported just last week that pre-orders of the Nissan Leaf have reached 3,754 units in three weeks in its domestic market after launching the pre-order process in Japan on April 1. That exceeds half of the company’s sales target for FY2010, which is 6,000 units.

    As of Friday morning, more than 6,600 people in the U.S. have reserved the Leaf, just a few days after Nissan started taking reservation for its new electric-vehicle. The reservations for the Leaf come from potential buyers in the United States who paid a $99 refundable deposit.

    Prices for the 2011 Nissan Leaf will start at $32,780 or $25,280 with a federal tax-credit. That works out to a lease payment of $349 a month.

    Click here to read news on the Nissan Leaf.

    Refresher: Power for the Nissan Leaf comes from a 107-hp electric-motor that runs on power supplied by lithium-ion cells. On a full-charge, the Nissan Leaf allows for a driving range of 100 miles with a top speed of 87 mph. A full charge takes up to 8 hours on a standard 200V outlet. Buyers can opt for the DC 50kW quick-charger, which recharges the battery up to 80 percent in under 30 minutes.

    2011 Nissan Leaf:

    2010 Nissan LEAF EV 2010 Nissan LEAF EV 2010 Nissan LEAF EV 2010 Nissan LEAF EV

    – By: Kap Shah

    Source: Free Press


  • Taylor Swift Is The New Face Of Sony Cyber-shot Cameras

    Taylor Swift, the lovely Grammy Award-winning country pop singer, songwriter and actress is the latest addition to Sony’s never ending cast of celebrity endorsers. We figured it wouldn’t be much longer before Swift popped up on the radar again after CEO and President Sir Howard Stringer introduced her at the beginning of Sony’s CES 2010 press conference. Swift’s work with Sony will appear on national broadcast TV, online, mobile as well as print mediums and focus on the sleek and powerful Cyber-shot DSC-TX7 digital still camera and its intelligent iSweep Panorama feature that captures ultra-wide panoramic shots in one easy “press and sweep” motion; a technology innovation currently only available by Sony. In the commercial, Taylor discovers just how easy it is to take a panoramic shot with the touch of a button – it’s positioned as Taylor gets all of her fans in the picture during a concert.

    “My fans are on the cutting edge, and I’m very interested in the newest and best technologies out there,” said Swift.  “I’m super excited to be working with Sony and using the TX7 camera. The iSweep panorama mode is amazing.”

    The commercial will air tonight on Fox (“House”), CW (“Gilmore Girls”), and on NBC (“Chuck.”) and continue on those networks throughout the summer. Expect the print and radio ads in June.

    Taylor Swift fans can also take advantage of an exclusive series of TX7 cameras that have been engraved with Taylor Swift’s signature and will be on sale at SonyStyle.

    “This campaign with Swift and the TX7 camera is the start of a year-long campaign designed to demonstrate the quality, innovation, style and design that only Sony-branded products stand for,” said Stuart Redsun, Sony Electronics’ senior vice president, corporate marketing. “Sony is the only electronics company that creates entertainment and the only entertainment company that makes electronics. The ‘wow’ factor in our newest ad is clearly illustrated when Taylor puts the TX7 in action.”

    This marketing push is merely the beginning of a larger campaign about innovation. Swift and other celebrity guests will stop by the Sony Innovation Center where all of Sony’s electronics and entertainment assets unite. All aspects of this year-long advertising campaign with interactive content and Sony’s latest innovations will be highlighted at Sony’s Innovations website.

    We gave the Sony Cyber-shot DSC-TX7 several good words in a recent review – it’s pretty great with HD movie recording, MS Duo/SD card compatibility, 3.5 inch touchscreen, TransferJet capability, and much more.

  • Jeremy Clarkson on the BMW X1, “It’s not a car. It’s rubbish.”

    2011 BMW X1

    Jeremy Clarkson has just finished test driving the new BMW X1, which won’t arrive in the United States until 2011, and gave the new German SUV/Crossover one star out of five.

    Click here to get prices on the 2010 BMW X3.

    Clarkson writes:

    I felt BMW might be able to pull off a bit of a winner, then. It had learnt some lessons with the woeful X3 and it really has got styling worked out these days. Plus, BMWs are almost always better to drive than any of the cars with which they compete.

    Sadly, I was to be disappointed. First of all, the X1 looks like a Hyundai that’s been subjected to a thousand years of wind erosion. It’s dreary. And it’s much the same story on the inside, where you are greeted with lots of extremely scratchy plastic and almost no equipment at all.

    He wraps up his article by saying: “If it were a book, it would have no plot and a stupid cover and it would fall to pieces in the sun. But it isn’t a book. And neither is it a car. It’s rubbish.”

    Gotta love Clarkson. Click here to read his full review.

    2011 BMW X1:

    2011 BMW X1 2011 BMW X1 2011 BMW X1

    – By: Omar Rana

    Source: TimesOnline


  • Salão de Pequim 2010: Hyundai Verna Accent

    Imagens do Sedan

    Mostrando algumas novas atrações do Salão de Pequim 2010, a Hyundai apresentou o seu sedan Verna, também chamado de Accent. O carro possui algumas diferenças do cupê sedan Sonata, como dimensões da carroceria.

    O novo Verna Accent vai ser comercializado a partir de julho com duas versões, a primeira com motor a gasolina 1.6 de 105 cv, e a outra versão será com transmissão automática de 4 marchas e motor 1.6 com 120 cv.

    A idéia da Hyundai é de, no futuro, lançar uma linha do Accent com motores a diesel e também um híbrido, como tem sido com seu parente Sonata Hybrid.

    Imagens do Sedan
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    Via | Autoblog.it


  • Where is Nissan design headed? Look at Leaf headlamps and Infiniti M taillights

    2011 Nissan Leaf / 2011 Infiniti M

    For a peek at the future styling for Nissan Motor Co., take a close look at the headlamps on the Nissan Leaf electric-car and the sculpted rear-end of the new 2011 Infiniti M. Front and rear lamps raised from the body surface and pronounced spoilers are two focus points Nissan will use to improve the aerodynamics and handling of vehicles, according to global design chief Shiro Nakamura says.

    The main goal of the design trend is to win young drivers and bring sales of models such as the Nissan Altima up to those with other Japanese rivals.

    Click here to get prices on the 2011 Infiniti M37.

    “The important thing is the front end and the rear end,” Nakamura said. “Traditionally, the lamp surface has been flush with or a continuation of body surface. Now we are disconnecting that surface.”

    Let’s just pray that the Nissan Juke crossover isn’t going to influence anything in the future at Nissan.

    – By: Omar Rana

    Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)


  • Geely has no plans to sell own brand cars in developed markets

    Geely GE

    Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. says that it has no immediate plans to export its own brand cars to developed markets. Speaking at the 2010 Beijing Motor Show, Frank Zhao, the company’s vice president for technology, said that the company will remain focused on the domestic market and other development markets.

    “Regarding (selling to) developed markets, I think that will be something a couple of years down the road,” Zhao said. However, he said that Geely is studying developed markets.

    “We are watching those markets on technology progress and also legal requirements very carefully, but we don’t have any closer structured plan,” Zhao said.

    Geely purchased Volvo from Ford for a total of $1.8 billion for Volvo and its related assets. Speaking on the acquisition, Zhao said that Geely and Volvo operations will be kept separate.

