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  • REPORT: Volkswagen confirms Karmann purchase, plans to build new car at factory in 2011

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    Volkswagen AG has announced it will be establishing a new manufacturing unit in Osnabrueck, located in VW’s home state of Lower Saxony, Germany. Interestingly enough, VW will be purchasing the land, equipment, and machinery formerly owned by Karmann — the coachbuilder and convertible roof specialists who manufactured the classic Beetle-based Karmann Ghia coupe (Karmann filed for bankruptcy protection in April, and has been struggling since).

    Production of a new vehicle at the plant is slated to start in 2011. In the meantime, 200 people will be needed to open the plant next year, and VW is estimating more than 1,000 new jobs will be created by 2014. Volkswagen AG has not disclosed which model will be built at the plant, or any financial details.

    [Source: Automotive News – Sub. Req.]

    REPORT: Volkswagen confirms Karmann purchase, plans to build new car at factory in 2011 originally appeared on Autoblog on Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • Jeff Saut: Even If Stocks Are A Bubble, Everyone Has To Keep Buying

    In his latest later, Raymond James strategist Jeff Saut argues that even if there is something like a bubble in stocks, everyone has to keep buying into it, or else they lose their jobs.

    Thus, the trend remains your friend.

    Nevertheless, we think the upside should continue to be driven by “game theory,” which suggests that the under-invested institutional portfolio managers have to buy stocks into year-end driven by their under-performance, their subsequent “bonus risk,” and ultimately their “job risk.”  Verily, many of the portfolio managers we know remain under extreme pressure to commit their outsized cash positions in an attempt to “catch up” to their benchmarks between now and year-end (see the nearby Credit Suisse institutional cash versus retail cash on the sidelines chart).

    Reinforcing that game theory point Jeremy Grantham notes:

    “In markets where investors hand over their money to professionals, the major inefficiency becomes career risk.  Everyone’s ultimate job description becomes ‘keep your job!’  (Manifestly) Career risk-reduction takes precedence over maximizing the client’s return.  Efficient career-risk management means never being wrong on your own, so herding, perhaps for different reasons, also characterizes professional investing.  Herding produces momentum in prices, pushing them further away from fair value as people buy because they are buying.”

    Jeremy goes on to note a couple of insightful points: “Refusing, on value principal, to buy in a bubble will, in contrast, look dangerously eccentric.  And when your timing is wrong, which is inevitable sooner or later, you will in Keynes’ words – ‘Not receive much mercy’” – he sums up what that means to the folks who try not to go with the herd and do the right thing, “Today the challenge is not getting the big bets right.  It’s arriving back at trend with the same clients you left with . . .”

    Plainly, we agree with Mr. Grantham, which is why we continue to think the improving fundamentals, and earnings, will serve as the “carrot in front of the horse” to keep investors chasing stocks even if we do get a near-term pullback.

    instituationalandretailassets.jpg

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  • Dear Rupert: You Don’t Succeed By Making Life More Difficult For Users

    Well, look at that. Last week it was just a silly suggestion from some netheads, and now come reports that Rupert Murdoch is at least in the early stages of considering opting out of Google, with Microsoft paying it to be “exclusive” on Bing. Apparently, Microsoft has actually approached a few publications about doing similar deals. It’s no surprise that Microsoft and Murdoch would explore this. Microsoft has experimented for years with programs to bribe people to use its search engine over Google’s — but it hasn’t done much to help. Meanwhile, Murdoch continues to not actually understand how the internet or copyright law works, and has some oddly misplaced dislike for Google (despite the fact that Google alone is pretty much what kept Murdoch-owned MySpace alive for years, and Murdoch owns a bunch of sites that aggregate info just like Google).

    Still, if this does go forward, it will signal incredibly short-sighted thinking on the parts of everyone who participates. The initial reaction would be significantly less traffic to any site that agrees to participate, considering that Google still drives a ton of traffic to most major sites. Simply giving that up for a chunk of cash is a very risky proposition. Second, in factionalizing the web, it harms everyone. No one wants to have to think about which sites are included in which search engine, and if the battle begins in earnest, then you have a situation where you end up in an inevitable stalemate, with certain sites in Google’s search engine, but not in Microsoft’s, and others in just Microsoft’s but not Google’s — and no one wins. Third, the cost of this program to a company like Microsoft to make it meaningful is huge. It’s much bigger than the numbers that were being tossed out before. Finally, all this would really do is open up new opportunities for one of three things (or a combination) to happen (1) a new meta search engine shows up that aggregates both Microsoft and Google results (2) technology hacks that will allow you to combine the two results in one or (3) Google realizes that it has copyright law fair use on its site and keeps indexing sites anyways. I’m not sure Google would take that last step, but if things go nuclear, it might make the most sense.

    But the key thing is that none of this does anything to help users. And that’s the problem. It’s not adding even the tiniest sliver of additional benefit to users. And these days, that’s a strategic error. If your business is focused on making life more difficult for a competitor, rather than adding more value to users, you’re doing the wrong thing. Microsoft and News Corp. should be trying to provide more value to users, and instead, they seem to be plotting ways to make consumers’ lives more annoying and more difficult. They may think that’s smart, but in the long term, such strategies always backfire.

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  • How Does Technology Help The Police?

    Technology helps the police stop crime. It also helps criminals commit crimes. But that’s another question and another answer. For now technology is good. And here’s why:

    Police National Computer (PNC)

    In the UK the police have a national computer database which stores data on criminals, vehicles and property. It can be accessed by officers in seconds through over 30,000 terminals across the country.

    National Fingerprint and DNA Database

    If you’ve ever committed a crime and got caught then the police will have your fingerprints and possibly your DNA. In the UK the DNA database stores over 3.4million DNA profiles and plans to collect many more. There has been a fair amount of controversy recently concerning the number of years suspected criminals should have their DNA on the database for, and the implications on children. Police and the Government argue that the system has helped them convict some pretty nasty people.

    Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR)

    ANPR is the technology which allows police forces across the globe to track, record and survey vehicles. It uses optical character recognition allowing images to be recorded electronically. It’s very good for stopping people from speeding and making them pay fines if they do and for the implementation of tolls and charges. All the things most people don’t really like. In the US the system is known as License Plate Reader (LPR) technology.

    Polygraph

    Catching criminals is a tricky business, especially when a lot of them tell big fat lies. So the police invented a machine that would know when people were fibbing. It was called the polygraph and you will have seen it in all good American police films. The machine measures blood pressure, pulse, breathing, body temperature and skin conductivity while the suspect is questioned. The needles ink the paper and if the suspect lies the polygraph goes crazy. That’s the theory anyway. However, it is not 100% trustworthy.

    Taser Gun

    The Taser is an electroshock weapon the police use to immobilise suspects by means of an electrical current. The current momentarily disrupts voluntarily control of the muscles. The gun fires two small dart-like electrodes which stay connected to the main unit by conductive wire. The electrodes are pointed to pierce clothing and barbed to stay in the skin. Tasers have been linked with deaths and it has been suggested that their use amounts to torture.

