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This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net April 12, 2010.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. is the largest retailer in North America. The company operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wal-Mart Stores, Sam’s Club, and International.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

WMT is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 6.3% discount to its calculated fair value of $58.75. WMT earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

WMT earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 2.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

WMT earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $823. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as WMT has. If WMT grows its dividend at 11.0% per year, it will take 7 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.98%

Other: WMT is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: WMT earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks WMT as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $63.32 before WMT’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 36 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.91%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 9.7%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 11.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. WMT has a risk rating of 1.00 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

WMT enjoys dominant positions in most markets where it competes. The company continues to gain market share aided by the economic downturn as consumers choose WMT over higher-cost competitors and take advantage of its convenience. Its unmatched scale leads to favorable terms on everything from the products it sells to store leases and distribution agreements. These advantages are demonstrated in the company’s strong free cash flow of $3.63/share for FY 2010, up over 23% from FY 2009 and 2.7 times FY 2008’s comparative number of $1.33. The company recently announced an 11% increase in its cash dividend. Though its yield of 2.2% is less than my desired minimum of 2.25%, WMT is the type of company I want to own. I plan to add to my position this month while it is trading below my buy price of $58.75. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in WMT (1.8% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.

Related Posts:

• 11 Dividend Stocks Providing Positive Feedback
• The 2010 Dividend Stock Ideas List
• Seven Stocks Expected to Grow Their Dividends in 2010
• The 2010 Dividend Aristocrats
• 3 Styles Of Sucessful Dividend Investing

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Earth Times

Egypt signed an agreement with Switzerland on Wednesday establishing tighter controls on the cross-border movement of cultural property and ancient artifacts.

The deal will require both countries to ensure that stolen items are not imported and that stricter measures are enacted by customs officers to control the movement of goods.

“Under the new rules, customs will check if [the item] has proper Egyptian papers, whether it was exported legally,” said Benno Widmer, a legal expert at the Swiss Federal Office of Culture in Bern.

Requiring an export certificate from the country of origin will make it harder to move stolen precious items across international borders. The measure follows a previous agreement reached several years ago between Bern and Cairo.

Egyptology News Blog, Andie Byrnes

Art Museum Journal (Stan Parchin)

The endless fascination with ancient Egyptian art and civilization during the revolutionary age of the “heretic” pharaoh Akhenaten (r. 1353-1335 B.C.) and Tutankhamun (r. 1332-1322 B.C.) continues to inspire the publication of quality color-illustrated studies. Suitable for scholars, students and enthusiasts, many are exhibition catalogues authored by respected museum curators, archaeologists and art historians. Most are available in bookstores and through Internet retailers.

Books are listed under the following headings:

• General
• Prelude to Amarna
• Akhenaten and Nefertiti
• Tutankhamun
• Photography of Tutankhamun’s tomb and its contents

Egyptology News Blog, Andie Byrnes

Nick Clegg is changing the equation of UK politics, and making the threat of a hung parliament even more real.

The Liberal Democrat leader, whose party hasn’t mattered in UK politics since the end of the First World War, stood out in this week’s first ever party leaders debate. The country woke up to his quality, or at least his underdog charms. Clegg’s Liberal Democrats now lead the polls.

What Clegg offers is a real political alternative in a country fed-up with its politics. Since the MP expenses scandal rocked Parliament, the British electorate has become increasingly cynical about their leadership.

That leadership is perceived to be Brown and Cameron, not Clegg. The outsider-change narrative is fully on the side of the Liberal Democrats and their leader.

This does not mean Clegg has a chance at winning the election. The way the UK works, with gerrymandered districts and first-past-the-post voting, the Liberal Democrats aren’t likely to even come close to winning.

But it now seems likely their ascension will prevent Labour or the Conservatives from gaining a majority capable of forming a government, with a hung parliament the result. A coalition will need to be formed.

