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Nomura’s Richard Koo is clearly one of the most important voices on this next stage of the economic cycle, as deeply indebted governments try to figure out what comes next.

To those that think austerity is the answer, he has an ominous warning: If your private sector is still deleveraging, your economy will crash and your deficit will grow. That latter is the key one, as it’s the experience in Japan (and Ireland, and probably Greece, Spain, Portugal, and the UK next).

The below interview with Bloomberg TV is great, and for more Koo see this presentation from April.

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A long-awaited report from the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence into the failed bombing attempt aboard Northwest Flight 253 by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab essentially finds that the nation’s premier center for terrorism intelligence didn’t do its job ahead of the Christmastime danger.

“Prior to 12/25,” reads the report, spearheaded by committee leaders Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Kit Bond (R-Mo.) and declassified for release this afternoon, the National Counterterrorism Center, a 600-employee center inspired by the 9/11 Commission to tie together all streams of terrorism intelligence to prevent another surprise attack, “was not adequately organized and did not have the resources appropriately allocated to fulfill its missions.” That echoes a critique that NCTC veterans and whistleblowers made to The Washington Independent in January.

The committee’s report casts blame around the intelligence community for its inability to prevent Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a young Nigerian citizen educated in the U.K. and trained by al-Qaeda’s Yemen-based affiliate for the attack, from boarding Flight 253. But it finds the key bottlenecks occurred at NCTC. As we’ve reported for months, analysts within an NCTC-led process did not find that the threat information on Abdulmutallab did not meet the standard of specificity for moving him onto the FBI’s terrorist watchlist or the no-fly list. (The standard is “Specific derogatory information leading to reasonable suspicion.”)

But NCTC’s analysts, despite possessing a statutory mandate to “serve as the central and shared knowledge bank on known and suspected” terrorists, did not even “conduct additional research” to meet the “specific derogatory information” standard necessary to keep Abdulmutallab out of the U.S. — even after possessing enough information to place him on the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment database. And while the committee’s report doesn’t get specific in its unclassified summary, it hints repeatedly that there existed throughout the intelligence community enough piecemeal intelligence to meet the standard. “Analysts responsible for making the watchlisting determination did not believe they had the ability to give additional weight to significant pieces of information from the field, such as the report that resulted from the meeting with Abdulmutallab’s father,” the report states.

Its recommendations call into question the basic analytic and organizational competence of NCTC — something that its own analysts have done in interviews with TWI last January. The committee finds that for all of NCTC’s supposed analytic focus on al-Qaeda and the Middle East — though fewer than ten analysts work full-time on the Middle East and fewer than half of its 300 analysts work full-time on al-Qaeda — NCTC missed signals that al-Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate sought to attack the U.S. domestically. NCTC’s director “should ensure that all NCTC analysts understand their responsibility to connect related all-source information and disseminate all possible threat reporting, particularly reports that might help identify homeland threats,” the committee’s report states. And the director — for the time being, Michael Leiter — should “ensure that NCTC is organized and resourced to fulfill its responsibility to track, analyze, and report on all terrorist threats to the United States emanating from terrorist groups overseas.” You could be forgiven, after reading that, for wondering what NCTC has been doing for the first five years of its existence.

I’m awaiting comment from spokesmen for Leiter and for Dennis Blair, the Director of National Intelligence, whom the committee recommends should conduct his own review of the systemic failures here, “mindful of the intent of Congress to give NCTC the primary role and responsibility” for assembling all-source terrorism intelligence.

Article Tags: Pat Michaels

EPA scientists say manmade carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are contributing to a warming of the global climate — and as such represent a threat to human welfare. But a leading climatologist says his research indicates that CO2 poses no threat to human welfare at all, and he says the EPA should revisit its findings.

CHICAGO — Carbon dioxide is hazardous to your health, the Environmental Protection Agency says. Oh really?

EPA scientists say manmade carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are contributing to a warming of the global climate — and as such represent a threat to human welfare. Officials went so far as to declare the gas a danger to mankind in early December. But a leading climatologist says his research indicates that CO2 poses no threat to human welfare at all, and he says the EPA should revisit its findings.

“There is an overestimation of the environment’s sensitivity to CO2,” said Dr. Patrick Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studies at the CATO Institute and a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists.

