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 Understanding Financial Risk Modeling – written is simple language, shows pitfalls of Monte Carlo simulation, discusses financial crisis – Surly Trader

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Why Japanese Bonds Yielding 1.3% Offer Highest Return – By Wes Goodman – Nowhere are yields as low as in Japan’s debt market and nowhere are returns higher as Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s government fails to stop deflation.  The combination of the fastest drop in consumer prices in five decades and the yen trading at about a 14-year high has turned Japanese government bonds into the past month’s best performers … – Bloomberg

2s-10s – Yield Curve Risks ‘Short Term’ Narrowing: Technical Analysis – By Liz Capo McCormick – The difference, or spread, between yields on 2- and 10-year Treasuries will likely narrow after failing to break a key resistance level, according to a Citigroup Inc. report citing technical indicators.  The yield curve steepened 2 basis points today to 272 basis points, after widening to as much as 276 basis points on Dec. 11, the most since June 5, when it touched a record 281 basis points. – Bloomberg

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Greenspan: Bernanke Is Out Of Bullets, Now Inflation Is The Big Risk – Joe Weisenthal – yuck … – Clusterstock at Business Insider
versus
Time Magazine – Person of the Year 2009 (Bernanke) – The story of the year was a weak economy that could have been much, much weaker. Thank the man who runs the Federal Reserve, our mild-mannered economic overlord – TIME Magazine – the bloggers will go crazy over this (BC) 

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read this good historical perspective – Bond price crash is the surest bet in town – Jeremy Warner – Past performance, all financial advisers are obliged to tell you when seeking to stuff your hard-earned nest egg into the latest investment fashion, is no guide to the future – Telegraph UK
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Interest Rates Are Low, but Banks Balk at Refinancing – By DAVID STREITFELD – Mortgage rates in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels since the 1940s, thanks to a trillion-dollar intervention by the federal government. Yet the banks that once handed out home loans freely are imposing such stringent requirements that many homeowners who might want to refinance are effectively locked out – NY Times

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Filed under: Spy Photos, Crossover, Ford, Lincoln

Ford and Lincoln‘s crossover offerings are plentiful, but all attention is being paid nowadays to the boxy-yet-practical Flex and hit-by-the-ugly-stick MKT. What about the Edge and MKX? This duo was launched years before the automaker’s polarizing pair of three-row CUVs arrived.

Well, their due for redesigns. Or at least, according to these spy shots, refreshenings of their front and rear ends. In the Edge’s case, that means making the already handsome people mover look a bit more windswept, though it appears things will stay largely the same between the A- and D-pillars.

The changes look more substantial for the MKX, which launched before Lincoln debuted its increasingly ubiquitous doubled-winged grille design. That punum looks pretty okay on the MKS sedan and like a baleen whale on the oversized MKT. It looks just right on the MKX to us.

Ford and Lincoln may have other news about the Edge and MKX for us – powertrain and infotainment upgrades most likely – at the 2010 Detroit Auto Show in early January, which is when we expect to see these new looks formally trotted out on stage.

[Images: KGP Photography]

Spy Shots: Lincoln MKX and Ford Edge redesigns caught nearly naked originally appeared on Autoblog on Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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We’ve covered how libel tourism has become a big problem, usually in the UK, where defamation laws are much more ridiculous. However, it seems (oddly) that one American company, Evony, has decided to take a UK blogger to court in Australia for libel, after being upset about what that blogger wrote about the company. Once again, to make this clear, it’s a US company suing a UK blogger for libel… in Australia. This story originally came out last week (when a few of you submitted it), but I had hoped to wait for a hearing this past Monday determining if the case would go forward. However, it now appears that the hearing has been postponed until February because Evony changed lawyers.

Evony is apparently quite upset at the way blogger Bruce Everiss criticized some of its activities, even though plenty of others have been equally critical of Evony, its marketing practices and how the game itself works. Of course, the further Evony (formerly Civony) takes this whole thing, the more attention it will draw to its practices. It’s hard to see how that is a sensible move. Whatever you might think of how Evony conducts its business, the way it conducts its legal campaigns seems reason enough to avoid having anything to do with the company.

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by Loretta Hunt

One of my family members was playing out and there was a person that was riding around on a honda. They weren’t paying attention to the road, and they ran my little brother over. My dad brought him to the clinic, then he was medivacked to Nome. He was hurt, but he was okay. People should think carefully about driving safely.

I would like to keep people safe from killing themselves. If they have an accident and end up dying it will affect their families. They will start feeling sad and down. It will make a single parent have a hard time with their kids. It is better if we stop letting people drive fast and crazy.

