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  • Yelp Earnings: Net Revenue Up 65% Year-Over-Year

    Yelp released its Q4 and full-year 2012 earnings report on Wednesday after market close. The company posted net revenue of $41.2 million for the quarter, a 65% year-over-year increase. Yelp also posted a $5.3 million net loss for Q4.

    Cumulative reviews grew 45% year-over-year to over 36 million by the end of the year. Average unique monthly visitors grew 31% year over year to about 86 million. Active local business accounts grew 68% year-over-year to approximately 39,800.

    Yelp also announced that in January, it surpassed 100 million uniques for the first time, and put out an infographic about it.

    CEO Jeremy Stoppelman said, “2012 was a tremendous year for Yelp. We completed a successful IPO, launched new products to improve the Yelp experience for consumers and business owners, expanded into new markets while increasing our presence in existing ones, and completed our first acquisition. We believe 2013 will be a tipping point for our brand in Europe as Yelp continues to become a trusted local resource. Our mobile strategy will remain a top priority as engagement increases, and we will continue to focus on the business owner, creating more ways to measure the value of Yelp leads.”

    Here’s the release in its entirety:

    SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 6, 2013 /PRNewswire/ – Yelp Inc. (NYSE: YELP), the company that connects consumers with great local businesses, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2012.

    (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20050511/SFW134LOGO)

    • Net revenue was $41.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2012, reflecting 65% growth in net revenue from the fourth quarter of 2011
    • Cumulative reviews grew 45% year over year to more than 36 million at the end of 2012
    • Average monthly unique visitors grew 31% year over year to approximately 86 million*
    • Active local business accounts grew 68% year over year to approximately 39,800

    Net loss in the fourth quarter of 2012 was $5.3 million, or $0.08 per share, compared to a net loss of $9.1 million, or $0.56 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2011.  Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2012 was approximately $1.8 million, compared to an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $15,000 for the fourth quarter of 2011.

    Net revenue for the full year ended December 31, 2012 was $137.6 million, an increase of 65% compared to $83.3 million in the same period last year.  Net loss for the full year ended December 31, 2012 was $19.1 million, or $0.35 per share, compared to a net loss of $16.9 million, or $1.10 per share, for the comparable period in 2011. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2012 was approximately $4.6 million compared to an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.1 million for the prior year.

    “2012 was a tremendous year for Yelp,” said Jeremy Stoppelman, Yelp’s chief executive officer. “We completed a successful IPO, launched new products to improve the Yelp experience for consumers and business owners, expanded into new markets while increasing our presence in existing ones, and completed our first acquisition.  We believe 2013 will be a tipping point for our brand inEurope as Yelp continues to become a trusted local resource.  Our mobile strategy will remain a top priority as engagement increases, and we will continue to focus on the business owner, creating more ways to measure the value of Yelp leads.”

    “Yelp continued to deliver growth and scale in 2012 with both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA ahead of our expectations,” added Rob Krolik, Yelp’s chief financial officer.  “These results, along with our strong operating metrics, demonstrate that our playbook continues to deliver growth across Yelp markets.”

    2012 Business Highlights

    • New market expansion: Yelp continued to launch new markets globally, accelerated its presence in Germany and U.K with the acquisition of Qype and opened its first international sales office in London. In the fourth quarter Yelp launched Poland andTurkey, bringing the total number of worldwide Yelp countries to 20.
    • Yelp mobile:  Yelp focused on enhancing the mobile experience, including the launch of local ads on apps. In the fourth quarter, 25% of local ads were shown on mobile devices and the mobile app was used on approximately 9.2 million unique mobile devices on a monthly average basis.
    • Increased brand distribution: Yelp branded content was integrated into the new Apple ”Maps” application on iOS 6. Yelp also partnered with Bing to power their local business pages, and was incorporated into Mercedes and Lexus in-vehicle infotainment systems.
    • New products: Yelp introduced new features and enhancements throughout the year including dashboard metrics for business owners and a redesigned homepage placing a greater emphasis on the social graph and mobile activity. Yelp also introduced new products such as gift certificates and Yelp Menus.