Source: foxnews.com

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Back in February Garmin-Asus announced the Nuvifone M10, a Windows Mobile 6.5.3 smartphone slated to hit stores in Europe and Asia sometime in 1H 2010.  The companies have marketed the device toward those looking to achieve the perfect work-life balance all while navigating those unexpected turns that seem to come out of nowhere.  Today, Euro-Asians should be happy to know that the Nuvifone M10 has passed the FCC’s testing requirements and is that much closer to being available in retail stores.

A general practice among companies, when submitting devices to the FCC, is requesting certain items to remain confidential until the product gets closer to launch, or actually launches.  This usually includes pictures, manuals, and test setup photos among other things.  However, in the case of the Nuvifone M10, all these items have been made available to the public and you can access them by following the source link.

Here is a list of some specs that may interest you:

• 3.5-inch 800×480 WVGA touchscreen
• micro-USB power/adapter jack
• 3.5mm headphone jack
• 1500mAh battery
• GPS (duh)
• Bluetooth 2.0
• 5MP Camera (or is it 3.2?)
• 2.5GB internal memory
• microSD up to 16GB

The Nuvifone is a GSM device with HSDPA 7.2Mbps, UMTS 900/2100, EDGE/GPRS/GSM 850/900/1800/1900, which means calls can be made on either T-Mobile or AT&T’s network, but data will be unavailable in the US.  Any European or Asian readers looking forward to this device?  Let us know in the comments!

Via FCC

 

Article Tags: Richard Lindzen

M.I.T. professor says ‘skepticism’ implies anthropogenic global warming theory a ‘plausible proposition.’

If you listened to Barack Obama back during the 2008 presidential campaign, you may recall him explaining that words matter. According to leading climate scientist and M.I.T. professor Richard Lindzen, there is a good bit of wisdom in that, as it pertains to the debate about global warming.

Lindzen, speaking at the Heartland Institute’s International Conference on Climate Change on May 17 in Chicago, explained that by assuming the “skeptic” label, the anti-global warming alarmist movement implies the theory is plausible. And according to the M.I.T. professor, it isn’t.

“One suggestion I’d make is we stop accepting the term ‘skeptic,’” Lindzen said. “As far as I can tell, skepticism involves doubts about a plausible proposition. I think current global warming alarm does not represent a plausible proposition.”

Lindzen told the audience the alarmists have simply failed to prove their case.

“For 20 years –more than 20 years unfortunately, 22 by now, since ’88 – of repetition, escalation of claims does not make it more plausible. “Quite the contrary,” he continued. “I would suggest the failure to prove the case of 20 years makes the case even less plausible, as does the evidence of ClimateGate and other instances.”

Source: businessandmedia.org

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That new A-Team movie looks kind of horrible, right? But hey, that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy some fancy online promotional games! Because driving the A-Team van around Google Earth actually looks pretty sweet. More »

Yesterday I attended the always worthwhile SF Music Tech Summit. This has to be the fourth or fifth time I’ve gone, and I always find that after it’s all over and I’ve had some time to think about it, I recognize one key theme that kept hitting me over and over again throughout the event. This time it was the increasing irrelevance of the major record labels. I’ve been to a lot of music industry events in the past few years, and there’s no doubt that the presence of the majors at various events continues to decline (though, they still seem to have no problem wasting ridiculous sums of money on lavish parties at some events). While the decreased presence at Music Tech might have been a result of the overlap with another industry event, NARM, which the labels almost certainly deem more important, what was more telling was the audience’s reaction to the major labels.

The “big draw” at SF Music Tech was certainly the panel in the morning that had Ben Folds (who you hopefully know), Michael Tilson Thomas (again, who you hopefully know, but if not, from the San Francisco Symphony), Jack Conte (from the viral sensation Pomplamoose) and Glenn Otis Brown (from YouTube and Creative Commons). That panel was certainly entertaining, but tragically there wasn’t very much time for any of the participants to speak, and with each one showing a video (often kinda long), the whole thing felt kind of rushed. But what struck me wasn’t so much what anyone on that panel said… but what happened as soon as the panel ended. The very next “panel” was a discussion between a guy at Warner Music Group and someone at Cisco about the “direct to fan” artist websites that Warner Music has set up using Cisco’s Eos platform.

Not so long ago, you would think that a new technological offering via a major label would be something of interest to this crowd. But, the audience had no interest at all. While the organizers tried to keep people around, lots of people flooded the previous panel’s speakers while many more quickly evacuated the room. Probably one-third of the people were still there by the time the next panel actually began. That says something. In the past, the only way to be successful in the music business was to go through the major label gatekeepers. These days, almost no one believes that any more. In fact, many have realized that the path to success often means getting as far away from the majors as possible. Even if what Warner was doing was interesting (and, honestly, what was presented was full of buzzwords and hype, but little that seemed particularly innovative) just the fact that no one even seems to care says a lot about what people think of the major labels these days.