    Pepper Spray

    When faced with rioters the police will often fire pepper spray in as many angry faces as possible. The spray is made to make people cry, literally, as well as stop breathing, momentarily, and run away. It can even cause temporary blindness. The spray can be made from chilis and other fruits of the Capsicum family or synthetically. It is stored in small canisters and aimed directly at the eyes.

    Airwave Radio

    In the UK the police now have an all new radio system to help them communicate more effectively. The device known as Airwave contains an emergency button on each phone which an officer can press if in trouble. It is clearer and more secure and is compatible with mobile applications. It can also be shared between local, national and emergency services. Importantly Airwave now also works below ground in all London Underground stations following problems during the terrorist attacks in July 2005.

    Rumble Sirens


    Police forces in the US are piloting a new kind of police car. Not only does it make a sound and flash its lights when speeding to an emergency it also rumbles, shaking the ground up to 200 feet away giving pedestrians and other drivers advance notice to MOVE!!! The technology is currently being tested in New York.

    Real Time Crime Center


    The Real Time Crime Center (RTCC) was set up in 2005 by the New York Police Department and IBM as a means of fighting crime through improved technology. The system amalgamated all the data NYPD already had on criminals (names, identifying features, past crimes, addresses) making it instantly accessible through a 24-hour manned IT center. It gives police more time to police and criminals less time to escape.

  • How To Bet On Emerging Market Banks

    itau unibanco

    Despite their reputation as risky bets, many emerging-market banks–along with their countries’ economies in general–fared much better during the last two years than their more “developed” cousins. Even within the developed world, there are dramatic differences between the performance of banks that took on too much risk and those that did not, with some banks having nearly destroyed their businesses and others winning market share as their rivals struggle. We think the significant divergence among international banks during the last two years will extend into the recovery, and we expect to see stark contrasts between the winners and the losers in both the speed and strength of their recoveries.

    Brazil
    After they reported third-quarter earnings, the three Brazilian banks we cover–Itau Unibanco (ITUB), Banco Bradesco (BBD), and Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR)–all displayed a common theme: The worst of the crisis may be over in Brazil. Together with Banco do Brasil, a government-controlled bank, they dominate Brazil’s banking market. Although we think there are some convincing data points to support this optimism, we doubt that there will be a sharp recovery–especially with regard to credit quality.

    Although nonperforming loans (NPL) kept climbing across the board, they did so at a slower clip. The pace at which net new NPLs are forming has been constantly declining since early 2009. Hence, we think that in the near term we should start seeing NPL balances actually declining. Another heartening indicator was the fall in early delinquencies–loans overdue between 30 and 60 days. That said, though it is commonplace for banks in emerging markets to have high bad-loan balances that are compensated by fat interest margins, we think NPLs of around 7% or more are no laughing matter. To be sure, even though nonperforming loans may start to trend down, actual loan losses should remain higher than usual for some time, which will pressure banks’ bottom line, in our view.

    Notwithstanding, Itau’s and Bradesco’s profitability has shown signs of resilience, with returns on equity staying around 20%. For these two, we think that after a couple of quarters or so, we should start seeing returns creeping back to their former levels of around 25%. The laggard, Santander, still has to cope with higher bad-loan balances and provisions to replenish its reserves which will prevent it from enjoying as speedy a recovery as its competitors. Further, it has by far the fattest equity base, which quells its returns. Nonetheless, even comparing returns on assets, it is way behind.

    A significant portion of Brazil’s economic recovery–which arguably started in the second quarter–is because of the country’s domestic demand, particularly from individuals. In our opinion, a growing middle-income class that consistently calls for more financial products will continue to provide fertile grounds for banks to profitably expand.

    Switzerland
    The results of Switzerland’s largest two banks, UBS (UBS) and Credit Suisse (CS), continued to demonstrate the divergent impact of the financial crisis. Credit Suisse, which stayed away from accepting government support, has been profitable every quarter so far in 2009, even earning an return on equity of around 25% in the third quarter, as it benefited from its client-focused business model and solid reputation. So far this year, it has garnered net new asset inflows of more than CHF 30 billion, demonstrating its clients’ faith in its solid private bank. UBS, on the other had, has steadily reported losses, losing some CHF 4 billion thus far in 2009, as it suffered continued write-downs on its trading assets and a shrinking business. The damage done to its reputation, both by losses at its investment bank and numerous scandals at its private bank, shows up in its net new assets. In sharp contrast to Credit Suisse, UBS has so far shouldered net asset outflows of more than CHF 90 billion in 2009. We expect the banks’ fortunes in 2010 to be similarly divergent–UBS will struggle to reach any profitability, in our estimation, while Credit Suisse will likely report profits near precrisis levels.

    Ireland
    A sharp fall in credit quality at Bank of Ireland (IRE) in the half ended Sept. 30 and at Allied Irish Banks (AIB) in the half ended June 30 underscores that these once-mighty Irish banks are far from out of the woods. Ireland’s dramatic slowdown–real gross domestic product is expected to shrink 7.5% in 2009 and housing prices have fallen 25% since their peak in early 2007–has hit its banks hard. One, Anglo Irish, was nationalized entirely in January, and AIB and Bank of Ireland face massive government bailouts, capital raises, and asset sales. Although there are some small signs of improvement–Bank of Ireland’s loan/deposit ratio fell to 152% in September from 161% as of March 31, 2009–there’s little that can counterbalance the growing weight of the banks’ bad-loan portfolios. Troubled loans made up 10.6% of Bank of Ireland’s portfolio as of Sept. 30, and the figure is likely to be even higher at AIB when it next reports detailed results at year-end, given its larger portfolio of property and construction loans. The future of both banks looks highly uncertain. The European Union is likely to demand significant asset sales from both as a consequence of their dependence on state aid, and the banks are unlikely to ever again consistently post boom-years-sized profits.

    United Kingdom
    Across the board, declining credit quality negatively affected the results of Braclays (BCS), HSBC (HBC), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), and we expect the pattern to continue at Lloyds (LYG) when it reports later this month. The weak U.K. economy–real GDP is expected to decline 4.6% in 2009–is dragging down all of the banks’ results, but there were stark differences between the banks that have weathered the downturn in fairly good shape and those that have not. HSBC, buoyed by its exposure to China and emerging markets, said that pretax profits were strongly ahead of last year’s numbers on a like-for-like basis, though it released few details. Similarly, Barclays said that profits more than doubled from last year’s numbers, excluding one-time items, as it benefited from strong trading results. In contrast, Royal Bank of Scotland announced that the government would take up another GBP 25.5 billion stake in the bank to help it cope with its rapidly declining credit quality. Shareholder losses have been almost GBP 3 billion year to date. We expect this divergent performance to continue in 2010, as HSBC and Barclays report near-normalized results and RBS and Lloyds report losses.