    “Our chairman Li Shufu has made it very clear that Geely is Geely and Volvo is Volvo. That means a lot because we have totally different customer segments and different markets,” he said.

    – By: Stephen Calogera

    Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)


  • New Zealand Moves Forward With Three Strikes; Big Questions Left Unanswered

    New Zealand has been working on putting in place a three strikes law which is only marginally better than the one that it originally tried to pass. Right now, it looks like the “new bill” is moving forward with little opposition, even though there are some serious unanswered questions. Reader Matt Perryman has written up a detailed look at some of the bigger issues, asking about things like the privacy issues and the costs put on ISPs. However, his final two points are perhaps the most important. First, he notes that no details have been released or discussed about this special “copyright tribunal” that will handle these cases, even though that’s pretty central to the whole deal:


    You’re creating a copyright tribunal to handle all of these complaints, and yet we’ve heard exactly nothing about what this will entail, regarding standards of evidence and valid defenses….

    The dilemma: I have a wifi hotspot in my home, attached to my internet account. It’s unsecured. A hacker or ne’er do well logs in to my hotspot, torrents a bunch of movies without my knowledge. Later I receive infringement notices and have to show up at the tribunal. I’m stunned, because I know nothing about it.

    Is my defense of an unsecured wifi hotspot, combined with total ignorance of the matter, valid?

    Change the parameters a little. My hotspot is secured by WEP, and a hacker cracks it (which is amazingly easy to do). Same scenario ensues. Is this a valid defense?

    What about IP spoofing? What if someone frames me for infringement when I’ve not engaged in the activity? Is that a valid defense?

    No matter what you feel the answers to the above questions are, the fact that this is not clear and has not been discussed with regards to New Zealand’s proposed law seems tremendously problematic. It leaves all sorts of questions on the table that could make the law incredibly bad. And the answers to those questions — no matter which way they go, raise questions about this law:


    If these defenses are valid, then the copyright tribunal is redundant; anyone aware of these issues has so many plausible defenses that there is no way to prove infringement.

    If these defenses are not valid, then the tribunal is a sham and a rubber-stamp for industry interests, because there is no way to prove your innocence in light of accusation.

    His final point is that this bill would create a new class of criminals totally at the behest of an industry — which isn’t quite how things are supposed to work:


    You’re criminalizing a non-criminal behavior based on exactly nothing of substance, and at the behest of a private industry.

    I’m of the mindset that if you’re going to criminalize a behavior, you had best meet the burden of proof as to why that behavior is being outlawed.

    Can the NZ MPs do that? If they can, they’re doing their best to hide their evidence. The industry’s own statistics have been called into question and ultimately they’ve been debunked.

    So the obvious question: on what grounds are you justifying this?

    Good questions — but somehow I doubt we’ll get any substantial answers from New Zealand MPs.

    Permalink | Comments | Email This Story





  • President Obama says that auto bailouts have paid off

    President Barack Obama with auto industry executives

    Presidebt Barack Obama said that the government-funded bailouts of the auto industry had paid off. During his weekly radio and Web address on Saturday, Obama said that he will keep pressure for an overhaul of U.S. financial regulations, saying the promising news from the auto industry had not reduced the need for Wall Street changes.

    General Motors and Chrysler both reported progress this week in their government-financed turnarounds. Nonetheless, the Obama administration said that it still forecasts some loss on the taxpayer bailout of both companies to help them recover from the economic downturn.

    GM announced last week that it has made its final payment of $5.8 billion to the U.S. Treasury and Export Development Canada, paying back its government loans in full.

    Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, a senior Republican on the Finance Committee, later said that GM’s payment was coming from U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program funds in an escrow account, rather than from GM earnings.

    – By: Stephen Calogera

    Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)


  • Neanderthal Linkage Uncovered in human DNA

    This question has been on folks minds for over a decade now and we seem to be answering it in the affirmative.
    The only thing that I would add to the discussion is the point that the Neanderthal life way was certainly that of hunter gatherers operating in small hunting bands.
    Our strength was in our ability to create larger bands, first exploiting fisheries and eventually agricultural land.  Thus intermarriage would soon eliminate any smaller separate species fairly smoothly.
    I expect that we may in time sort out the two genomes and develop a clear understanding of their capabilities, though I am sure that this will be a source of surprises.
    In the end, they did not go extinct so much as become tamed and adapted to the human life way which simply seems far too likely.  The only real problem was the possibility of genetic incompatibility.
    We may all be a little bit Neanderthal as study finds species interbred twice with humans

    Last updated at 4:34 PM on 22nd April 2010
    It won’t come as a surprise to anyone wandering around Britain‘s city centres late on a Friday night. But scientists have discovered that most people have a little bit of Neanderthal man in them.
    A major DNA study suggests that our ancestors interbred with the Neanderthals at least twice tens of thousands of years ago  – and that their genes have been carried down the millennia ever since.
    The discovery adds to the mystery surrounding the Neanderthals, an offshoot of the human family tree who vanished in Europe around 25,000 years ago.
    A new study suggests that most of us have some Neanderthal genes in our DNA. Scientists believe our ancestors may have bred twice with the extinct species
    Some researchers have argued that the Neanderthals were driven to extinction by modern humans. But others say the two species merged.
    The new findings come from a genetic analysis of nearly 2,000 people from around the world.
    Dr Jeffrey Long, a genetic anthropologist at the University of New Mexico, who carried out the study, said: ‘It means Neanderthals didn’t completely disappear.’
    He added: ‘There is a little bit of Neanderthal left over in almost all humans.’ 
    Many scientists believe that modern humans evolved in Africa between 200,000 and 100,000 years ago. Our ancestors left Africa around 60,000 years ago and migrated around the world – replacing other branches of the family tree which had left Africa earlier – including the Neanderthals.
    By 25,000 years ago the Neanderthals had vanished from Europe.
    Some experts believe they interbred with modern humans, others that they were driven to extinction by changing climate or competition for food.
    The latest study looked at DNA from 1,983 people living in Africa, European, Asia and the Americas.
    Scientists, led by Dr Sarah Joyce at the University of Mexico, then created an “evolutionary tree” to explain how and when differences in the DNA between people from around the world appeared.
    She found that the best explanation was if there were two periods of interbreeding between modern humans and another human species – and that Neanderthals were the only likely candidate.
    One period of interbreeding occurred around 60,000 years ago in the eastern Mediterranean, the other around 45,000 years ago in eastern Asia.
    The two events happened after our ancestors migrated out of Africa to colonise the rest of the world. The researchers found evidence of interbreeding between Neanderthals and modern Africans – supporting the theory.
    The findings were presented at the American Association of Physical Anthropologists conference in New Mexico and have triggered huge excitement among experts in human evolution.
    Dr Noah Rosenberg, an anthropological geneticist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, told the journal Nature: ‘They are onto something.’
    The findings support scientists who believe there is evidence of interbreeding in fossils. 
    Neanderthals had thick set features and heavy foreheads. They were around six inches shorter on average than modern people, but their brains were 20 per cent bigger.
    In recent years, scientists have found evidence that they were more sophisticated than their popular image, and may have developed language.
    They used flint and stone tools, and were excellent hunters. They supplemented their diet of deer, bison, boar and bear with seal, fish, shellfish, nuts, grains and plants.
    It may not take long for the new theory to be proved.
    Other researchers from the Max Planck Institute, led by Svante Pääbo, completed the first draft of the complete  Neanderthal DNA last year. 
    The results are expected to be published soon and may shed more light on breeding between the two species.