The final panel of the day, on “Music & Money,” included both Michael Robertson and Tim Quirk — both of whom have long been critics of the record labels and their business practices. It gave them a chance to (accurately) gripe about the record labels and how they’ve spent the last decade (or longer) shooting themselves in the foot time and time again by basically killing off every innovative new startup that popped up by demanding ridiculous fees just to operate. Honestly, that panel could have been a bit more interesting if it had included a representative from a major label to absorb some of the punches (and even to punch back), but one audience question summed up the whole thing:

“If the major labels are such a pain to work with, why work with them at all?”

The guy pointed out that there are tons of independent bands more than happy to embrace innovative new services. The real answer, of course, is that it’s not that simple. While there are tons of bands that are innovative and willing to work with new services, the music business is still (even if it’s changing a bit) a hit driven business. A music service without the hits doesn’t do well. That’s just the facts, right now. If you’re offering a streaming music service or a music locker and major label content is blocked, you’ve cut your potential audience down by a ton.

But, still, the question — and the answer — is telling of the major label’s stature in the industry these days. Their position now is back catalog filler. That’s more or less how people view the major labels. There’s a lot less interest in working through the old gatekeeper system. The labels will last for a long time (though, perhaps in different forms and under new ownership…) due to their back catalog and the need for music services to have access to those songs. But I don’t think there’s anyone left out there who looks to the major labels to lead the music industry any more (except, perhaps, some out-of-touch politicians).

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Article Tags: Meetings

In the wake of the Climategate scandal, panelists and audience members at the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC4) indicated growing confidence that the tide is turning in favor of those who believe that manmade global warming is not a crisis.

More than 700 people — including a good many scientists, along with economists, policy analysts, and legislators — have gathered together since Sunday night, discussing the once-settled but increasingly controversial proposition of an anthroprogenic global warming (AGW) crisis. Any triumphalism was averted by a general agreement to explore real-world facts and test the assertions of alarmists. The presenters and audience members continually asked whether the data says what the modelers say it does.

The conference opened with a Sunday evening dinner at which Canadian statistical analyst Stephen McIntyre presented a meticulous history of the hugely influential “hockey stick” graph — which found an alarming rise of global temperatures since 1979 and led to the IPPC conclusion that AGW is causing a global crisis that requires drastic measures. McIntyre had begun publicly questioning the data several years ago, setting off an effort which ultimately led to the recent Climategate scandal, in which it was shown that the people behind the hockey stick graph knowingly altered the temperature record in a way that expanded a relatively common global temperature change into a shocking heat spike.

Source: pajamasmedia.com

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Kevin Costner says he has the solution that will save the Gulf of Mexico from BP’s ruinous oil catastrophe. He’s not kidding. Watch him talk about this machine that, according to him, extracts 97% of oil from the water. More »

Larry Summers, head of the National Economic Council, said today that the Obama administration expects to recover “most, if not all” of the $50 billion bailout it provided to General Motors. At the current pricing of GM bonds, taxpayers are expected to lose about $10 billion on their investment in GM.

Defending the $85 billion bailout of the auto industry, Summers said that the industry cut 400,000 jobs in 2008. He said that the Bush administration had estimated the losses to total 1.1 million if the government didn’t step in to help GM and Chrysler. Summers said that those number of job losses would have added a number of other problems.

“They meant state and local budgets pushed to insolvency. They meant rising crime. They meant people dying young(er) than they other(wise) would have,” Summers said.

The Obama administration said yesterday that the U.S. government would assume at least a $1.6 billion loss on its $4 billion loan to Chrysler in Jan. 2009.

Most recent public estimates indicate that the government will lose about $30 billion on its bailout of GM, Chrysler and GMAC (now known as Ally Financial).

– By: Stephen Calogera

Source: Detroit News
Photo Credit: Official White House Photo by Pete Souza

by Brad Johnson

Cross-posted from the Wonk Room.

Yesterday, Obama’s ocean chief said that the threat of the BP oil
disaster getting caught in the Loop Current “sounds scarier than it is.”
As she was making these statements, satellites imagery showed the
Maryland-sized slick being entrained in the Loop Current, which
loops through the Gulf of Mexico and out the Florida Strait, feeding the
powerful Gulf Stream current that sweeps along the Atlantic seaboard.