    India
    In India, the superiority of HDFC (HDB) over ICIC (IBN) is as clear as ever, in our view. In part because of much better credit quality and wider interest margins, the former’s returns have stayed at relatively healthy levels. Not quite 20%, but with returns on equity around 17%, they compare favorably with those of many other financial institutions, in our opinion.

    ICICI is still losing deposits at an astonishing pace. Although the bank claims it is letting its most expensive deposits run off, we think that if it goes too far, it may have to resort to costlier debt to fund loan growth. So far, in contrast with HDFC, ICICI’s loan balances have been quickly declining, but once demand kicks back in earnest, we think margins may contract if the firm’s deposit-gathering efforts do not bear fruit.

    As with many other emerging markets, signs of amelioration are starting to show mostly through plateauing NPL balances. India’s economy is set to grow at an annual clip of between 5% and 6%. Even though this is still a ways from the 9%-10% growth rates it saw during the boom years, we think it is an interesting alternative that stacks up well against other emerging economies’ growth rates.

    Japan
    Despite the return of profitability at both Nomura Holdings (NMR) and Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) we don’t see many signs of progress at these Japanese banks, which appear doomed to eternally repeat their mistakes. Once lauded for initially avoiding the subprime contagion, Japanese banks found themselves also raising dilutive capital as the crisis continued, and we’re not sure that these highly leveraged institutions are done stabilizing their balance sheets. Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU) is rumored to be planning a capital raise of roughly JPY 1 trillion ($11 billion), a massive amount by any measure, after raising a similar figure within the last year. Furthermore, while Goldman Sachs (GS) returned to posting double-digit returns on equity soon after the financial crisis began to wane, banks like Mizuho returned to only a modest level profitability after a multibillion dollar loss in its last fiscal year. Nomura picked up Lehman Brothers’ Asian operations for a song last year, but it is just beginning to see benefits on the revenue side, while compensation costs have been taking a toll on results for some time. The disastrous combination of high leverage and low core earnings power will continue to take a toll on most of these institutions for the foreseeable future, in our opinion, and the country is continuing its long battle with deflation.

    Korea
    Across the Korea Strait, South Korea’s Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) saw small improvements in credit statistics, while KB Financial Group (KB) third-quarter income suffered from increased provisioning. Both banks benefited from falling interest rates, improving their net interest margins by lowering rates on deposits and making loans at higher credit spreads. Although the Bank of Korea was widely expected to raise rates as the domestic economy improved–the country’s economy grew by 2.9% in the third quarter–the central bank chose not to do so at its most recent meeting, potentially boosting both net interest margins and GDP growth in the coming quarters. Although the South Korean banks have historically shown higher profitability than their Japanese peers, they’ve been subject to some of the same disturbing herding tendencies as their neighbors. For instance, the country had its own financial crisis only a few years ago as a result of excessive credit card spending, yet credit cards remain a major focus of growth efforts at South Korean banks. There is certainly room for growth compared with the United States, which has a larger number of cards outstanding per capita, and delinquency rates remain low, but we’re remaining cautious considering the country’s recent history.

    The Winners
    The financial crisis provided a graphic demonstration of the differences between high-quality banks and lesser performers, many of which are now out of business. However, opportunities have also been created for surviving institutions. We believe the following banks are best-positioned to profitably gain market share as the global economy recovers:

    financial bank winners

    Morningstar Equity Analysts Maclovio Pina and James Sinegal contributed to this article.

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  • Israel Outlaws Private Prisons

    Israel’s Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that the mere existence of private prisons in the country is a violation of prisoners’ constitutional rights.

    In an 8-1 decision, the court overruled a decision passed by the Knesset in 2004 to allow the state to outsource its incarceration to private companies. One company had already built a prison and begun to hire staff when the state issued an injunction against opening in March. The company is expected to sue the state for the cost of building the prison.

    The court explained that housing prisoners for profit is inherently a violation of their human rights. The decision brought to a close a case brought by the Academic College of Law in Ramat Gan more than two years ago.

    (more…)

  • Management’s Role in Reforming Health Care

    Q&A with: Richard M.J. Bohmer
    Published: November 23, 2009
    Author: Martha Lagace

    Despite the urgency of debate on the U.S. national stage about health-care reform, an issue now before the U.S. Senate, one crucial element of change has been less visible: advances in the delivery of medical services.

    Innovations in health-care delivery—applying the best available medical knowledge to solving the problems of individual patients—offer enormous potential to help patients and the U.S. health-care system overall, says HBS senior lecturer Richard M.J. Bohmer, a physician and researcher on the intersection of medical care and management practice.

    Bohmer’s new book, Designing Care: Aligning the Nature and Management of Health Care (Harvard Business Press, 2009), explains how to create more knowledgeable, flexible, and responsive delivery organizations.

    “I don’t think we can stop health-care reform if and when we come to agreement about an optimal insurance model,” says Bohmer. “For me, insurance reform is a necessary but not sufficient component of health-care reform.

    “It is hard not to feel that the cart has been put before the horse,” he continues. “We ought to think about the optimal way of caring for a particular type of patient and then how to pay for that optimal way rather than say, ‘Here’s the payment regime, what can we do in this context?’

    “For me, the optimal way is the function of a science: what is possible in terms of drugs, technology, devices, information technology, and personnel; then secondarily, the current regulations in place and the payment models. Part of the purpose of writing Designing Care has been to emphasize the design-of-services component of reform.”

    At Harvard Business School Bohmer teaches an MBA course on health-care operations management, codirects the joint MD/MBA program, and serves as faculty chair for two Executive Education programs in health-care delivery. A native of New Zealand, he teaches and consults on health management issues in numerous locations around the world. With Thomas H. Lee, MD, Bohmer authored the opinion piece “The Shifting Mission of Health Care Delivery Organizations,” which appeared in the August 5, 2009, issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.

    Bohmer recently sat down with HBS Working Knowledge to explain how managers can apply their skills and knowledge to improve health-care systems. (A book excerpt from Designing Care follows.)

    Martha Lagace: How does health-care delivery fit into the greater context of health-care reform?

    Dr. Richard Bohmer: Broadly speaking, health-care reform encompasses three big issues: insurance reform, payment reform, and reform of our delivery system. For me, these are three separate but related conversations, clearly not independent of each other. Most of the conversation has been about insurance: how we pay for it and how we ensure that even more Americans are insured and that more are even better insured.

    Very little of the debate, so far, has been about how to organize the delivery of care. Instead, the debate takes the care delivery system we have at the moment as a given, though there has been a little discussion on the optimal design of IT systems for delivery.

    In my opinion, there is another important set of discussions to be had around how we actually organize care. Many of these issues are managerial in nature, rather than policy issues. Questions we need to answer include:

    • What is the best way of configuring and managing services?
    • Who are the professionals we need?
    • What is the optimal setting and context in which they should be delivering care?
    • What processes should they use?