    Read more:

     http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1268003/Neanderthals-humans-interbred-twice-scientists.html#ixzz0m7JlRDMW

  • The Beholden State

    A new form of tyranny.
    The history of power has been tyranny.  This story informs us how deep and the roots are now placed in California.  A union stranglehold preserves entitlement for a select class of union members with unconstrained greed and abuse.
    This exact mentality has snuffed out industries year after year.  It has recently snuffed out a large part of the US auto industry which is now passing through another cycle of downsizing.
    In the meantime down the road, Toyota grabs business because they do not have legacy costs.
    The industrial union movement has downsized hugely from its heyday just after the Second World War.  That happened because it consistently refused to compete directly except through protection.
    It is now making government itself economically non competitive and we have in California the worst example.  The tax base has shrunken and this means much less to go around. 
    Since the unions are clearly in charge, we can expect the widows and orphans to be jettisoned first.  Obviously something must break.
    I would start by outsourcing the entire prison system to Mexico.  Then take a long look at everything else.
    This article is reprinted from City Journal.
    The camera focuses on an official of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), California’s largest public-employee union, sitting in a legislative chamber and speaking into a microphone. “We helped to get you into office, and we got a good memory,” she says matter-of-factly to the elected officials outside the shot. “Come November, if you don’t back our program, we’ll get you out of office.’
    The video has become a sensation among California taxpayer groups for its vivid depiction of the audacious power that public-sector unions wield in their state. The unions’ political triumphs have molded a California in which government workers thrive at the expense of a struggling private sector. The state’s public school teachers are the highest-paid in the nation. Its prison guards can easily earn six-figure salaries. State workers routinely retire at 55 with pensions higher than their base pay for most of their working life. Meanwhile, what was once the most prosperous state now suffers from an unemployment rate far steeper than the nation’s and a flood of firms and jobs escaping high taxes and stifling regulations. This toxic combination—high public-sector employee costs and sagging economic fortunes—has produced recurring budget crises in Sacramento and in virtually every municipality in the state.
    How public employees became members of the elite class in a declining California offers a cautionary tale to the rest of the country, where the same process is happening in slower motion. The story starts half a century ago, when California public workers won bargaining rights and quickly learned how to elect their own bosses—that is, sympathetic politicians who would grant them outsize pay and benefits in exchange for their support. Over time, the unions have turned the state’s politics completely in their favor. The result: unaffordable benefits for civil servants; fiscal chaos in Sacramento and in cities and towns across the state; and angry taxpayers finally confronting the unionized masters of California’s unsustainable government.
    California’s government workers took longer than many of their counterparts to win the right to bargain collectively. New York City mayor Robert Wagner started a national movement back in the late 1950s when he granted negotiating rights to government unions, hoping to enlist them as allies against the city’s Tammany Hall machine. The movement intensified in the early sixties, after President John F. Kennedy conferred the right to bargain on federal workers. In California, a more politically conservative environment at the time, public employees remained without negotiating power through most of the sixties, though they could join labor associations. In 1968, however, the state legislature passed the Meyers-Milias-Brown Act, extending bargaining rights to local government workers. Teachers and other state employees won the same rights in the seventies.
    These legislative victories happened at a time of surging prosperity. California’s aerospace industry, fueled by the Cold War, was booming; investments in water supply and infrastructure nourished the state’s agribusiness; cheaper air travel and a famously temperate climate burnished tourism. The twin lures of an expanding job market and rising incomes pushed the state’s population higher, from about 16 million in 1960 to 23 million in 1980 and nearly 30 million by 1990. This expanding population in turn led to rapid growth in government jobs—from a mere 874,000 in 1960 to 1.76 million by 1980 and nearly 2.1 million in 1990—and to exploding public-union membership. In the late 1970s, the California teachers’ union boasted about 170,000 members; that number jumped to about 225,000 in the early 1990s and stands at 340,000 today.
    The swelling government payroll made many California taxpayers uneasy, eventually encouraging the 1978 passage of Proposition 13 (see page 30), the famous initiative that capped property-tax hikes and sought to slow the growth of local governments, which feed on property taxes. Government workers rightly saw Prop. 13 as a threat. “We’re not going to just lie back and take it,” a California labor leader told the Washington Post after the vote, adding that Prop. 13 had made the union “more militant.” The next several years proved him right. In 1980 alone, unionized employees of California local governments went on strike 40 times, even though doing so was illegal. And once the Supreme Court of California sanctioned state and local workers’ right to strike in 1985—something that their counterparts in most other states still lack—the unions quickly mastered confrontational techniques like the “rolling strike,” in which groups of workers walk off jobs at unannounced times, and the “blue flu,” in which public-safety workers call in sick en masse.
    But in post–Proposition 13 California, strikes were far from the unions’ most fearsome weapons. Aware that Proposition 13 had shifted political action to the state capital, three major blocs—teachers’ unions, public-safety unions, and the Service Employees International Union, which now represents 350,000 assorted government workers—began amassing colossal power in Sacramento. Over the last 30 years, they have become elite political givers and the state’s most powerful lobbying factions, replacing traditional interest groups and changing the balance of power. Today, they vie for the title of mightiest political force in California.
    Consider the California Teachers Association. Much of the CTA’s clout derives from the fact that, like all government unions, it can help elect the very politicians who negotiate and approve its members’ salaries and benefits. Soon after Proposition 13 became law, the union launched a coordinated statewide effort to support friendly candidates in school-board races, in which turnout is frequently low and special interests can have a disproportionate influence. In often bitter campaigns, union-backed candidates began sweeping out independent board members. By 1987, even conservative-leaning Orange County saw 83 percent of board seats up for grabs going to union-backed candidates. The resulting change in school-board composition made the boards close allies of the CTA.
    But with union dues somewhere north of $1,000 per member and 340,000 members, the CTA can afford to be a player not just in local elections but in Sacramento, too (and in Washington, for that matter, where it’s the National Education Association’s most powerful affiliate). The CTA entered the big time in 1988, when it almost single-handedly led a statewide push to pass Proposition 98, an initiative—opposed by taxpayer groups and Governor George Deukmejian—that required 40 percent of the state’s budget to fund local education. To drum up sympathy, the CTA ran controversial ads featuring students; in one, a first-grader stares somberly into the camera and says, “Pay attention—today’s lesson is about the school funding initiative.” Victory brought local schools some $450 million a year in new funding, much of it discretionary. Unsurprisingly, the union-backed school boards often used the extra cash to fatten teachers’ salaries—one reason that California’s teachers are the country’s highest-paid, even though the state’s total spending per student is only slightly higher than the national average. “The problem is that there is no organized constituency for parents and students in California,” says Lanny Ebenstein, a former member of the Santa Barbara Board of Education and an economics professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara. “No one says to a board of education, ‘We want more of that money to go for classrooms, for equipment.’ ”
    With its growing financial strength, the CTA gained the ability to shape public opinion. In 1996, for instance, the union—casting covetous eyes on surplus tax revenues from the state’s economic boom—spent $1 million on an ad campaign advocating smaller classes. Californians began seeing the state’s classrooms as overcrowded, according to polls. So Governor Pete Wilson earmarked some three-quarters of a billion dollars annually to cut class sizes in kindergarten through third grade. The move produced no discernible improvements in student performance, but it did require a hiring spree that inflated CTA rolls and produced a teacher shortage. (The union drew the line, however, when it faced the threat of increased accountability. Two years later, when Wilson offered funds to reduce class sizes even more but attached the money to new oversight mechanisms, the CTA spent $6 million to defeat the measure, living up to Wilson’s assessment of it as a “relentless political machine.”)
    During this contentious period, the CTA and its local affiliates learned to play hardball, frequently shutting down classes with strikes. The state estimated that in 1989 alone, these strikes cost California students collectively some 7.2 million classroom days. Los Angeles teachers provoked outrage that year by reportedly urging their students to support them by skipping school. After journalist Debra Saunders noted in LA’s Daily News that the striking teachers were already well paid, the union published her home phone number in its newsletter and urged members to call her.
    Four years later, the CTA reached new heights of thuggishness after a business-backed group began a petition to place a school-choice initiative on the state ballot. In a union-backed effort, teachers shadowed signature gatherers in shopping malls and aggressively dissuaded people from signing up. The tactic led to more than 40 confrontations and protests of harassment by signature gatherers. “They get in between the signer and the petition,” the head of the initiative said. “They scream at people. They threaten people.” CTA’s top official later justified the bullying: some ideas “are so evil that they should never even be presented to the voters,” he said.
    The rise of the white-collar CTA provides a good example of a fundamental political shift that took place everywhere in the labor movement. In the aftermath of World War II, at the height of its influence, organized labor was dominated by private workers; as a result, union members were often culturally conservative and economically pro-growth. But as government workers have come to dominate the movement, it has moved left. By the mid-nineties, the CTA was supporting causes well beyond its purview as a collective bargaining agent for teachers. In 1994, for instance, it opposed an initiative that prohibited illegal immigrants from using state government programs and another that banned the state from recognizing gay marriages performed elsewhere. Some union members began to complain that their dues were helping to advance a political agenda that they disagreed with. “They take our money and spend it as they see fit,” says Larry Sand, founder of the California Teachers Empowerment Network, an organization of teachers and former teachers opposed to the CTA’s noneducational politicking.
    Public-safety workers—from cops and sheriffs to prison guards and highway-patrol officers—are the second part of the public-union triumvirate ruling California. In a state that has embraced some of the toughest criminal laws in the country, police and prison guards’ unions own a precious currency: their political endorsements, which are highly sought after by candidates wanting to look tough on crime. But the qualification that the unions usually seek in candidates isn’t, in fact, toughness on crime; it’s willingness to back better pay and benefits for public-safety workers.
    The pattern was set in 1972, when State Assemblyman E. Richard Barnes—an archconservative former Navy chaplain who had fought pension and fringe-benefit enhancements sought by government workers, including police officers and firefighters—ran for reelection. Barnes had one of the toughest records on crime of any state legislator. Yet cops and firefighters walked his district, telling voters that he was soft on criminals. He narrowly lost. As the Orange County Register observed years later, the election sent a message to all legislators that resonates even today: “Your career is at risk if you dare fiddle with police and fire” pay and benefits.
    The state’s prison guards’ union has exploited a similar message. Back in 1980, when the California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA) won the right to represent prison guards in contract negotiations, it was a small fraternal organization of about 1,600 members. But as California’s inmate population surged and the state went on a prison-building spree—constructing 22 new institutions over 25 years—union membership expanded to 17,000 in 1988, 25,000 by 1997, and 31,000 today. Union resources rose correspondingly, with a budget soaring to $25 million or so, supporting a staff 70 deep, including 20 lawyers.
    Deploying those resources, the union started to go after politicians who didn’t support higher salaries and benefits for its members and an ever-expanding prison system. In 2004, for example, the CCPOA spent $200,000—a whopping amount for a state assembly race—to unseat Republican Phil Wyman of Tehachapi. His sin: advocating the privatization of some state prisons in order to save money. “The amount of money that unions are pouring into local races is staggering,” says Joe Armendariz, executive director of the Santa Barbara County Taxpayers Association. A recent mayoral and city council election in Santa Barbara, with a population of just 90,000, cost more than $1 million, he observes.
    The symbiotic relationship between the CCPOA and former governor Gray Davis provides a remarkable example of the union’s power. In 1998, when Davis first ran for governor, the union threw him its endorsement. Along with those much-needed law-and-order credentials, it also gave Davis $1.5 million in campaign contributions and another $1 million in independent ads supporting him. Four years later, as Davis geared up for reelection, he awarded the CCPOA a stunning 34 percent pay hike over five years, increasing the average base salary of a California prison guard from about $50,000 a year to $65,000—and this at a time when the unemployment rate in the state had been rising for nearly a year and a half and government revenues had been falling. The deal cost the state budget an additional $2 billion over the life of the contract. A union official described it admiringly as “the best labor contract in the history of California.” Eight weeks after the offer, the union donated $1 million to Davis’s reelection campaign.
    Even cops who run for office have felt the wrath of public-safety unions. Allan Mansoor served 16 years as a deputy sheriff in Orange County but angered police unions by publicly backing an initiative that would have required them to gain their members’ permission to spend dues on political activities. When the conservative Mansoor ran successfully for city council several years back in Costa Mesa, local cops and firefighters poured resources into helping his more liberal opponents. “I didn’t like seeing my dues go to candidates like Davis, so I supported efforts to curb that,” Mansoor says. “Union leaders didn’t like it, so they endorsed my opponents by claiming they were tougher on crime than I was.”