Speaking with Gwen Ifill on PBS Newshour, Dr. Jane Lubchenco,
administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), admitted that the growing slick is “likely” to be entrained by
the current, but only a “very small stream” that would be “very, very
diluted,” weathered into tarballs, and “not likely to have a very
significant impact.” When queried by Ifill how big the tarballs would
be, Lubchenco squeezed her fingers together in front of her face, and
declared, “Very
little tarballs!”:

LUBCHENCO: There’s a very small stream of oil
that is a very light sheen that is getting close to the Loop
Current. And it’s likely that, at some point, it will be entrained by
the Loop Current. But that current, if there is oil entrained in it, it
would be probably nine to 12 days before that would reach the Florida
Strait. And, during that time, it gets highly diluted, parts per
billion, and it weathers naturally. And, so, any oil that
would be reaching Florida Strait might be in the form of tarballs, for
example. And whether it ever comes ashore or not would be a function of
whether there were good onshore winds bringing it. So …

IFILL: You say tarballs, you mean [softball-sized] tarballs or
[human-sized] tarballs?

LUBCHENCO: Probably little, very little tarballs.

Watch it:

“By the time the oil is in the loop current,” Lubchenco concluded,
“it’s likely to be very, very diluted. And, so, it’s not likely to have a
very significant impact. It sounds scarier than it is.”

NOAA—the agency responsible for measuring and predicting the extent
of the oil disaster—completely
failed to predict the entrainment of a huge band of the slick into
the Loop Current on May 17. NOAA is not currently publishing any maps or
predictions of subsea extent of the dispersed oil plumes.

Meanwhile, yesterday tarballs the size of softballs were found washed
up on Key West. According to news reports, at least some of the tarballs
come from the Deepwater Horizon disaster, which means that the
leading edge of the oil disaster reached the Loop Current eight to ten
days ago.

Related Links:

U.S. bans more Gulf fishing as oil fears grow for Florida

A new oil rush endangers the Gulf of Mexico and the planet

10 ways MMS makes FEMA look good

Here’s something you see every other day — Kim Kardashian in a two-piece!

The sex symbol is sharing her tips for keeping fit in the June issue of Shape.

Inspired by unflattering paparazzi photos of her that emerged online last year, Kim dropped 10 pounds by increasing her workouts and changing her diet to omit sugar and coffee.

“I have cellulite, just like almost every other woman on the planet, and just because I feel secure with my body doesn’t’ mean I think cellulite is cute. It will always be an issue for me. So let’s just say it’s a work in progress,” Kim continued, explaining that she takes a “baby steps” approach to staying in shape.

“Yesterday I was traveling all day to get to this shoot and I only had time for sit-ups and crunches in my hotel room. But even if that’s all I do, I still get a sense of accomplishment, and that keeps me energized all day long.”

Filed under: Coupe, Sedan, Europe, Japan, Technology, BMW, Luxury

When we first saw the BMW ActiveHybrid 7 Concept and its conceptual 5 Series sibling, we immediately got the sneaking suspicion that the car wouldn’t be the last Bavarian with a battery pack. Now it looks like the 3 Series will be the next in the company’s stable to get the electric motor treatment. While speaking with shareholders, BMW head-honcho Norbert Reithofer let it slip that we’ll be seeing a hybrid version of the company’s bread and butter 3 Series fairly soon. When is that, exactly? It’s hard to judge from Reithofer’s statement, but given that the 5 Series hybrid is slated for sale next year, we would guess the tech-laded 3 will pop up in 2012.

BMW says that its biggest motivation for spreading hybrid tech amongst its models isn’t emissions standards. Instead, the German manufacturer said that demand in Japan spurred the move. According to Reithofer, most Japanese consumers won’t take the time to look at a brand unless there are multiple hybrid options on the showroom floor.

While the move is mostly sales based, it won’t hurt the company’s goal of cutting CO2 emissions by 25 percent between now and 2020.

[Source: Autocar]

Confirmed, Again: Next BMW 3 Series to gain hybrid version originally appeared on Autoblog on Tue, 18 May 2010 16:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Germany announced a ban on naked short selling today, that takes effect at 12 AM Berlin time. Chancellor Angela Merkel has come under criticism for the decision, which is now set to hamper those who seek to speculate on German and European markets.

There are 10 German financial firms named in the ban, and we have them right here, along with data from CMA Datavision on their current likelihood of default, when available. Also included is CDS data, showing the pressure these firms are already under from markets, and soon to be free from.