    Business Outlook

    As of today, Yelp is providing guidance for the first quarter and full year of 2013.

    • For the first quarter of 2013, net revenue is expected to be in the range of $44.0 million – $44.5 million representing growth of approximately 62% compared to the first quarter of 2012. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1.25 million -$1.50 million.
    • For the full year of 2013, net revenue is expected to be in the range of $210 million – $212 million, representing growth of approximately 53% compared to the full year of 2012. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $20 million to $22 million.

    Quarterly Conference Call

    To access the call, please dial (866) 770-7120, or outside the U.S. (617) 213-8065, with Passcode 89233749, at least five minutes prior to the 1:30 p.m. PT start time.  A live webcast of the call will also be available at http://www.yelp-ir.com under the Events & Presentations menu.  An audio replay will be available between 3:30 p.m. PT February 6, 2013 and 11:59 p.m. PT February 20, 2013by calling (888) 286-8010 or (617) 801-6888, with Passcode 31161883. The replay will also be available on the Company’s website at http://www.yelp-ir.com.

    About Yelp

    Yelp Inc. (http://www.yelp.com) connects people with great local businesses. Yelp was founded in San Francisco in July 2004. Since then, Yelp communities have taken root in major metros across the US, Canada, UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Austria, The Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Singapore, Poland and Turkey. Yelp had a monthly average of approximately 86 million unique visitors in the fourth quarter 2012*. By the end of the same quarter, Yelpers had written more than 36 million rich, local reviews, making Yelp the leading local guide for real word-of-mouth on everything from boutiques and mechanics to restaurants and dentists. Yelp’s mobile applications were used on approximately 9.2 million unique mobile devices on a monthly average basis during the fourth quarter 2012.

    * Source: Google Analytics

    Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    This press release includes information relating to Adjusted EBITDA, which the Securities and Exchange Commission has defined as a “non-GAAP financial measure.” Adjusted EBITDA has been included in this press release because it is a key measure used by the Company’s management and board of directors to understand and evaluate core operating performance and trends, to prepare and approve its annual budget and to develop short- and long-term operational plans. The presentation of this financial information, which is not prepared under any comprehensive set of accounting rules or principles, is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

    Adjusted EBITDA has limitations as an analytical tool, and you should not consider it in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of the Company’s results as reported under GAAP. Some of these limitations are:

    • although depreciation and amortization are non-cash charges, the assets being depreciated and amortized may have to be replaced in the future, and adjusted EBITDA does not reflect cash capital expenditure requirements for such replacements or for new capital expenditure requirements;
    • adjusted EBITDA does not reflect changes in, or cash requirements for, the Company’s working capital needs;
    • adjusted EBITDA does not consider the potentially dilutive impact of equity-based compensation;
    • adjusted EBITDA does not reflect tax payments that may represent a reduction in cash available to us;
    • adjusted EBITDA does not consider any dilutive impact of our contribution to The Yelp Foundation;
    • adjusted EBITDA does not take into account any restructuring and integration costs associated with our acquisition of Qype;  and
    • other companies, including those in the Company’s industry, may calculate adjusted EBITDA differently, which reduces its usefulness as a comparative measure.

    Because of these limitations, you should consider adjusted EBITDA alongside other financial performance measures, including various cash flow metrics, net income (loss) and the Company’s other GAAP results. Additionally, the Company has not reconciled adjusted EBITDA guidance to net income (loss) guidance because it does not provide guidance for other income (expense) and provision for income taxes, which are reconciling items between net income (loss) and adjusted EBITDA. As items that impact net income (loss) are out of the Company’s control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted, the Company is unable to provide such guidance. Accordingly, reconciliation to net income (loss) outlook for the first quarter of and full year 2013 is not available without unreasonable effort.  For a reconciliation of historical non-GAAP financial measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures, see “Reconciliation of Net Loss to Adjusted EBITDA” included in this press release.