    There are all sorts of operating managerial and strategic decisions that we haven’t even talked about at a policy level and national level. Yet at ground zero, lots of interesting experiments are underway with professionals trying different ways of configuring and managing services. On that list I include experiments with disease management programs, substituting nurse practitioners for physicians in certain circumstances, the in-store clinic model for treatment of simple diseases, as well as experiments with IT to enable precise electronic communication between patients and doctors so that real medical discussions can be had at a distance.

    At the national level we don’t hear much about these innovations—yet they present an equally important set of issues. We need to make a distinction between debating how it will be paid for and what the “it” is that is paid for.

    Q: What are the drivers of change in health-care delivery?

    A: Several factors are pushing us to change how we deliver care. Perhaps the most important of these is changing expectations. Patients are used to good service from other industries and expect higher performance than they see on the delivery sector. They obviously worry a lot about whether their insurance will cover the medical services they need, but they are also really concerned about the care they get: how accurate, reliable, and fail-safe it is, and how responsive and convenient it is. Employers expect better outcomes, and of course they and patients want fewer errors and fewer patients harmed by care that was intended to cure their disease. Finally, all health care’s constituents expect better value.

    Having said that, I think we have to recognize that in the last 10 to 15 years there have been substantial advances. Mortality rates for major procedures and conditions have been trending steadily downward.

    A second important driver is the evolution of scientific knowledge and of the technology that goes along with this evolution. Little by little, our uncertainty about the cause of a disease or the optimal therapy for each disease is reducing. As we improve our knowledge of what to do, the object of management attention becomes organizing how we do it. We can focus much more closely on managing the actual care rather than the context in which the care takes place. For most of the 20th century the object was managing the institution that served as the context for care—the “doctor’s workshop.” Over the past 10 to 15 years the object of management attention has widened to include the care itself. With the development of generally accepted standard processes we have become able to design operating systems specifically to support those processes and assess performance through measures of process compliance.

    Q: What key innovations are you seeing on the delivery sector?

    A: Some of the most important innovations are not technologic—they are in the way we organize care delivery. As I’ve mentioned, these include disease management programs that target the sickest patients, new venues of care and caregivers, and tools and systems that help and allow patients to be more effectively involved in their own care.

    To date, our prevailing model of innovation has been that knowledge flows into medical and nursing practice from funded external research. In this model it is the role of provider organizations to bring knowledge published in the medical and nursing literatures to bear on individual patients by selecting the right therapies and the right way of implementing those therapies: a one-way flow of knowledge from the research community to the delivery community to each individual patient.

    However, routine practice is itself a fertile source of innovations in care, in both what to do and how to do it. Medical knowledge and how to operationalize it can be learned through taking care of patients, and delivery organizations create knowledge for themselves. This is knowledge flow not from bench-side-to-bedside, but from bedside-to-bedside. New insights derived from practice can be brought to bear for the benefit of each subsequent patient.

    Some health-care organizations, such as Intermountain Healthcare and Kaiser Permanente, are a great deal better at capturing these innovations than others. For Intermountain and Kaiser the notion of knowledge evolution is central to their thinking about how to manage the organization. As delivery organizations become more focused on how to manage the care, learning to capture their own knowledge about it becomes progressively more important. So perhaps the most important innovation is organizational—the creation of organizational structures and processes that foster learning in routine practice and the creation of more effective models of care delivery.

    Q: How can better management improve health-care delivery?

    A: What I have described above is much of what managers do: design and run organizations that deliver a service effectively and reliably and at the same time that are capable of learning systematically from their own experience. Some of the leading organizations have deliberately designed the way they work. Historically, the hospital aggregated important resources for care, such as technology and an all-important nursing workforce, but it rarely designed care processes to meet the needs of specific patient groups. Given the increased expectations of performance, we now need to design care by asking nitty-gritty design questions such as: How is care going to be delivered? Who will do what, when, where, and how? How will they hand over tasks and decision rights and accountability to the next person who will do what, when, where, and how? And how does technology support these decisions?

    Hence, a lot of health-care reform is a management problem. It can’t be solved by policymakers acting at a distance. That is why we should devote time to training and supporting managers in practice. I also believe we should help doctors understand the managerial issues related to their clinical practice. My involvement with the MD/MBA program at Harvard Business School is part of that belief. I personally think HBS has a huge contribution to make, because we spend our time studying how to manage things better to give better outcomes.

    Q: What can business schools do?

    A: There has been a sometimes implicit, sometimes explicit, belief that business and health care do not mix. I think what people mean when they express this belief is that the profit motive in health care bothers them. Yet business schools think about management practice. A not-for-profit institution deserves to be as well managed as a for-profit institution. In terms of health-care delivery, the absence of a profit motive doesn’t mean that people should tolerate poorly designed processes and systems—especially when organizational performance is a necessary component of realizing the absolute best clinical outcomes for individual patients.

    If a physician’s ability to cure or mitigate a disease is governed by both clinical competence and managerial competence—which I believe to be true—then I think we should pay closer attention to managerial competence within the health-care sector.

    I am pleased that schools of management are so interested in health care. Not just at HBS but all around the country, schools of management are turning operational management attention to these kinds of questions, and that’s fantastic. A whole lot of people are thinking about different components of this basic problem.

    Excerpt from Designing Care: Aligning the Nature and Management of Health Care

    By Richard M.J. Bohmer

    At its heart, health care is the application of a general body of knowledge to the needs of a specific patient. For centuries this knowledge was generally regarded as the property of the healing professions and the individual clinician, not the health care delivery organization. Managerial practice too treated this knowledge as an attribute of the provider, thus focusing on the resources clinicians used as they provided care and on the hotel functions of inpatient institutions. That is, there was a deliberate demarcation between management practice, focused on business processes, and clinical practice, focused on the activities and decisions of diagnosis and treatment.

    However, health care delivery has been undergoing a gradual but important change. Patient care, once the domain of the individual practitioner, is becoming the domain of the care delivery organization. The mission of these organizations is shifting. As science, technology, care processes, and care teams have become more complex and diverse, the way in which the activities of care are organized and the institutional context in which they occur have become an increasingly important determinant of the effectiveness and efficiency of that care. Thus the object of management has changed. In response to these changes, health care managers have started attending to the management of the care as well as the management of the institutions in which the care takes place.

    The tools used for managing care have largely focused on getting clinicians to do what was known, thus treating the knowledge for care as scientific, static, and a property of the professions and the individual professionals. Consistent with this view of the knowledge for care, management tools such as practice guidelines, performance measurement and reporting, and financial performance incentives for physicians have predominated.

    This approach to the management of the care itself has, however, failed to account for several significant changes in the nature of the knowledge for care and the way it is applied in practice to patient health problems. These changes include increasing knowledge specificity and the standardized sequential care processes this has allowed; the experimental nature of some care and the iterative process this requires; the dynamic relationship between iterative and sequential care processes; the interplay between scientific and organizational knowledge in care delivery; and the organization’s role in developing and maintaining the knowledge for care, both scientific and organizational.