    Even more troubling are the activities of the California Organization of Police and Sheriffs (COPS), a lobbying and advocacy group that has raised tens of millions of dollars from controversial soliciting campaigns. In one, COPS fund-raisers reportedly called residents of heavily immigrant neighborhoods and threatened to cut off their 911 services unless they donated. In another, a COPS fund-raiser reportedly offered to shave points off Californians’ driving records in exchange for donations. The group has dunned politicians, too. In 1998, it began publishing a voter guide in which candidates paid to be included. Pols considered the money well spent because of the importance of a COPS endorsement—or at least the appearance of one. “We all use them [COPS] for cover, especially in years when law enforcement is a big issue in elections,” one state senator, Santa Clara’s John Vasconcellos, admitted to the Orange County Register. “It stopped the right wing from calling me soft on crime.”
    The results of union pressure are clear. In most states, cops and other safety officers can typically retire at 50 with a pension of about half their final working salary; in California, they often receive 90 percent of their pay if they retire at the same age. The state’s munificent disability system lets public-safety workers retire with rich pay for a range of ailments that have nothing to do with their jobs, costing taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars. California’s prison guards are the nation’s highest-paid, a big reason that spending on the state’s prison system has blasted from less than 4.3 percent of the budget in 1986 to more than 11 percent today.
    California’s third big public-union player is the state wing of the SEIU, the nation’s fastest-growing union, whose chief, Andy Stern, earned notoriety by visiting the White House 22 times during the first six months of the Obama administration. Founded in 1921 as a janitors’ union, the SEIU slowly transformed itself into a labor group representing government and health-care workers—especially health-care workers paid by government medical programs like Medicaid. In 1984, the California State Employees Association, which represented many state workers, decided to affiliate with the SEIU. Today, the SEIU represents 700,000 California workers—more than a third of its nationwide membership. Of those, 350,000 are government employees: noninstructional workers in schools across the state; all non-public-safety workers in California’s burgeoning prisons; 2,000 doctors, mostly residents and interns, at state-run hospitals; and many others at the local, county, and state levels.
    The SEIU’s rise in California illustrates again how modern labor’s biggest victories take place in back rooms, not on picket lines. In the late 1980s, the SEIU began eyeing a big jackpot: tens of thousands of home health-care workers being paid by California’s county-run Medicaid programs. The SEIU initiated a long legal effort to have those workers, who were independent contractors, declared government employees. When the courts finally agreed, the union went about organizing them—an easy task because governments rarely contest organizing campaigns, not wanting to seem anti-worker. The SEIU’s biggest victory was winning representation for 74,000 home health-care workers in Los Angeles County, the largest single organizing drive since the United Auto Workers unionized General Motors in 1937. Taxpayers paid a steep price: home health-care costs became the fastest-growing part of the Los Angeles County budget after the SEIU bargained for higher wages and benefits for these new recruits. The SEIU also organized home health-care workers in several other counties, reaching a whopping statewide total of 130,000 new members.
    The SEIU’s California numbers have given it extraordinary resources to pour into political campaigns. The union’s major locals contributed a hefty $20 million in 2005 to defeat a series of initiatives to cap government growth and rein in union power. The SEIU has also spent millions over the years on initiatives to increase taxes, sometimes failing but on other occasions succeeding, as with a 2004 measure to impose a millionaires’ tax to finance more mental-health spending. With an overflowing war chest and hundreds of thousands of foot soldiers, the SEIU has been instrumental in getting local governments to pass living-wage laws in several California cities, including Los Angeles and San Francisco. And the union has also used its muscle in campaigns largely out of the public eye, as in 2003, when it pressured the board of CalPERS, the giant California public-employee pension fund, to stop investing in companies that outsourced government jobs to private contractors.
    Armed with knowledge about California’s three public-union heavyweights, one can start to understand how the state found itself in its nightmarish fiscal situation. The beginning of the end was the 1998 gubernatorial election, in which the unions bet their future—and millions of dollars in members’ dues—on Gray Davis. The candidate traveled to the SEIU’s headquarters to remind it of his support during earlier battles against GOP governors (“Nobody in this race has done anywhere near as much as I have for SEIU”); the union responded by pumping $600,000 into his campaign. Declaring himself the “education candidate” who would expand funding of public education, Davis received $1.2 million from the CTA. Added to this was Davis’s success in winning away from Republicans key public-safety endorsements—and millions in contributions—from the likes of the CCPOA.
    Davis’s subsequent victory over Republican Dan Lungren afforded public-worker unions a unique opportunity to cash in the IOUs that they had accumulated, because Davis’s Democratic Party also controlled the state legislature. What followed was a series of breathtaking deals that left California state and municipal governments careening from one budget crisis to another for the next decade.
    Perhaps the most costly was far-reaching 1999 legislation that wildly increased pension benefits for state employees. It included an unprecedented retroactive cost-of-living adjustment for the already retired and a phaseout of a cheaper pension plan that Governor Wilson had instituted in 1991. The deal also granted public-safety workers the right to retire at 50 with 90 percent of their salaries. To justify the incredible enhancements, Davis and the legislature turned to CalPERS, whose board was stocked with members who were either union reps or appointed by state officials who themselves were elected with union help. The CalPERS board, which had lobbied for the pension bill, issued a preposterous opinion that the state could provide the new benefits mostly out of the pension systems’ existing surplus and future stock-market gains. Most California municipalities soon followed the state enhancements for their own pension deals.
    When the stock market slid in 2000, state and local governments got slammed with enormous bills for pension benefits. The state’s annual share, estimated by CalPERS back in 1999 to be only a few hundred million dollars, reached $3 billion by 2010. Counties and municipalities were no better off. Orange County’s retirement system saw its payouts to retirees jump to $410 million a year by 2009, from $140 million a decade ago. Many legislators who had voted for the pension legislation (including all but seven Republicans) later claimed that they’d had no idea that its fiscal impact would be so devastating. They had swallowed the rosy CalPERS projections even though they knew very well that the board was, as one county budget chief put it, “the fox in the henhouse.”
    The second budget-busting deal of the Davis era was the work of the teachers’ union. In 2000, the CTA began lobbying to have a chunk of the state’s budget surplus devoted to education. In a massive rally in Sacramento, thousands of teachers gathered on the steps of the capitol, some chanting for TV cameras, “We want money! We want money!” Behind the scenes, Davis kept up running negotiations with the union over just how big the pot should be. “While you were on your way to Sacramento, I was driving there the evening of May 7, and the governor and I talked three times on my cell phone,” CTA president Wayne Johnson later boasted to members. “The first call was just general conversation. The second call, he had an offer of $1.2 billion. . . . On the third call, he upped the ante to $1.5 billion.” Finally, in meetings, both sides agreed on $1.84 billion. As Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters later observed, that deal didn’t merely help blow the state’s surplus; it also locked in higher baseline spending for education. The result: “When revenues returned to normal, the state faced a deficit that eventually not only cost Davis his governorship in 2003 but has plagued his successor, Arnold Schwarzenegger.”
    Having wielded so much power effortlessly, the unions miscalculated the antitax, anti-Davis sentiment that erupted when, shortly after his autumn 2002 reelection, Davis announced that the state faced a massive deficit. The budget surprise spurred an enormous effort to recall Davis, which the unions worked to defeat, with the SEIU spending $2 million. At the same time, union leaders used their influence in the Democratic Party to try to save Davis, telling other Democrats that they would receive no union support if they abandoned the governor. “If you betray us, we won’t forget it,” the head of the 800,000-member Los Angeles County Federation of Labor proclaimed to Democrats. Only when it became apparent from polls that the recall would succeed did the unions shift their support to Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, who finished a distant second to Schwarzenegger. Taxpayer groups were euphoric.
    But as they and Schwarzenegger soon discovered, most of California’s government machinery remained union-controlled—especially the Democratic state legislature, which blocked long-term reform. Frustrated, Schwarzenegger backed a series of 2005 initiatives sponsored by taxpayer groups to curb the unions and restrain government growth, including one that made it harder for public-employee unions to use members’ dues for political purposes. The controversial proposals sparked the most expensive statewide election in American history. Advocacy groups and businesses spent a staggering $300 million (some of it, however, coming from drug companies trying to head off an unrelated initiative). The spending spree included $57 million from the CTA, which mortgaged its Sacramento headquarters for the cause. All of the initiatives went down to defeat.
    California taxpayers nevertheless received a brief respite, thanks to the mid-decade housing boom that drove the economy and tax collections higher and momentarily eased the state’s budget crisis. Predictably, state politicians forgot California’s Davis-era deficit woes and gobbled up the surpluses, increasing spending by 32 percent, or $34 billion, in four years. Then the housing market crashed in 2007, prompting a cascade of budget crises in Sacramento and around the state. Only too late have Californians recognized the true magnitude of their fiscal problems, including a $21 billion deficit by mid-2009 that forced the state to issue IOUs when it temporarily ran out of cash. In the municipal bond market, fears are rising that the Golden State could actually default on its debt.
    Municipalities around the state are also buckling under massive labor costs. One city, Vallejo, has already filed for bankruptcy to get out from under onerous employee salaries and pension obligations. (To stop other cities from going this route, unions are promoting a new law to make it harder for municipalities to declare bankruptcy.) Other local California governments, big and small, are nearing disaster. The city of Orange, with a budget of just $88 million in 2009, spent $13 million of it on pensions and expects that figure to rise to $23 million in just three years. Contra Costa’s pension costs rose from $70 million in 2000 to $200 million by the end of the decade, producing a budget crisis.
    Los Angeles, where payroll constitutes nearly half the city’s $7 billion budget, faces budget shortfalls of hundreds of millions of dollars next year, projected to grow to $1 billion annually in several years. In October 2007, even as it was clear that the area’s housing economy was crashing, city officials had handed out 23 percent raises over a five-year period to workers. (See the sidebars on pages 22 and 26.)
    In the past, California could always rely on a rebounding economy to save it from its budgetary excesses. But these days, few view the state as the land of opportunity. Throughout the national recession that began in December 2008 and carried through 2009, California’s unemployment rate consistently ran several points higher than the national rate. Major California companies like Google and Intel have chosen to expand elsewhere, not in their home state. Put off by the high taxes and cumbersome regulatory regime that the public-sector cartel has led the way in foisting on the state, executives now view California as a noxious business environment. In a 2008 survey by a consulting group, Development Counsellors International, business executives rated California the state where they were least likely to locate new operations.
    More and more California taxpayers are realizing how stacked the system is against them, and the first stirrings of revolt are breaking out. Voters defeated a series of ballot initiatives last May that would have allowed politicians to solve the state budget crisis temporarily through a series of questionable gimmicks, including one to let the state borrow against future lottery receipts and another to let it plug budget holes with money diverted from a mental-health services fund. In a clear message from voters, the only proposition to gain approval last May banned pay raises for legislators during periods of budget deficit.
    With anger rising, taxpayer advocates now plan to revive older initiatives to cut the power of public-sector unions. Mark Bucher, head of the Citizens Power Campaign, is pushing for an initiative that’s similar to propositions that failed in 1998 and in 2005—but their prospects may be brighter today, he argues, because the woes of municipalities like Vallejo have made citizens more aware of union power and more supportive of reform. “The mood has clearly shifted in California,” Bucher says. “You can see that in the rise of local Tea Party antitax groups around the state. People are fed up.”
    Another initiative that could mend California’s broken politics is a 2008 vote that took the power to delineate electoral districts away from the state legislature—which had used it to make it difficult to defeat incumbents—and gave it to a nonpartisan commission. If this commission succeeds in making legislative races more competitive and incumbents more responsive to voter sentiment, the legislature would almost certainly become less beholden to narrow union interests, and a whole series of reforms would be possible: a new, cheaper pension plan for state employees; fewer restrictions on charter schools, which often educate kids more effectively and less expensively than public schools do; and regulatory reforms that would reduce the estimated $493 billion cost that regulations impose on California businesses each year.
    It will take an enormous effort to roll back decades of political and economic gains by government unions. But the status quo is unsustainable. And at long last, Californians are beginning to understand the connection between that status quo and the corruption at the heart of their politics.
    Steven Malanga is the senior editor of City Journal and a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. He is the author of The New New Left. Research for his article was supported by the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation.
  • ClimateGate Lingers