I would like to keep people safe when they are walking. It is better if they drive slowly so they wouldn’t run young kids over. When my little brother got run over, I felt very scared and sad at the same time. It can break the little kid’s bones when they get run over. I would like to put up some signs about driving carefully.

If some one drives crazy, they can wreck their honda, skidoo, or car. It will cost a lot of money to fix their honda, skidoo or car. You will have a hard time getting stove oil and water. You will also have a hard time getting to places. People shouldn’t wreck up their stuff, so they wouldn’t have a hard time in your life.

Fortunately, my brother’s body had no broken bones and I am very happy that it wasn’t a very bad accident. If it was a very bad accident, I would be very disappointed and sad that I would have no more brother little to play with. This is why I would like people to drive safely.

Not that it will be greatly missed, but TamsPPC has been able to confirm with HP Europe that the HP Glisten will not be making it across the pond.

HP’s Austrian press department said:

Dear Sir,
we are sorry but the HP iPaq Glisten will not be made available in EMEA. It is an US only product.

With best regards…

The HP Glisten is not the most high-end device possible, mainly due to the small,  low resolution screen, but it ticks most other boxes, and it is a shame to see any Windows Mobile device confined to only one market.

Are you in Europe and hoping to pick up the Glisten?  Let us know in the comments below.

Filed under: Etc., Videos, Humor

If your Jeep Cherokee has been sitting around for a while, it probably makes a few noises. You might not mind, though, if they were noises as well orchestrated as those in the video shown above.

British saxophonist Julian Smith spent a few hours with a Cherokee and an array of friends with rhythm and came up with a number that could be straight out of Stomp. Or an Art of Noise album. Follow the jump to see the vid, and as a bonus, there’s another take on car beats with Snob Scrilla and a Toyota Yaris. Thanks for the tips, everyone!

[Source: YouTube]

Continue reading VIDEO: In Da Club Cherokee? Enterprising kids go all Jeep techno

VIDEO: In Da Club Cherokee? Enterprising kids go all Jeep techno originally appeared on Autoblog on Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Sichuan Sheng, China | Curious Places of Worship

The Bodhisattva Samantabhadra, or Puxian in Chinese, is said to have meditated on Mount Emei, and has thus been dubbed protector of the area and patron Buddha of the monasteries in the region.

Located atop Mount Emei, in Sichuan, China, this epic statue, at 48 meters high, is the 22cnd tallest statue in the world. But its height is not its most notable feature, so much as its unique head, as this massive graven image faces in ten directions, one for each of the Bodhisattva’s ten truths of universal worthiness.

Located on one of China’s four sacred Buddhist mountains, The Golden Summit Temple is accessible by foot or by cable car. The journey on foot takes about 2 hours up steep stairs, and winding through the valleys and up the mountain one can spot numerous Tibetan macaques. The monkeys will gladly take food and drink from visitors, and have been known to do so whether one permits them or not.

The views and landscape can tend to be foggy, rainy, or snowy if visiting in winter, and it is suggested to visit in autumn for clear views. The Golden Summit Temple is situated behind the statue of Puxian, and between the two visitors may burn incense offerings toward the Bodhisattva.

In general Mount Emei and the surrounding areas are covered in Buddhist temples and monasteries, a particularly important and sacred place to followers. At one time there were many more monasteries, but the apex of Chinese Buddhism has come and gone since it was first introduced over 2000 years ago. Even still, each morning countless Buddhist pilgrims can still be seen climbing the mountain.

First Drive: 2010 Lexus LS460 Sport Package is F-ing with perfection

Lexus is serious about offering more performance-oriented vehicles, but does the LS460 Sport Package fall in-line with the F-Sport ethos? We find out in our First Drive.

North American Car and Truck of the Year awards get shortlisted – Who are your winners?

The top 25 contenders for the North American Car and Truck of the Year Awards have been announced and the nominees for 2010 are some of the most interesting to date. Did your pick make the list?

Aston Martin shows off completed Cygnet, Euro sales in 2010

When the Aston Martin Cygnet appeared earlier this year, we were convinced it was an April Fools joke delivered a few months too late. Apparently, the joke’s on us. The Toyota iQ-based minicar is coming and production begins in 2010.