    Accounting for these requires a fundamentally different approach to managing care. Operating systems and processes must be deliberately designed to realize great medical outcomes; past experience suggests that they cannot be presumed to reliably result from existing organizational and operational arrangements. Underpinning these designs is the need for health care delivery organizations to develop their own knowledge bases for solving health problems. And a capacity for learning—creating and disseminating the scientific and organizational knowledge for care—must be deliberately designed. Contrary to individual learning, organizational learning does not happen naturally.

    Given the organization’s key role in reliably creating cures and preventing errors, the question is not whether to create organizations capable of providing patient relief, but how. Performance improvement in health care delivery ultimately means the better application of medical knowledge and must address three key underlying problems: not knowing what to do, not doing what we know, and not doing it well. This is predominantly a management problem. It cannot, in the final analysis, be achieved by policy means acting at a distance. Policy interventions, such as new financing and payment models or health plan contracts, can only provide an incentive for change. Nor is it simply a matter of adopting wholesale a successful management model from another industry. It is more difficult than this. For improved performance to be realized, managers acting locally need to design processes and organizations that are more effective at executing on the knowledge for care.

    Although the previous chapters have described some principles for designing care, and several specific designs, they have deliberately not specified a dominant design, arguably because none exists. Local conditions—for example, patient needs, regulatory constraints, human and technological resources—vary to such an extent that each organization, even when applying the same principles, will likely arrive at a different operating system design. Instead, this book has focused on the design principles of and capabilities for two key operating systems that need to be deliberately designed if they are to perform optimally: the operating system for delivering the care that we know, and an operating system for creating new knowledge about which care to deliver in the future and how to better deliver it. Central to understanding how to design processes and operating systems is an understanding of the nature of clinical processes and the relationship between the medical knowledge, care processes, organizations, and practitioners.

    The book has also focused on the dynamic relationship between the above two operating systems. Because each of the four components of a system for delivering health care continues to change, ongoing redesign—that both reacts to, and creates, new knowledge and then implements it in the care of the next patient—will be a constant feature of managers’ and clinicians’ working lives. Understanding the relationship between the four components, and between the operating systems for delivering care and learning from care, will be essential for care delivery organizations as they think through how they will approach care in the future and how they will cope with this constant change. The capacities to do the redesign work, and to accept the results of the redesign, are perhaps the most important capability an organization can have and value…. [W]ithout deliberate design, health care delivery organizations will continue to disappoint.

    About the author

    Martha Lagace is the senior editor of HBS Working Knowledge.

    Reprinted by permission of Harvard Business Press. Excerpt from Designing Care: Aligning the Nature and Management of Health Care. Copyright 2009 Richard M.J. Bohmer. All rights reserved. Purchase the book.

  • Hyundai bumps the output of Genesis V8 by 10hp for 2010

    Filed under:

    Even with two completely redesigned models debuting in the coming weeks, Hyundai won’t leave its carryover models alone for the 2010 model year. Engineers have tweaked the 4.6-liter V8 in the Genesis sedan and extracted an extra ten horsepower from the Tau to bring peak output up to 385 hp at 6,500 rpm.

    Hyundai Technical Center powertrain director John Juriga acknowledged that the performance stats will remain the same, but drivers will be able to feel the increased grunt. The revisions not only increase output, but also improve the refinement and driveability of the V8 to feel more responsive at the low end of the tach.

    To achieve its goals, Hyundai added a two-step variable induction system that varies the flow through the intake manifold at low and high rpm, along with continuously variable valve timing on both intake and exhaust, larger valves, and a chromium nitride coating on the pistons to reduce friction. The updated Genesis sedans will be arriving in dealerships later this year.

    [Source: Hyundai]

    Hyundai bumps the output of Genesis V8 by 10hp for 2010 originally appeared on Autoblog on Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • DirectX to survive in Windows Mobile 7 after all

    wm7directxThere have been some talk of Microsoft phasing out DirectX for OpenGL on Windows Mobile handsets, but a recent job posts by the Windows Mobile team seem to suggest this will not be the case after all.

    The post makes numerous references to DirectX in both its 2D and 3D version.

    SENIOR Software Development Engineer (SDE) (705110 -External) Job

    Date: Nov 18, 2009

    Job Category: Software Engineering: Development
    Location: United States, WA, Redmond
    Product: Windows Mobile Devices
    Division: Entertainment & Devices Division

    Lead a team to deliver the graphics platform for Windows Mobile and grow it over future releases. Knowledge of DirectDraw, D2D, and D3D a must. Familiarity with display drivers and GPUs a plus. Must be able to debug complicated low level problems and analyze performance.
    RID:862920

    DirectX on Windows Mobile is a double edged sword.  While a good implementation on Windows Mobile would ease the porting of games from the desktop, the rest of the mobile world uses OpenGL, meaning porting for example iPhone or Android games would be more difficult.

    Microsoft has however been doing some good work recently with using DirectX hardware acceleration for HTML rendering in IE9, so it may very well be that we are yet to see the full potential of the technology on our devices.

    See the job posting here.

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  • Return of Paperboy? Honda unveils Bicycle Simulator

    Filed under: , ,

    You remember Nintendo’s Paperboy, right? Back in Triassic era of videogames, you had to deliver the day’s print to the right house while not getting run over by a car or taken out by a tire. Not exactly the most direct way to learn bicycle safety, but it was fun. A more efficient way to stay safe on a bicycle is Honda‘s new simulator, which aims to teach two-wheeled folks better on-the-road safety.

    Traffic fatalities have fallen in Japan but bicycle fatalities have apparently risen, with teens and older riders the biggest victims. The majority of the problems apparently stem from breaking traffic rules, so the simulator allows riders to learn the ways of the asphalt without getting clobbered by a Daihatsu, and provides both learning and a “rider evaluation session” after the demo.

    Honda is accepting pre-orders now, and the simulator will go on sale in Japan starting next February. For the full scoop, check out the press release after the jump.

    [Source: Honda]

    Continue reading Return of Paperboy? Honda unveils Bicycle Simulator

    Return of Paperboy? Honda unveils Bicycle Simulator originally appeared on Autoblog on Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • How To Understand The Treasury’s Upcoming Liquidity Crunch

    Earlier we mentioned the NYT’s warning over the deficit, and the back-breaking balloon payments we face when we have to refinance the debt.

    This graphic from the article, nicely shows that 36% of U.S. government debt is due within on year. While the Fed is helping with ultra-low interest rates, thus allowing the U.S. government to roll over maturing debt at lower rates, this won’t last forever.

    crunch

    The implication is that once U.S. interest rates eventually move higher, a large chunk of debt will suddenly have substantially higher interest costs.

    Read the detailed article at the New York Times.