    Yes, it will not go away even when folks try to put out bluff pieces to reassure the believers that all is well and that the enemy is abusing the science.  I am growing somewhat weary of this story. IPCC was from top to bottom a document of special pleading made obvious by the slug of tout pieces accepted as part of the report.
    This was apparent months and years before the release of the emails, at least to anyone experienced with this type of report.  That it is now getting picked over and that a lot of the content is terrible is no surprise.  Yet a lot of that same content is quite good if certainly selected to support one side only.
    What was bad was the willingness of media types to drum the material so shamelessly.  Somehow an unreviewed piece sponsored by Greenpeace cannot be turned into a creditable report by the mere action of been placed in the IPCC report.
    IPCC did not put out a fully peer reviewed package of papers.  I cannot believe they intended to.  What happened though is that an awful lot of rubbish was hung on the scholarly skeleton and sanctified and then drummed as if it equaled the reputation of the legitimate work.
    They actually got away with all that for quite some time.   Critics who could see the nonsense were actually attacked to keep other eyes away from the facts.  By the time it was approaching Copenhagen, we were hearing claims the science was settled and a Nobel Prize was handed out.  A promotional frenzy was underway.
    That is when someone decided the time was right to release the compromising emails.
    Climategate: a scandal that won’t go away
    From Macbeth to Watergate, it’s not the act that leads to nemesis, but the attempts to ‘trammel up the consequence’ , writes Christopher Booker.