Clegg isn’t likely to buddy up to the Conservatives, whose right wing views on issues like immigration and Europe don’t jibe with his party, let alone his person (Clegg previously worked in Brussels, comes from an immigrant family, and has a Spanish wife).

So his partnership would be with Labour, a party who have made clear its desire to muddle through the UK’s fiscal crisis, rather than attack it.

The pound’s wobble on Sunday might be sign of further poll driven instability, as it seems the May 6 elections could produce the UK’s first hung parliament since 1974.

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from gamesmonitor, updated 18 April 2010: “By Mike Wells – Security precautions for London 2012 include the construction of a 17.5 km, 5,000volt electric fence, topped with 900 daylight and night vision surveillance cameras spaced at 50 metre intervals. On first sight of the fence you could be forgiven for thinking you had slipped through a wormhole in the space-time continuum to find yourself on the perimeter of a Soviet era Gulag…” more

Clique aqui ou na imagem para ler a matéria do baixaki e testar o serviço.

SILive (Michael J. Fressola)

Now that “Tutankhamun and the Golden Age of the Pharaohs” is headed this way (opening Friday in the Times Square Discovery Center), it’s the perfect time to attend “Tutankhamun’s Funeral” a small but disproportionately powerful installation at the Metropolitan Museum of Art.

Even people who aren’t keen on ancient Egypt, know that Tutankhamun’s tomb, which came to light in 1922, was the most intact royal cache ever recovered, a haul of solid gold objects, jewelry, clothing, furniture, weaponry, chariots and works of art. Today it fills 13 galleries in the Egyptian Museum in Cairo.

(In 1979, the touring extravaganza “Treasures of Tutankhamun” was so popular tickets were awarded by lottery. The show taught the Metropolitan and other institutions the art of the modern museum blockbuster.)

The show has objects (embalming equipment, dishes and plates, water jugs, linen kerchiefs, floral collars and the remains of a meal) recovered in 1907 in a burial pit, not far from Tutankhamun’s tomb, which would not be discovered for another 15 years.

Egyptology News Blog, Andie Byrnes

Pic Source

Amy Winehouse is back together with her Blake Incarcerated. Bring on the crack pipe! The loved-up twosome were snapped holding hands as they headed out for a night on the town last Saturday night — confirming months of speculation about the renewed status of their relationship.

Blake and Amy later made their way to a Soho jazz club where they celebrated Blake’s 28th birthday over wines and romantic soft tones.

The pair — who eloped in Miami in 2007 — divorced last September after a cheating scandal and crippling drug addictions brought their three-year marriage to an end. Amy, 26, even posted the following up on her Facebook page: “The King and Queen of Camden are coming home.”

“Amy was asking us to call her Mrs Fielder-Civil. They were very romantic together all night,” jazz club owner, Sam Shaker, told The Sun.

Recent rumors have Blake and Amy skating off to Las Vegas for a quickie wedding later this year.

Here I was, thinking Europeans were meant to be classier than Americans—but have you ever heard of a Rectum Bar outside of Vienna, Austria? Do you even know what a rectum is? More »

The Seattle Times (Sandi Doughton)

Seattle is in for a bout of Tut-mania.

The Pacific Science Center has announced details of a King Tut exhibit to coincide with the center’s 50th anniversary in 2012.

The exhibit headed to Seattle is “Tutankhamun: The Golden King and the Great Pharaohs.” It features 50 artifacts from the tomb of the boy king, including the golden sandals placed on his mummified feet. It also includes the largest statue of Tut and dozens of artifacts from 2,000 years of Egyptian history.

Pacific Science Center has been working for more than a year to land the prize, said board member Warren Buck, chancellor emeritus and physics professor at the University of Washington.