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  • US Fish and Wildlife Service Works with Partners to Restore Habitat Using Recovery Act Funds: $1.5 Million and New Jobs to Improve Habitat for Migratory Birds and Salmon

    Contact: Amy Gaskill, APR
    Phone: (503) 231-6121
    FFS #R1EA/R1EB

    PACIFIC REGION – The Pacific Region’s Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program will receive $990,000 in funding through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) to restore and enhance 3,400 acres of wetland, riparian and forest habitat for migratory birds, marbled murrelets, chum salmon and other sensitive wildlife species, Robyn Thorson, Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Pacific Region, announced today. These projects are expected to create nearly 30 jobs for several months. In addition to the ARRA funding, nearly $530,000 in private funding will be applied to the restoration effort.The Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program has allowed the Fish and Wildlife Service to establish productive relationships with communities, conservation partners, tribes and more than 30,000 landowners while providing both financial and technical assistance. Since its creation in 1987, the Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program has established more than 28,000 agreements with landowners resulting in the restoration of over 1.06 million acres of uplands, 649,300 acres of wetlands and 4,670 miles of riparian and in-stream habitat. To date, the Pacific Region’s Partners Program has worked with more than 2,000 partners to restore over 200,000 acres of upland and wetland habitats and 2,000 miles of riparian and instream habitat and to remove more than 250 fish passage barriers.

    Recognizing that more than 60 percent of our nation’s land is in private ownership, the health of many populations depends on habitat found on private lands. State resources agencies work closely with the Fish and Wildlife Service to help establish priorities and identify focus areas. With just a little encouragement or assistance from the Fish and Wildlife Service, our partners have undertaken thousands of restoration projects.

    ARRA will help fund the following Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program projects during the next 18 months:

    Crystal Creek Ranch Stream and Wetland Restoration Project, Idaho – $430,000 (ARRA), $529,832 (Private Funds) = total $959,832

    This project will restore 150 acres of wetland habitat and enhance an additional 596 acres of wetland, 793 acres of upland and 161 acres of riparian habitats over the 1,700-acre project area on the Crystal Creek and Spring Creek Ranches in Blaine County, Idaho. The project will be cost-shared with the owners of the two ranches, and a conservation easement and management plan will be established on over 1,300 acres to permanently protect the area from development. Ducks Unlimited and the Idaho Department of Fish and Game are also cooperators on the project. The total cost of the project will be approximately $960,000, including nearly $530,000 of private funds. ARRA will directly fund the wetland restoration phase of this multi-phased project. Restoration activities include excavation of wetland basins and planting vegetation in 13 wetlands. Other enhancement activities include livestock grazing and irrigation management in the wetland areas, which vary in size from one to 14 acres.. Once completed, these restored wetlands will complement stream and riparian restoration work proposed for the area in the future. The project is expected to employ one heavy equipment construction contractor with a crew of five for six months, one re-vegetation contractor with a crew of six for one year, and four environmental contractors, including two biologists and two engineers, for one year. The project will also provide economic benefits to multiple secondary businesses that will provide supplies and materials such as water control structures, pipe, fuel, rock and other materials.

    The goal of this habitat restoration project is to restore and permanently protect habitat on the ranch to conserve migratory birds and a variety of sensitive wildlife species, including bald eagles, great blue herons, long-billed curlews, sandhill cranes and trumpeter swans. The ranch owners eventually plan to build an Interpretive Center where the public can learn about the history of early settlement and ranching in the Wood River Valley, the restoration of habitat and conservation of fish and wildlife on the ranches, and how a working cattle ranch and wildlife conservation can coexist. The ranch owners would provide the funds necessary to construct the interpretive center separate from the ARRA.

    South Willapa Bay Forest Restoration in Washington — $560,000 (ARRA)

    This project will receive $560,000 to restore marbled murrelet and chum salmon habitat in the Ellsworth Creek Preserve near Willapa Bay in southwest Washington. Elsworth Creek is the largest chum salmon stronghold in the Willapa Bay. These funds will be used to hire regional crews to thin 1,700 acres of an overstocked young forest as part of an innovative, landscape-scale forest restoration program. Thinning these forest stands will accelerate the development of habitat for the marbled murrelet, a species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and other older forest-dependent species. This project is also expected to improve the health of the forest by making it less susceptible to disease, and to also enhance hiking and hunting experiences by making the trails more accessible. Dense second-growth forests that are thinned to facilitate mature old-growth conditions will not require associated infrastructure work, thereby eliminating the movement of dirt that would diminish water quality in the creek where chum salmon thrive. The project is expected to be completed by summer 2012. There is no cost-share requirement for this project, however, The Nature Conservancy is providing substantial on-the-ground work in the associated Ellsworth Preserve that benefits both marbled murrelet and chum salmon.

    Under ARRA, the Department of the Interior received $3 billion, providing $280 million for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service that includes $115 million for construction, repair and energy efficiency retrofit projects at Service facilities and $165 million for habitat restoration, deferred maintenance and capital improvement projects. The Service will benefit from an additional $10 million, administered by the Department of Transportation and not included in the Service’s $280 million appropriation, which will be used to rebuild and improve roads on several national wildlife refuges. Projects will immediately create local jobs in the communities where they are located, while stimulating long-term employment and economic opportunities for the American public.

    “We are making a bold investment in 21st century jobs and 21st century technologies on our public lands to meet our energy needs, rebuild our economy, and protect our environment for future generations,” Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar said.

    The Department of the Interior’s investments under ARRA will help conserve America’s timeless treasures – our stunning natural landscapes, our monuments to liberty, the icons of our culture and heritage – while helping middle class families and their communities prosper again. Interior is also focusing on renewable energy projects, employing youth and promoting community service.

    For a full list of funded projects nationwide, go to the Department’s Recovery Web Site at http://recovery.doi.gov/. For a list of Service projects, click on the Service’s logo at the bottom of the page. Secretary Salazar has pledged unprecedented levels of transparency and accountability in the implementation of the Department of the Interior’s economic recovery projects. The public will be able to follow the progress of each project on the recovery web site, which will include an interactive map that enables the public to track where and how the Department’s recovery dollars are being spent. In addition, the public can submit questions, comments or concerns at [email protected].

    Secretary Salazar also has appointed a Senior Advisor for Economic Recovery, Chris Henderson, and an Interior Economic Recovery Task Force. Henderson and the Task Force will work closely with the Department of the Interior’s Inspector General to ensure the Recovery Program is meeting the high standards for accountability, responsibility and transparency that President Obama has set.

    The mission of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is working with others to conserve, protect and enhance fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats for the continuing benefit of the American people. We are both a leader and trusted partner in fish and wildlife conservation, known for our scientific excellence, stewardship of lands and natural resources, dedicated professionals and commitment to public service. For more information on our work and the people who make it happen, visit www.fws.gov.

  • China Begs Banks To Cut Back On Lending

    yuanpile.jpg

    Perhaps China has finally realized its artificially inflated quantitative easing dream can’t go on forever.

    In the past, they’ve tried to encourage banks to lend more prudently, but they might actually enforce some hard and fast rules.

    NYT: Chinese banking regulators are putting pressure on the country’s banks to raise more capital and temper their rapid growth in lending, in the clearest signs yet of official concern about the sustainability of the nation’s credit boom, senior Chinese bankers said Monday.