    Published: 7:22PM BST 17 Apr 2010
    If you were faced with by far the biggest bill of your life, would you not want to be confident that there was a very good reason why you should pay it? That is why we need to know just how far we can trust the science behind the official view that the world is threatened with catastrophe by global warming – because the measures proposed by our politicians to avert this supposed disaster threaten to transform our way of life out of recognition and to land us with easily the biggest bill in history. (The Climate Change Act alone, says the Government, will cost us all £18 billion every year until 2050.)
    Yet in recent months, as we know, the official science on which all this rests has taken quite a hammering. Confronted with all those scandals surrounding the “Climategate” emails and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the political and academic establishments have responded with a series of inquiries and statements designed to show that the methods used to construct the official scientific case are wholly sound. But as was illustrated last week by two very different reports, these efforts to hold the line are themselves so demonstrably flawed that they are in danger of backfiring, leaving the science more questionable than ever.
    The first report centred directly on the IPCC itself. When several of the more alarmist claims in its most recent 2007 report were revealed to be wrong and without any scientific foundation, the official response, not least from the IPCC’s chairman, Dr Rajendra Pachauri, was to claim that everything in its report was “peer-reviewed”, having been confirmed by independent experts.
    But a new study put this claim to the test. A team of 40 researchers from 12 countries, led by a Canadian analyst Donna Laframboise, checked out every one of the 18,531 scientific sources cited in the mammoth 2007 report. Astonishingly, they found that nearly a third of them – 5,587 – were not peer-reviewed at all, but came from newspaper articles, student theses, even propaganda leaflets and press releases put out by green activists and lobby groups.
    In its own way even more damaging, however, was the report from a team led by Lord Oxburgh on the scientific integrity of the East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Two sets of evidence have been used more than anything else to drive the worldwide scare over global warming. One is a series of graphs showing how temperatures have suddenly shot up in recent decades to levels historically unprecedented. The other is the official record of global surface temperatures. For both of these, the CRU and the key group of top British and American scientists involved in those Climategate emails have been crucially responsible.
    Lord Oxburgh himself is linked to various commercial interests which make money from climate change, from wind farms to carbon trading. None of the panel he worked with on his report were climate “sceptics”; and one, Dr Kerry Emanuel, is an outspoken advocate of man-made global warming. Even so, it was surprising to see just how superficial their inquiry turned out to be, based on two brief visits to the CRU and on reading 11 scientific papers produced by the research unit in the past 24 years, chosen in consultation with the Royal Society (which is itself fanatical in promotion of warming orthodoxy).
    The crown jewels of the IPCC’s case that the world faces catastrophic warming have been all those graphs based on tree rings which purport to show that temperatures have lately been soaring to levels never known before in history – thus eradicating all the evidence that the world was hotter than today during the Medieval Warm Period, long before any rise in CO2 levels. Best known of these graphs, of course, was Michael Mann’s “hockey stick”, comprehensively discredited by the expert Canadian statistician Stephen McIntyre and Professor Ross McKitrick. But the IPCC was able to defend its case with the aid of another set of “hockey sticks”, based on different tree rings, produced by Mann’s close allies at the CRU.
    The most widely quoted of the Climategate emails was that from the CRU’s director, Philip Jones, saying that he had used “Mike’s Nature trick” to “hide the decline”. If there was anything in the CRU’s record which a proper inquiry should have addressed it was the story behind this email, because what it highlighted was the device used by the CRU to get round the fact that its tree-ring data hopelessly failed to show the result the warmist establishment wanted. When their Siberian tree rings showed temperatures in the late 20th century sharply dropping rather than rising, the “trick” used by Prof Jones and his colleague Dr Keith Briffa, copied from Mike Mann’s own “hockey stick”, was simply to delete the downward curve shown by the tree rings, replacing them with late 20th-century temperature data to show the dramatic warming they wanted.
    The significance of this sleight of hand can scarcely be exaggerated. Why, in using this misleading graph, did the IPCC not explain the trick that had been played by its leading scientists? If tree rings were so inadequate in reflecting 20th-century temperatures, why should they be relied on to reflect temperatures in earlier centuries? Why, when fresh Siberian tree ring data came to light, making a nonsense of the CRU’s earlier temperature reconstructions, did the CRU simply ignore the new data?
    Anyone who has followed the meticulous analysis of this curious story by Steve McIntyre on his Climate Audit website might well conclude that we are looking here at a complete travesty of proper scientific procedure, matched only by the bizarre methods used by Mann himself to construct his original hockey stick. Yet these are the men, Mann, Jones and Briffa, who acted as the “lead authors” of the key chapters of the IPCC’s 2001 and 2007 reports.
    They quite shamelessly promoted the rewriting of history produced by themselves and a small group of colleagues – the so-called Hockey Team – which the IPCC in turn used as its main evidence to convince the politicians that the world faces unprecedented warming.
    Yet scarcely a hint of this hugely important story is contained in the Oxburgh report, which simply glosses it over, hoping to appease critics by throwing in a few vaguely critical comments about how Jones and his team were a trifle “disorganised” in archiving their data. It ignores the utterly damning critiques of the CRU’s methodology produced by McIntyre and McKitrick. It does not even begin to question the way the CRU has compiled its global temperature record, relied on by the IPCC as the most authoritative of all the official data sources for surface temperatures.
    Yet this in turn has given rise to all sorts of controversies, not least when Prof Jones last year admitted that much of his data had been “lost” (following his repeated refusals of applications to see it by McIntyre and others). More damaging still was the charge by senior Russian scientists that, in compiling its global record, CRU had cherry-picked the data supplied from Russia, suppressing that from most of the country while retaining the data from the vicinity of cities which, thanks to the “urban heat island” effect, showed a warming trend. So even the accuracy of CRU’s temperature record has been called seriously in doubt, although one would never have guessed it from Oxburgh.
    As is reflected in so many political tragedies, from Macbeth to Watergate, it is often not the original dark act itself which leads to nemesis but the later attempts to “trammel up the consequence”. Nothing will do more to reinforce suspicion of the CRU’s conduct than the failure, first by those MPs, and now by the team led by Lord Oxburgh, to address properly the way in which it appears to have abused the principles of true science – a scandal which should be of concern not just to us here in Britain, who paid for it, but across the world.
  • Future Nuclear Energy Capacity