Egyptology News Blog, Andie Byrnes

Web filters are seen by lots of people as some sort of silver bullet for so many of the ills they see on the internet, whether it’s stopping piracy or blocking child porn or just “cleaning up the internet” in general. But there’s just one small problem with filters: they don’t work. Despite claims from politicians and other groups, they simply aren’t effective, and often end up blocking desirable content while letting undesirable stuff flow through. Given the long history of filter failures, it’s a little surprising to see people who seem shocked that filters don’t work. The latest example comes from The New York Times, which has discovered that YouTube’s Safety Mode filters don’t really work at all. The company’s weak defense of its poor filters seems more like a shrug of the shoulders than anything, creating an impression that the filters are there for appearances and little else. The NYT does deserve some credit, though, for recommending that parents take an active role with their kids in helping them determine for themselves what’s inappropriate viewing material on YouTube. That’s really the bottom line: you can’t expect filters to replace parenting.

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from ainfos, 18 April 2010: Declaration to the court read by one of the Turin anarchist anti-racists arrested on February 23 2010. “Bearing a sense of justice and freedom that has nothing to do with the law, every anarchist makes of his or her life a continuous invitation to struggle against injustice, and therefore to violate the laws that produce such injustice: the life of every anarchist is a long and reiterated ‘instigation to committing crime’…” more

from gipfelsoli, 4 April 2010: “On Sunday, June 27 2010 at 5pm there will be a Demonstration Against Prison in Toronto. Anarchists are organizing the demonstration as a part of the larger mobilization in opposition to the G20 meetings. This is a statement of our perspective and intention for the demo, more details to come soon…” more

desicritics.org (Dr Bhaskar Dasgupta)

The Egyptian Galleries in the British Museum are perhaps one of the most visited galleries. No wonder, the displays are just brilliant. Not surprised that Zahi Hawass, the Head of the Egyptian Antiquities Services goes into a catatonic apoplectic fits at the mere mention of the British Museum.

So what do you see as you enter the gallery? You see perhaps one of the most famous stones in the world.

Egyptology News Blog, Andie Byrnes

Japanese consumer sentiment hits a two-year high.

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(This guest post previously appeared at the author’s blog)

There is legitimate argument in the United States that a certain level of government spending was justified in 2009. Given the extraordinarily low levels of aggregate demand, high unemployment, high output gap, etc. the government had a certain amount of wriggle room in terms of bolstering the economy via spending without creating harmful levels of inflation.

Of course, as we all know now, much of this spending was poorly targeted and does little to target the actual problems in the United States (primarily the high level of unemployment), but this was nothing compared to what China has done to its economy.  Although China was suffering from a dramatic slow-down they had few of the problems that were crippling America.  Savings were high, debt levels were low, etc.  But they implemented a massive Keynesian response that is now rippling through an economy that is very much overheating.

We are now seeing signs that this government spending has resulted in increased mal-investment, rampant speculation and pockets of inflation.  The Chinese are attempting to front-run these issues, but like the U.S. Central Bank over the last 25 years, they are learning how difficult it can be for a Central Banker to thread the needle via monetary operations.  This evening, China implemented a “draconian” measure when the State Council stopped lending for third-home purchases.   China has benefited greatly from their recent move to more capitalist markets, but they are quickly learning the failings of the Keynesian belief that government can solve all problems via spending.  The Chinese market is down a whopping 4.8% overnight and in my opinion, remains the greatest threat to the global recovery.  GMO appears to agree.

Read more market commentary at The Pragmatic Capitalist >

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Antonio Banderas is working on a spinoff film starring his popular Shrek character Puss In Boots.

Although the Shrek franchise will bid goodbye to the box office with the fourth and final film in the DreamWorks franchise next month, the Spanish-born actor — who voices the wide-eyed, sword-wielding kitty in the hit films — will continue playing the title role in a new movie, which will also star Salma Hayek and Zach Galifianakis.

The story focuses on Puss’ childhood, Antonio explains: “I already did the first recordings and it’s going to be called Puss In Boots – it starts when he was very little. He was in an orphanage when he first discovered the effect he has on people – that’s when he starts being intelligent.”

Shrek Forever After opens in May.