    Essentially, it boils down to capital requirements for Chinese banks.

    Under pressure from the government to offset the drag on the Chinese economy from plunging exports, Chinese banks lent more money in the first seven months of this year than in the two previous years combined. They have only gradually begun to moderate their pace of new loans this autumn.

    Reuters, citing a source, reported Monday that the China Banking Regulatory Commission was asking big banks to raise their capital adequacy ratios to 13 percent by the end of next year, compared to a broad industry average of 11 percent in China now. The commission denies this.

    Read the whole thing >

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  • Corporate affairs VP Denise Kaigler leaves Nintendo

    Nearly two years after she took a VP seat at Nintendo of America, Denise Kaigler has announced that she will be leaving the company, citing family r…

  • Ukrainian Black Lung Deaths Doubling Every Two Weeks Throughout Europe

    ukraine flu soccer

    The mutated H1N1 strain that’s been making its way across Europe continues to claim more lives.

    Bloomberg: Across the region, 670 people infected with the new H1N1 influenza strain have died since April, the Stockholm-based ECDC said today in a report on its Web site. Cases are being reported in all European Union and European Free Trade Association countries, ECDC said.

    The infection, which causes little more than a sore throat, fever and a cough in the majority of cases, has hospitalized more than 4,400 people in Europe to date. Among those, the U.K. has 180 H1N1 patients in intensive care units, France has 81, the Netherlands 38, Norway 24 and Ireland 20, ECDC said.

    Well at least people aren’t dying every couple of minutes, right? Wrong.

    The number of deaths (670) is three more than the agency stated in an earlier version of the report obtained by Bloomberg News before its scheduled release at 9 a.m. central European time.

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  • Audi announces Truth in Motion documentary about U.S. ski team [w/VIDEO]

    Filed under: , ,

    Truth in Motion announcement trailer — Click above to watch the video

    Following last year’s Truth in 24, Audi is turning its keen lenswork to the U.S. Ski Team with a documentary called Truth in Motion: The Road to Vancouver. With multiple subjects this time, and less about domination than revelation, the film will showcase the stories of team athletes as they prepare for the 2010 Olympic Winter Games.

    It will air for the first time at the end of January, about two weeks before the Olympic cauldron is lit on February 12. You can read all about and check out the trailer after the jump.

    [Source: Audi]

    Continue reading Audi announces Truth in Motion documentary about U.S. ski team [w/VIDEO]

    Audi announces Truth in Motion documentary about U.S. ski team [w/VIDEO] originally appeared on Autoblog on Mon, 23 Nov 2009 07:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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  • O2 officially launches the HTC HD2

    O2 is pleased to announce that the HTC HD2 will be on sale in-store today, bringing the eagerly awaited handset to the home of smartphones. Available from free on O2 Pay Monthly, the HD2 packs in a massive 4.3-inch touch screen, fast processor and camera with LED flash into a package just 11mm thick and weighing in at 157 grams.

    “The HTC HD2 is the first HTC branded phone to be sold on O2. We love the large screen and combination of Windows Mobile 6.5 with HTC Sense,” said Steve Alder, General Manager Devices for O2 in the UK. “We are proud to be the home of smartphones and the HTC HD2 adds a new dimension to the range of devices we offer to our customers.”

    Jon French, Executive Director UK & IE, HTC, said, “The close partnership between HTC and Microsoft means we are able to bring HTC Sense, a customer experience which makes the phone work in a more simple, natural and personal way, to a Windows phone for the first time with the HD2. With one of the largest screens in the market, the powerful and ultra-thin HD2 offers users an amazing mobile experience.”

    The HTC HD2 is powered by a 1Ghz processor and has built in Wi-Fi, GPS, and FM radio. It has YouTube, Facebook and Twitter integration and a MicroSD card slot for expandable memory, as well as a standard 3.5mm audio jack, Bluetooth and microUSB charging port.

    The HTC HD2 will be available in-store and over the phone. To find your nearest O2 retail store, visit http://www.o2.co.uk/shop/retailstores.

    Despite the press release I cant quite find the device on O2’s pages, but I am sure the guys and galls on the telephone will be able to help you with your HD2 thirst without any problem.

    Via Coolsmartphone.com

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  • CDS Volumes Spike As Traders Bet The U.S And U.K. Will Default

    Red Flag

    Trading volumes have spiked for credit default swaps that insure against default by developed nations such as the U.S., U.K., and Japan according to The Financial Times.

    Meanwhile, the volume of trading for similar bets against emerging markets has been falling.

    FT: In the past, the CDS market for developed countries was sluggish, because few investors saw the need to buy or sell protection against a risk of default that seemed exceedingly remote.

    However, rising debt levels and growing political and economic uncertainty have created a more active market, with more investors now seeking insurance. Meanwhile, many banks are prepared to offer protection in exchange for a fee.

    This fee has recently jumped, since the cost to insure the debt of developed countries has increased since the summer of last year, while the cost of insuring emerging market debt has fallen.

    Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution, said: “The biggest single risk hanging over the bond markets is the rapid rise in public debt in the industrialised world.

    “If we get to a point where the market thinks the levels of debt are unsustainable, then we will see an almighty sell-off in the government bond markets, with yields soaring. Governments need to take action to cut deficits and debt.”

    Read more here.

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  • ESPN Writer Suspended From Twitter

    Earlier this year, we noted that ESPN had come out with rules on how its staff could (and could not) use Twitter. Apparently, Bill Simmons broke those rules, and has been suspended from Twitter for two weeks. His crime? Apparently calling radio station WEEI, a partner of ESPN, deceitful scumbags. That does seem a bit over the top, but why should ESPN have a say in how Simmons uses a totally unrelated service in which he speaks his mind? If he’s going to say something dumb, isn’t that his decision?

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  • China: The Vampire Squid Of Commodities

    For my final report on the 2009 ASPO peak oil conference, I must address the world’s new prime mover of commodity demand: China.

    With flat-to-declining economic growth rates in most of the rest of the world, the Red Dragon has emerged as the dominant force driving global demand for natural resources.

    Adam Robinson, a Vice President at RBS Sempra Commodities who gave an excellent talk on the oil trade and its relationship with the recession, noted that China’s willing to buy oil in size at $55 a barrel for its strategic stocks, providing a natural floor for global prices.

    Steven Kopits, the managing director of Douglas-Westwood LLC, said China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s top consumer of oil by 2018. In fact if supply is available, he thinks it could double U.S. consumption by 2025.

    Tom Petrie, Vice Chairman of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, essentially agreed. In his model, all of the growth in oil demand through 2030 comes from non-OECD countries, with China accounting for fully 43%. The IEA anticipates that absolute oil consumption in the OECD will fall over next 20 years by about 3 mbpd, while China’s increases by 9 mbpd.