    This is a long essay on the prospective development potential of fission systems in particular.  The key point that he makes is that the technologies taken as a whole will consume the available power in Uranium in various stages and that most of it is actually coming on stream.



    A big part of the reason is national competition from Europe, China and India.  Had it been left up to us it would never have got done. Yet now we can look forward to buying a breeder reactor off the shelf and use it to help consume some of our waste. 
    The solutions are all there in spite of our own curious decision making.
    An interesting point here is that uranium taken from the sea needs only be twice present price levels to be economic.  This is actually important.
    A coming mega industry will be desalination to produce fresh water.  We have already discussed one two stage protocol that switches out solid brine.  Recovering uranium from that may be surprisingly easy with the use of carbon.  It needs to be thought about because uranium byproduct would defray a major part of overhead.
    Since the economics will be driven by water, the uranium stock can become very large.
    APRIL 24, 2010
    Weird Science posted a response in our back in forth on future energy. Bruce at Weird Science has some fundamental inconsistencies in how he views the future which are problematic.

    Contradictions and Inconsistencies and Unjustified Criteria


    Weird Science talks about accepting fossil fuels for 70 years and wanting a future energy source to last for 700 years. These are just numbers that are pulled out of the air or are guesses based on simplified assumptions. Plus the timeframes are so long and sweeping that any analysis requires a laundry list of assumptions and predictions about that the many different 70-700 year scenarios are. I occasionally write about the far future but the farther out you go then the upside scenario becomes trying to get the right century or millenia when humanity might move into a new kardashev classification. The variance can become billions of times different depending upon how things play out. The downside scenario becomes we are all dead. 

    Fossil fuels could last 200 years or an aggressive program and good technology could cause a major shift from fossil fuels within 50 years.

    Displacing coal and a lot of Oil over 50 years


    Deeper burn could allow uranium to be used 50 times more efficiently (use all uranium isotopes and use most of the 65% of heat that is not utilized). Instead of using 68,000 tons of uranium to provide 17% of world electricity or 7% of total power needs (including transportation and industrial uses.) you could use the same annual amount of mined uranium to provide triple the world’s electricity and double the industrial heat. This would mean getting up to around 60% conversion of heat to electricity and utilizing the rest of the heat for industrial. Electrification of transportation would allow a lot of the oil to not be used.

    Factory built deep burn nuclear fission could be a part of displacing coal. Hyperion Power Generation making thousands of uranium nitride and then uranium hydride reactors could have a major impact from 2013-2030+. China pebble bed reactors starting with HTR-PM will be continuously improving major system. Liquid flouride thorium and accelerator based nuclear reactors could be developed 2025-2035. 

    Basically consistency for a 70 year forward scenario would say that the future energy source has 20-50 years or so to perfect itself and then 20-30 years to be deployed and be ready for the handoff. China is planning to have nuclear breeders fully ready and deployed in 2050. My scenario about factory built deep burn reactors has several active projects actually succeeding. However, the Weird Science analysis assumes that nuclear fission technology and their economics stays static for 70-700 years. 


    I do not concede another 70 years to Fossil Fuels

    70 years of using coal and oil the way we do now would mean over 200 million premature deaths from air pollution. 

    I do not concede that Uranium from Seawater will Remain Uneconomical


    Here is some cost analysis of uranium from seawater 

    There are several ways to scale up the lab work to commercial scale for uranium from seawater

    Weird Science quoted one proposal that said “only” 6 tons of uranium per year could come from a continuous uranium from seawater process, but that was only one proposed setup. This is like you can saying you can only get 6 tons of fish from one fishing line from one boat. You can have tens of thousands and even millions of boats and lines or alter a process to have big boats and drift nets. How many assembly lines are there for cars and computers ? Not just one. 1 million uranium lines would mean 6 million tons per year. It is the whole civilization we are talking about. So I do not support the claim that seawater process is uneconomical or unable to produce the volumes needed. The processes will of course be improved to reduce the costs. Plus even at $200/kg the fuel costs of a nuclear reactor are small. Especially a breeder reactor that has deep burn. Full burn uses 50 times less fuel to generate the same power. Fuel costs can then go up 50 times and still be the same fraction of electricity cost.