Article Tags: Updated, You could not make it up

Climate change could spark more ”hazardous” geological events such as volcanoes, earthquakes and landslides, scientists have warned.

In papers published by the Royal Society, researchers warned that melting ice, sea level rises and even increasingly heavy storms and rainfall – predicted consequences of rising temperatures – could affect the Earth’s crust.

And some evidence suggests the consequences of climate change were already having an impact on geological activity in places such as Alaska, researchers writing in the journal the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A said.

Updated below in the comments section by Piers Corbyn

Source: telegraph.co.uk

Read in full with comments »   

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (EPA/ZUMApress.com)

The New York Times reported on a memo written by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in January about a paucity of U.S. policy options toward Iran if it continued with illicit uranium enrichment but stopped short of possessing a bomb. It’s a real problem — the proliferation equivalent of a bank robber pointing to the bulge in his pocket. (Does he have a gun or not?) By not declaring itself a nuclear power, something Obama administration officials say won’t happen for at least a year, Iran won’t have opted out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, but it will have increased its deterrent force by keeping its adversaries guessing about its actual nuclear capability. Gates’ memo asked if the U.S. was ready for that situation.

Image by: Matt Mahurin

Whether it was or wasn’t then, it’s pretty easy to see administration policy since then inclining to answer Gates’ question. It’s looking more and more like President Obama — who was so roundly vilified for deigning to propose, let alone pursue, a year’s worth of diplomatic outreach to the Iranian leadership — will be the one who shepherds an economic sanctions package on the Iranian regime’s key organs through the United Nations Security Council. After winning China’s acquiescence; spending almost a year and a half rebuilding relations with Russia; and leveraging new and less patient leadership at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the administration has pieces in position to unite the international community against Iran’s uranium enrichment. Even Obama’s chief Iran critic, his 2008 presidential rival Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), had to concede Wednesday, “I never thought a policy of engagement with Iran’s rulers would succeed, but I understand why the president pursued it.”

Beyond Iran, however, is the general problem of a hostile power nearing nuclear breakout capacity, something Gates’ memo correctly identifies as yielding unclear sanction under the NPT. Maybe that’s why next month, the signatories of the NPT will gather in New York to strengthen its provisions. And according to administration officials, one of the areas the U.S. wants to focus on is creating new rules for when signatories face greater penalties for drifting into noncompliance, perhaps through increased verification authorities and responsibilities for the IAEA — something last week’s nuclear security summit in Washington didn’t really substantively address — allowing the international community to have earlier warning into prospective breakout capabilities. The penalties that would come into force in such a case remain to be proposed, debated and accepted or rejected, of course. But the whole discussion speaks to the lacunae that Gates frets over in his memo.

What should be clear is that the memo doesn’t propose going to war, nor does it make war more likely. Administration officials have never ruled out any option on Iran. But they have leaned, at every step, on measures that attract wide international support and deny that support to Iran — from diplomatic outreach; to intensifying diplomacy when word of the Qom reactor leaked; to the proposal for enriching Iran’s uranium to a bomb-incapable state in a third country; to, as the result of the first three, economic sanctions. The administration shows no sign of changing that fundamental strategy.

Seen from that perspective, the prospect of military action, ahead of a push to sanction Iran at the U.N., would place that strategy at risk. The coalition Obama has stitched together might fray if other countries view the sanctions maneuver as a pretext for military strikes. Hence Gates’ own clarifying statement:

The New York Times sources who revealed my January memo to the National Security Advisor mischaracterized its purpose and content. With the Administration’s pivot to a pressure track on Iran earlier this year, the memo identified next steps in our defense planning process where further interagency discussion and policy decisions would be needed in the months and weeks ahead. The memo was not intended as a “wake up call” or received as such by the President’s national security team. Rather, it presented a number of questions and proposals intended to contribute to an orderly and timely decision making process. There should be no confusion by our allies and adversaries that the United States is properly and energetically focused on this question and prepared to act across a broad range of contingencies in support of our interests.