Also of interest:

• 2011 Audi A8: The first production vehicle equipped with Google Earth
• Followup: Mystery Dodge Journey SRT R/T might be the real deal
• Detroit Preview: 2011 BMW 740 brings six-cylinder power back to the 7
• Geneva Preview: Rinspeed to unveil the UC? electric city car
• Justin Timberlake named new Audi “brand ambassador”

Browse our archive of Daily U-Turn posts or subscribe to the RSS feed

Daily U-Turn: What you missed on 12.16.09 originally appeared on Autoblog on Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Published Dec. 16, 2009
Sara Schilling, Tri-City Herald

KENNEWICK — Larry Seifert isn’t quite done with his autobiography but he already has a title picked out.

He’s going to call the book Larry Seifert: He Overcame because his life has been about meeting challenges in the face of tough odds.

Seifert, 58, of Kennewick, suffered brain damage as an infant and is developmentally disabled. As a child he was called “mentally retarded” and his mother was urged to institutionalize him.

But he’s since earned a GED, attended college, gotten a pilot’s license and traveled the world telling his inspiring story. He’s made headlines across the country and has appeared several times in the Tri-City Herald.

A 1986 Herald story tells how Seifert shared his study methods with special education students in Los Angeles.

An article six years later tells how CBS This Morning visited the Tri-Cities to document his graduation from Columbia Basin College.

“Larry is just a wonderful story,” a CBS producer told the Herald at the time. “He’s the little engine that could. He keeps on working at it and working at it and working at it.”

Friends say that still holds true today. Seifert works as a custodian at Kamiakin High School in Kennewick, a position he’s held nearly 30 years. He’s meticulous about budgeting and owns his own home, where he lives independently.

“Larry is just amazing. I’ve never met a more driven individual. If there’s something he really wants to do and sets his mind to it, he really, really works to accomplish it,” said Korey Van Kampen, Seifert’s pastor at King of Kings Lutheran Church in Kennewick.

Seifert is proud of the work he’s done on his home, including adding an extra bathroom with a jetted tub to help his bad back. Ron Greer of Pasco, a retired contractor and Seifert’s longtime friend, helped with the project.

“(Seifert) is as honest a person as you ever want to meet and a good, hard worker,” Greer said. “He’s just a good guy.”

The Kennewick man has been working on his autobiography for several years. He writes in his home office, which is filled with pictures and certificates chronicling his achievements.

There’s a photo of him with the Beach Boys and others with politicians such as former Washington Gov. Booth Gardner.

There also are snapshots of him behind the controls of an airplane.

When Seifert was a little boy, he dreamed of becoming an astronaut or pilot. Hard work helped him make his dream of flight come true, and he’s writing the book to inspire others to overcome their own obstacles, he said.

Seifert has had plenty of help along the way — from his late, beloved grandmother, Meta Eliason, to friends in the Tri-Cities and across the country. He has a long list of people who are providing input on his book via e-mail.

Seifert hopes to have the autobiography published so that his tale of overcoming obstacles can reach even more people.

“I need to open doors for others,” he said. “I need to show employers (that people with disabilities) can do good work.”

He also wants to show people with disabilities that “they can own property, travel, be independent like everybody else,” he said. “No matter what kind of handicap you have, you can work around it.”

Additional news stories can be accessed online at the Tri-City Herald.

via irr, 16 December 2009: “Since it opened earlier this year, the UK’s newest and biggest immigration prison has barely had a day without trouble. However, Corporate Watch has learnt that things have become “much worse” lately, both for the detainees and for their visitors. Meanwhile, the G4S management is apparently recruiting new security guards as staff shortages have led many detainees to repeatedly miss doctors’ and court appointments…” more

The article reviewed here is a 2009 editorial ‘Prospects of Psychosomatic Medicine’ by Komaki and colleagues and freely available here. In the introduction, the authors inform the reader that the Japanese Psychosomatic Society was founded 50 years ago. They suggest some of the ways in which the emphasis in psychosomatic medicine in Japan has changed. On reading this, I was interested to see how different models were being used over time and how these models had the potential to impact on practice. The interaction between mind and body is complex as are the ways in which this can be conceptualised and such discussions and shifts in perspective take place in other countries also. I was curious to understand what the catalysts for such changes in perspective might be. They also refer to their journal – the biopsychosocial medicine journal which is an Open Access Journal available here.

The authors then discuss the use of fMRI and EEG to investigate the issue of mind and brain (see a model of the mind and brain reviewed here). The authors look at studies exploring the relationship between genes and mental illness including anorexia, irritable bowel syndrome as well as stress-related illnesses. These include murine studies. The authors then look at behavioural studies and epidemiological data and draw an interesting relationship between  presentation to A&E with coronary heart disease and prominent national football or Sumo matches!