    There has been no analysis of what Japan is planning to do. The large scale growth of bioengineer seaweed for both biofuel and uranium from seawater extraction. This is one of the proposals that is the closest to moving forward. 

    The effect of Removing Uranium from Seawater


    River runoff adds 6,500 tons per year of uranium into the oceans. Integral fast breeder reactors or other deep burn reactors could provide double the current world electricity usage from that uranium. There is about 3.5 billion tons of uranium in seawater. Humanity could remove 1.7 billion tons to get the concentration down to half. Plus the number of years this took would add back in 6500 tons of uranium each year from runoff. 1.7 billion tons of uranium would last far longer than 700 years in almost any scenario. 

    Thorium Starts boosting Fission fuel Supplies starting in 2020


    There is also the thorium in the earths crust. Three times as much as the uranium. How thorium becomes uranium in a reactor is explained here. 

    India is working to use thorium in reactors. A couple of startups are working to produce thorium fuel rods for existing reactors. They target 2020-2025. They are funded and doing experiments in actual reactors. 

    Accelerator driven reactors also have complete burn. It is getting cheaper and cheaper to make neutrons. With neutrons you can convert uranium 238 to plutonium 239 and again achieve complete burn.

    Uranium from Phosphate has been done for decades. A few thousand tons of uranium per year. There is over 6 million tons of uranium in phosphate in known reserves.

    Far Future Speculation

    What is my speculation on what will happen to humanity and its energy needs for 70-700 years in the future ? 

    This is becomes totally disconnected from current technology. 

    We will probably have : dyson shells, molecular nanotechnology, Extreme AGI, control of casimr forces, mach effect


    I forecast a technological singularity by 2060 at the latest and radical changes before then. So discussing energy in the 70-700 year timeframe is like a debate about modern energy by cavemen. 

    Energy because it can take currently take 40 years to make a major shift in the energy generation mix lets you try to plan out for 100 years but you have to expect to be wrong. You just have to be less wrong then someone else’s assumptions and plans and provide a better path forward. Even energy planning beyond 100 years is just nuts. Even population projections beyond 50 years are whack. The rate of making babies shifted a lot from 1960 to today.

    Power sources for a Yottawatt civilization (less than Kardashev level two. About K1.75) will be a mix of space based solar, various kinds of nuclear fusion and deep burn nuclear fission.

    I believe we will have full blown diamondoid nanofactory molecular manufacturing in 30 years max.

    Bruce have not acknowledged my points about breeders etc… You said no tech and I pointed out that breeders exist and operate fine and there will about dozen or a lot more (with hyperion power generation and the Russian 100 Mw version) very soon. 

  • German mag reveals Test Drive Unlimited 2 features, scans

    German magazine GameStar’s June issue reveals some more relevant information about the up and coming Test Drive Unlimited 2. With scans too.
     
     
     

  • Greece Must Produce Detailed Budget Cuts This Week, Or Else The Aid Plan Is Kaput

    angela merkel germany medvedev russia

    Greece’s “bailout” depends on it being able to deliver real budget cuts. And fast.

    FT reports:

    Greece has been told to produce detailed plans this week to meet its budget deficit reduction targets in 2011 and 2012, as well as this year, before it can qualify for a combined rescue package from the International Monetary Fund and fellow eurozone members.

    As pressure increased in Athens to step up the pace of negotiations, Germany made it clear that a three-year programme must be agreed with the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, before the combined €45bn ($60bn) loans can be approved to meet the Greek government debt repayment schedule for the current year.

    On paper Greece can probably do this. Whether its citizens will accept the sharp deflation-inducing budget cuts without taking to the streets is another question.

    The question is: how long before the Greeks begin to wonder what the benefits of being part of the vaunted European community really are, especially given the obvious hostility from the continent’s economic and political balast, Germay.

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Weld Automation Reduces Welding Hours at Scottish Shipyard

    In this new era of shipbuilding it is refreshing to see that new methods and technology are being used and embraced, particularly by the young. These up and coming tradesmen who are picking up new skills with ease are producing excellent results. This has been in part due to continuous “in house” training programs coupled with new technologies. A great example of how new methods are being used are at the “Govan” and “Scotstoun” Shipyard where their workforce has just recently been receiving on-site training put together and run by trained professionals within the Shipyards workforce.

    The yard which was formally owned by Kvaerner was acquired by BAE Systems in 1999 and has gone from strength to strength. Through the use of welding automation from Gullco International (UK) Limited a long lasting strong business relationship with the Govan shipyard has formed. Gullco have supplied a good deal of equipment for past projects over the years such as bevelling equipment, which has been used in the preparation of the Super Duplex steel used in their Type 45 Destroyer ships as well as welding carriage automation (KAT Oscillator) which was used to greatly reduce the time and cost of the welding procedure..

    The use of welding automation to improve the overall process and increase arc on time is something Govan and Scotstoun have used to stay competative. They have recently used KAT welding automation and cutting automation on 19 “block hull link ups” on the Type 45 Destroyers with great results. The older equipment has recently been added to with, new, up to date Gullco KAT Oscillation equipment and gas cutting automation in anticipation of the Aircraft Carrier Project of which a large protion will be completed by BAE Systems Surface Ships Limited, Govan.

  • Plate Beveller and Weld Seam Tracker Improves Efficiency at Caterpillar

    The Caterpillar Stockton (UK) Ltd. plant selected Gullco International [UK] Limited to supply welding automation equipment to improve quality and efficiency in a variety of M.I.G/M.A.G. welding applications. One of the applications involved Side Panel welding utilizing a twin torch system. The scope of supply was for 4 complete, custom designed welding machines to be used for different jobs at the Caterpillar Stockton works facility. The unit was built of a large Gullco travel carriage complete with wire feed units, fume extraction equipment, control equipment and two Gullco Kat welding carriages with seam tracker combinations. These large 6 to 12 meter long “turnkey” units were assembled totally “in-house” at Gullco’s Appley Bridge, UK facility from 60% standard Gullco products. This enabled Gullco to meet critical delivery deadlines established to ensure Caterpillar production schedules were maintained. The machines are controlled by Mitsubishi PLC’s programmed by Gullco [UK]. Dual torches are used in these machines to substantially increase productivity and improve efficiency by welding two sides of a component simultaneously. Weld accuracy and quality are dependent on precise seam tracking and a reliable electrical interface of all the components via the PLC. In order to meet the production and quality requirements at Caterpillar, the Gullco Kat-Tracker WSG-1200 was selected. These tactile seam trackers continually sense the slightest variation across the weld seam and automatically correct the position of the weld torch. They provide precise control over the welding parameters and can automatically detect tacks and the end-of-plate. In total, eight Gullco Kat-Trackers were used in the 4 machines.

    As part of this project, Caterpillar purchased a Gullco KBM-28-U high speed portable, self propelled plate beveling machine. It is used to produce a clean machined bevel with no thermal distortion on thick section plates at 2m/min. This rugged beveller with adjustable beveling head can produce bevel angles 22 1/2° through 55°. The rotary shear principle incorporated by this machine results in low noise and vibration at the same time as high speed operation. This KBM-28-U unit bevels the underside of the plate. This beveling machine in partnership with the Kat Tracker system helped Caterpillar to achieve their goals of improved quality and efficiency.