Aareal Bank AG

CEO: Wolf Schumacher

What Do They Do: Primarily a real estate bank, Aareal works in structuring real estate deals internationally, with a specific focus on the German market.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

5-year Mid CDS: NA

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Allianz SE

CEO: Michael Diekmann

What Do They Do: Primarily an insurance firm, Allianz is also one of the largest asset managers in the world.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 7.0%

5-year Mid CDS: 82.6 bps

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Commerzbank SG

CEO: Martin Blessing

What Do They Do: As the second biggest bank in Germany, Commerzbank works across a range of commerical and retail banking.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 10.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 128.7 bps

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Deutsche Bank AG

CEO: Josef Ackermann

What Do They Do: Deutsche Bank is an international full service investment bank which acts across of range on industries including retail banking and trading.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 12.2%

5-year Mid CDS: 148.4 bps

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Deutsche Börse AG

CEO: Reto Francioni

What Do They Do: The company that runs Germany’s exchanges, Deutsche Börse AG also conducts a range of market related functions for consumers.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

5-year Mid CDS: NA

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Deutsche Postbank AG

CEO: Stefan Jütte

What Do They Do: Major German retail bank.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

5-year Mid CDS: NA

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Generali Deutschland Holding AG

Head of the Board of Directors: Walter Thießen

What Do They Do: Holding company of a primary insurance group and the lead member of the broader Generali Group.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): NA

5-year Mid CDS: NA

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Hannover Rūckversicherung AG (Hannover Re)

CEO: Ulrich Wallin

What Do They Do: One of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, worth €9 billion.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 8.7%

5-year Mid CDS: 104.3 bps

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

MLP AG

CEO: Dr. Uwe Schroeder-Wildberg

What Do They Do: A brokerage business that deals with private clients, many of which are academics.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD):

5-year Mid CDS:

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Mūnchener Rūckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (Munich Re)

CEO: Nikolaus von Bomhard

What Do They Do: A giant of global reinsurance, Munich Re works worldwide and Warren Buffett is the company’s biggest investor.

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 6.0%

5-year Mid CDS: 70.3 bps

Source: FT Alphaville, CMA Datavision

Worried about German banks? Check out the top 25 financials ready to default.

See the 25 in danger here >

Join the conversation about this story »

A Canadian woman has sued Rogers Wireless over privacy concerns. Sounds normal so far, right? Let’s add a little color to the sentence, then gauge your reaction. A Canadian woman has sued Rogers Wireless for inadvertently disclosing an affair she was having, citing privacy concerns. Hmm, that’s a little less normal, now isn’t it?

But that’s the story!

A Canadian woman had a cellphone with Rogers. Then she got married, and her husband opened up a landline and Internet connection for the house. Rogers then combined the bills—the woman’s cellphone, the shared landline and Internet connection—into one invoice that was sent to the husband at their domicile.

Now, was Rogers “in the right” when it combined the cellphone bill, which was originally in the woman’s name, with the newly opened landline and Internet connection?

Moving on, the husband, flipping through one month’s invoice, noticed several, hour-long conversations that were with one particular phone number. He called the number, getting the person on the other end of the line to confirm that, indeed, there had been an affair.

The husband left, then the woman claims her life fell apart. Among other things, her work performance suffered, which caused her to lose her job. For that she wants $600,000 from Rogers, technically for “invasion of privacy and breach of contract.” The contract being her cellphone service that she never requested be billed to her husband.

Time to play armchair analyst. Did Rogers do anything wrong here, and if so, does it owe the woman any money, specifically $600,000? I can see the woman’s point in that her cellphone was her cellphone, and Rogers probably didn’t have to combine it with the family’s landline and Internet connection. Does that warrant a breach of contract? I’m not a Canadian contract lawyer, so beats me. At the same time, Rogers wasn’t responsible for the woman’s affair, and it certainly wasn’t responsible for the woman reacting in the manner she did, causing her life to fall apart.

Could the woman have been caught, gotten a divorce, then moved on with her life? You know, be an adult about the situation? I suppose, but then again I have no emotional attachment to the story.

Hotels listed below will have a special SLA rate, you will need to mention that you are an IEA member in town for the SLA when making your reservation.  Discounted ISU housing (dorm rooms) will also be available with the SLA registration.