    Investors are looking at the convergence between falling OECD oil demand and rising demand in non-OECD, Robinson explained, and after taking monetary policy into account, see commodities winning either way.

    His reasoning is astute: Even if the Fed’s fiscal stimulus turns to drag, and we don’t get the recovery, then where does the dollar go? Down – which will be bullish for commodities. And if we have a V-shaped recovery, demand and prices will rise – again, bullish for commodities.

    Voracious Demand

    In his presentation on China’s oil and gas balance, Michael Rodgers of PFC Energy made one thing abundantly clear: China’s domestic oil production has nearly peaked, while its demand for oil is only going up.

    China currently accounts for about half the total oil production of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia combined:

    china-crude-production.png

    Source: PFC Energy

    The crude oil reserve balance for Asia went negative in the early 1980s, when the region began producing more oil than it was discovering. Like the rest of the world, most of its current production is from large reserves discovered in the 1960s and 1970s, supplemented by smaller discoveries since. The region’s current deficit is about 1.5-2 billion barrels per year.

    china-annual-volumes-chart.png

    Source: PFC Energy

    After years of continuous increase, China’s oil production base is now in decline with overall depletion levels of 60%. Fields producing prior to 2000 are generally declining at rates of 5-7% per year, but mature fields are declining by as much as 16-20%. China expects enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology to bring the overall decline rate to 6.7%.

    New fields should allow it to maintain a production plateau around 3.6-4 mbpd for another 8-10 years in the PFC forecast. But then China will see a “catastrophic” drop in production as mature fields, accounting for 3 mbpd of production now, fall to about 1 mbpd by 2020.

    Against a GDP growth rate of 8-8.5%, the stagnant supply picture means that China’s demand for oil imports will grow from 4 mbpd today to over 10 mbpd by 2020. China now constitutes 7.5% of global GDP and 9% of global oil demand, which will soon grow into the teens.

    An appetite like that, Rodgers said, means China must do exactly as it has been doing: aggressively compete with the rest of the world to secure reserves, and export workers.

    The picture for natural gas is slightly better, but also points to sharply increasing imports. China’s gas consumption is expected to rise from 7.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in 2008 to over 30 Bcfd by 2030. Domestic production should keep up with demand until around 2014—at which point imports will have to pick up the slack—and peak around 2020.

    China is already building pipelines from every possible direction to import gas. I’m sure I’m not the only one who, looking at the following map, thinks “vampire squid.”

    china-vampire-squid-map.png

    Source: PFC Energy

    China’s demand for coal is just as astonishing: In just the last four years, Kopits observed, itsincrease in demand for coal was equivalent to the total U.S. coal demand.

    Vince Matthews, director of the Colorado Geological Survey, rounded out the picture with some stunning facts on the demand for minerals and other commodities. China is:

    • The #1, #2 or #3 producer in the world for 15 of the most important commodities;
    • The #1 importer of copper, accounting for more than 40% of world demand;
    • Both the #1 producer in the world of iron ore and the top importer;
    • The #1 car manufacturer in the world, and the #1 car market. (Petrie later made a similar point: China is now second only to the U.S. in first-class interstate highways.)

    Consider this little factoid: China built 70,000 new supermarkets in 2005 alone. For a little perspective on that number, the 2002 census counted about 150,000 “food and beverage stores” in the United States.

    That voracious demand drove up prices across the board. Matthews ran down a list of price increases from various months in 2003 to the present:

    • Copper up 307%
    • Scrap iron up 559%
    • Molybdenum up 997%. Exports from the U.S. doubled, most of which went to China.
    • The average price increase of major metals was 379%, and the average price increase was 746% for 15 other industrial metals.

    Although prices for many of the metals fell sharply in the commodity crash last year, they’re now staging a comeback, driven by Chinese demand.

    Worse, most of these metals are bought via long term contracts, not on the spot market. When those contracts expire, Matthews expects spot prices to spike again.

    Even cement demand was disrupted when China when began importing it in 2003, resulting quickly in price spikes and shortages in the U.S. China now consumes half of all the cement in the world.

    The resources causing the most consternation, though, are the rare earth elements. As I discussed in September, China has a virtual corner on the world supply of these crucial elements, which are used in wind turbines, solar equipment, parts for hybrid cars, and many of the other solutions for a post-peak oil future.

    The U.S. now imports between half and all of its supply of the rare earths, putting it at China’s mercy for some of the raw materials that would be needed for a “Made in the U.S.A.” renewable energy revolution.

    Indeed, Matthews believes that China intends to take advantage of its position by clamping down on its exports of rare earths, to bring world manufacturing to them.

    But perhaps this should not unduly alarm us.

    If China is clear-headed and deep-pocketed enough to invest in the energy solutions of the future while we are not, and they can build them faster and more cheaply than us, then maybe it’s time to stop worrying and learn to love our new Chinese overlords.

    Outmaneuvering America

    Rodgers has no doubt that China understands peak oil and expects future supply disruptions, which is why it’s accumulating foreign assets and diversifying its import options.

    Peter Dea, the president of oil and gas exploration and production company Cirque Resources LP, made the same point a bit more obliquely, rhetorically asking if China had no doubts about the future of oil, why would they have recently outbid Exxon Mobil for new drilling in Ghana?

    Putting a finer point the difference between the strategies of the U.S. and China, Dea wryly observed that the U.S. has potential for offshore drilling for natural gas, but “it won’t be developed until the U.S. takes energy resource planning as seriously as China does.”

    That doesn’t appear to be in the offing any time soon. Washington doesn’t seem to understand the commodity markets at all, Matthews said, nor the shrewd moves that China is making. While Japan already has a strategic mineral stockpile, and China is quickly amassing one, the U.S. is selling off its key minerals: “The lack of knowledge and concern over it in Washington is horrifying, and I can’t explain it,” he moaned.

    Well, I have explained it: America has no energy plan, and we won’t have one until we give up our fantasies about energy independence or drilling our way out, admit that oil is peaking, and get serious about planning accordingly.

    While America was busy with its hallucinated wealth meltdown and trying to raise some cash by selling assets at garage sale prices, just one of China’s three major oil companies, CNPC, secured 75 resource projects in 29 countries.

    Another of the three, energy giant China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), just bought oil assets in the US for the first time. The size of the deal for four deepwater exploration licenses in the Gulf of Mexico was undisclosed, but Norway’s Statoil, the seller, characterized it as “small.”

    Still, the purchase is bound to make it more difficult for China to maintain a low profile as it snaps up resources.

    Perhaps that’s why it has begun trying to cover its tracks: China OGP, an oil industry newsletter issued by Xinhua news agency, recently announced that it would no longer publish data on China’s stockpiles of crude oil, gasoline, and diesel. (As if that data weren’t hard enough to get already! Killin’ me.)

    The lesson on China for retail investors should be clear: Buy domestic reserves while they’re cheap, and hold ‘em, hold ‘em, hold ‘em.

    This post originally appeared on Chris Nelder’s blog GetRealList. Click through for more good stuff →

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