Much of the research described was biological psychiatry. If we were able to trace a pathway from conscious and unconscious processes in the mind through to brain activity and then somatic activity it is easy to see that this is a complex multifaceted process which uses different descriptive languages according to the stage in this process. It would be interesting to see at which point in this process the emphasis occurs within both local and national services and to clarify the details of how such models are transformed into clinical processes.

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You can follow ‘The Amazing World of Psychiatry’ Twitter by clicking on this link

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You can listen to this post on Odiogo by clicking on this link (there may be a small delay between publishing of the blog article and the availability of the podcast).

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You can follow the TAWOP Channel on YouTube by clicking on this link

Responses

If you have any comments, you can leave them below or alternatively e-mail [email protected]

Disclaimer

The comments made here represent the opinions of the author and do not represent the profession or any body/organisation. The comments made here are not meant as a source of medical advice and those seeking medical advice are advised to consult with their own doctor. The author is not responsible for the contents of any external sites that are linked to in this blog.

Filed under: Aftermarket, Sedan, Performance, Luxury

It took us a while, but we have finally realized what’s going on: tuning companies are overstocked with Butt Ugly. They didn’t ration their supply properly, now they’ve got unused cases of Butt Ugly lying around, stinking up the place. That’s why we’ve been assaulted with all these steaming piles lately — because 2010 Butt Ugly will be shipping soon, so all this 2009 Butt Ugly has got to go go go!

And that’s the best explanation we can come up with for this, the FAB Design Full Broadside Porsche Panamera. The “extrovert Wide Bodykit” is fashioned entirely from carbon fiber, not that it helps any. If we have anything nice to say, it’s that we don’t mind the wheels or three trapezoidal exhaust tips. Nor do we mind the upgraded engine doing 690 hp. But that wrapping… oh, the humanity…

FAB suggests this is what its customers want, saying that its tweaked Panamera is the first of its new FAB Exclusive line. Praise be it will be limited to 15 units. The press release is after the jump, and to those that can, have a look at the FAB Panamera from every angle in the gallery of high-res photos below. Hat tip to Johannes

[Source: FAB Design]

Continue reading FAB Design makes the Ugliest. Panamera. Ever.

FAB Design makes the Ugliest. Panamera. Ever. originally appeared on Autoblog on Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Japan, Asia | Unusual Monuments

This massive, towering visage of Amida Nyorai, known more commonly by his Sanskrit name Amitābha, was the tallest statue in the world for a time. Its reign lasted from when it was finished in 1995 until 2002, when an effigy of Vairocana was completed in Lushan, China. Since then, another statue was completed in Myanmar that is 6 meters taller, making this Japanese giant the 3rd tallest statue in the world.

The deity depicted, Amitābha or “Buddha of Infinite Light”, is a celestial buddha, as described in the Mahāyāna scriptures. In Japan, Amida Nyorai is the central buddha of the Pure Land sect. Amida is known for his good deeds spanning innumerable past-lives, after attaining enlightenment, he allowed himself to be continually reborn to help others, the true sign of a Bodhisattva.

One can take an elevator to an observation room in the chest of the statue, from here the beautiful countryside is in plain view.

Today the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of State, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Security Agency released 162 pages of intelligence oversight reporting in response to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit filed by EFF in July.

The reports, made to a presidential advisory committee called the Intelligence Oversight Board, detail intelligence activities that the agencies “have reason to believe may be unlawful.”

EFF is reviewing the documents now and has posted them on our website. Some of our initial finds include reports that:

• The Department of Homeland Security improperly investigated the U.S.-based religious organization the Nation of Islam.
• High-level Pentagon officials gave false information to Congress about al-Qa’ida and the 9/11 attacks.
• The Department of Homeland Security improperly collected intelligence about a non-violent Muslim conference in Georgia, including details about conference speakers who were Americans.
• The National Security Agency admitted that, as of late 2007, it lacked processes and procedures for timely reporting of intelligence oversight violations.

The media has already started reporting on the discoveries in these documents. We’ll continue to sift through these records for more important information, and hope reporters and others do the same. EFF filed this lawsuit because Americans deserve to know about incidents of intelligence misconduct — how often they happen, and how effective oversight is for controversial programs. Now that we have some of the records we are seeking, it’s time to bring that misconduct to light.

A federal judge indicated during a hearing yesterday that she intends to order other intelligence agencies to produce similar documents to EFF throughout January and February of next year. We expect those disclosures to include reports from the CIA, Department of Defense and the Defense Intelligence Agency.