Holiday Inn & Suites
3202 East Empire Street
Bloomington, IL 61704
309.662.4700
Rate: $95.00 Single or Double
Reservation Deadline: July 6, 2010

Best Western University Inn
#3 Traders Circle
Normal, IL 62761
309.454.4070
Rate: $65.00 Single or Double
Reservation Deadline: July 5, 2010

Hampton Inn & Suites
320 S. Towanda Avenue
Normal, IL 61761
309.452.8900
Rate: $99.00 for Double/Double
Reservation Deadline: July 12, 2010

Country Inn & Suites
2403 East Empire Street
Bloomington, IL 61704
309.662.3100
Rate: Rates vary from $70.00 for Standard 2 queens to $110.00 for Whirlpool Suites
Reservation Deadline: July 6 ,2010

While the Palm Pre most likely brought several new customers to Sprint during their exclusivity period of the device, it’s clear that neither the Pre nor the Pixi did wonders for Palm and Sprint.  Sprint’s CFO Robert Brust recently echoed that sentiment to investors when he said, “The Pre didn’t work out as well as we hoped.”  Brust went on to blame Palm and its supply issues for the lackluster performance and said that Sprint has learned a lot since the launch of the original Pre.  Hopefully Sprint is more prepared for the launch of the EVO 4G in a few weeks which, judging by Internet buzz, should do extremely well for the No. 3 wireless carrier.  When asked about his concerns about the iPhone, Brust simply said, “We’d love to have it.” 

What are your thoughts about the Palm Pre and Sprint? We’d love to hear them!

Via InformationWeek

It’s been 30 years since Mother Nature kicked off an experiment in creative destruction at Mount St. Helens, and today the volcano serves as a prime example of how life adapts to changing conditions.

The changes on the mountain are fascinating to biologists – and perhaps unexpectedly, creationists as well.

For example, consider the amphibians of the ponds: When the volcano blew on May 18, 1980, an avalanche of logs, rocks and other debris wiped out some lakes and reshaped others. Biologists thought amphibians such as salamanders, frogs and toads would be among the hardest-hit species.

“They’re thought to be very sensitive to environmental change,” Charlie Crisafulli, a U.S. Forest Service ecologist who has been studying St. Helens since shortly after the eruption, told a “Nova” documentary team.

…(read more)

Not just yet.

The day probably will come when functional MRI brain scans become viable evidence in American courts, but thanks to a ruling in a Brooklyn case this week, that day is yet to come.

DISCOVER covered the details of the case two weeks ago—a woman sued her former employer claiming she was treated poorly after complaining of sexual harassment, and wanted fMRI scans admitted as evidence to validate the credibility of a witness. But Judge Robert H. Miller has now denied the request under New York State’s Frye test, which says, among other things, that expert testimony is only admissible if it’s widely accepted in the scientific community. As we saw yesterday when we covered the optogenetics tests designed to verify fMRI results, there are still lingering doubts about the technique’s reliability.

Given that there were apparently no other rulings that dealt with the admissibility of fMRI (at least as far as the lawyers could find), Judge Miller declined to be the first to allow it.

He decided that under the Frye test, which is slightly different from the Daubert standard used in federal court, lie detection evidence contravenes a jury’s key right to decide the credibility of witnesses [Wired.com].

But a similar fMRI battle is under way in Tennessee. Cephos, the same company that provided the brain scans in the Brooklyn case, is involved here, and CEO Steven Laken testified about the validity of his technology on Friday.

Late last year, Cephos was retained by the defendant in the Tennessee case, Lorne Semrau, a psychologist who is fighting charges that he defrauded Medicare and other health insurers with wrongful claims. Semrau’s attorney hopes to introduce fMRI scans performed by Cephos as evidence that he is telling the truth when he says he had no intent to commit fraud [ScienceInsider].

Neurologist Martha Farah traveled to Memphis to watch the proceedings, which she said went back and forth.

After lunch, the court heard from Marcus Raichle, a neuroimaging expert at Washington University in St. Louis. Farah says Raichle raised questions about the strength of evidence that increased activity in the brain regions examined in the Cephos scans are specifically related to deception. The same regions become active during a variety of mental tasks, Raichle said. He also noted that Semrau was in his 60s when the scans were taken, considerably older than the 18- to 50-year-old subjects who participated in the published studies [ScienceInsider].

A decision in the Tennessee case is still forthcoming. It should arrive in a matter of weeks.

Related Content:
Discoblog: I’m Telling the Truth, Your Honor. Just Look at This Brain Scan!
Discoblog: Mind-Reading Machine Puts Woman in Jail For Murder
80beats: Shiny New Neuroscience Technique (Optogenetics) Verifies a Familiar Method (fMRI)

Image: flickr / Everyone’s Idle