    Forward-Looking Statements

    This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to, among other things, the future performance of Yelp and its consolidated subsidiaries that are based on the Company’s current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding expected financial results for the first quarter and full year 2013, the future growth in Company revenue and continued investing by the Company in its future growth and the Company’s ability to build Yelp communities internationally and expand its markets and presence in existing markets. The Company’s actual results could differ materially from those predicted or implied and reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to: the Company’s short operating history in an evolving industry; the Company’s ability to generate sufficient revenue to achieve or maintain profitability, particularly in light of its significant ongoing sales and marketing expenses; the Company’s ability to successfully manage acquisitions of new businesses, solutions or technologies, including Qype; the Company’s reliance on traffic to its website from search engines like Google, Bing and Yahoo!; the Company’s ability to generate and maintain sufficient high quality content from its users; maintaining a strong brand and managing negative publicity that may arise; maintaining and expanding the Company’s base of advertisers; changes in political, business and economic conditions, including any European or general economic downturn or crisis and any conditions that affect ecommerce growth; fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates;  the Company’s ability to deal with the increasingly competitive local search environment; the Company’s need and ability to manage other regulatory, tax and litigation risks as its services are offered in more jurisdictions and applicable laws become more restrictive; the competitive and regulatory environment while the Company continues to expand geographically and introduce new products and as new laws and regulations related to Internet companies come into effect; and the Company’s ability to timely upgrade and develop its systems, infrastructure and customer service capabilities. The forward-looking statements in this release do not include the potential impact of any acquisitions or divestitures that may be announced and/or completed after the date hereof.

    More information about factors that could affect the Company’s operating results is included under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the Company’s most recent Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q at http://www.yelp-ir.com or the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements in this release, which are based on information available to the Company on the date hereof. Yelp assumes no obligation to update such statements. The results we report in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the twelve months ended December 31, 2012 could differ from the preliminary results we have announced in this press release.

    Media Contact Information
    Yelp Press Office
    Stephanie Ichinose
    (415) 908-3679
    [email protected]

    Investor Relations Contact Information
    The Blueshirt Group
    Stacie Bosinoff, Nicole Gunderson
    (415) 217-7722
    [email protected]

    Yelp Inc.
    Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
    (In thousands)
    (Unaudited)
    December 31, December 31,
    2012 2011
    Assets
    Current assets:
    Cash and cash equivalents $          95,124 $          21,736
    Accounts receivable, net 11,474 8,257
    Prepaid expenses and other current assets 4,912 1,733
    Total current assets 111,510 31,726
    Property, equipment and software, net 14,799 9,881
    Goodwill 48,735
    Intangibles, net 5,942
    Restricted cash 6,400 365
    Other assets 310 1,849
    Total assets $        187,696 $          43,821
    Liabilities, redeemable convertible preferred stock, and stockholders’ equity (deficit)
    Current liabilities:
    Accounts payable $            2,284 $            2,973
    Accrued liabilities 16,367 7,685
    Deferred revenue 2,856 2,072
    Total current liabilities 21,507 12,730
    Long-term liabilities 527 3
    Total liabilities 22,034 12,733
    Commitments and contingencies
    Redeemable preferred stock 55,435
    Stockholders’ equity (deficit)
    Common stock
    Additional paid-in capital 225,245 16,625
    Accumulated other comprehensive  income 805 271
    Accumulated deficit (60,388) (41,243)
    Total stockholders’ equity (deficit) 165,662 (24,347)
    Total liabilities, redeemable convertible preferred stock, and stockholders’ equity (deficit) $         187,696 $           43,821

     

    Yelp Inc.
    Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
    (In thousands, except per share amounts)
    (Unaudited)

     

    Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended
    December 31, December 31,
    2012 2011 2012 2011
    Net revenue $ 41,157 $ 24,905 $ 137,567 $  83,285
    Cost and expenses
    Cost of revenue (1) 3,003 1,833 9,928 5,931
    Sales and marketing (1) 25,511 16,024 85,915 54,539
    Product development (1) 6,244 3,162 20,473 11,586
    General and administrative (1) 7,852 5,267 31,531 17,234
    Depreciation and amortization 2,421 1,448 7,223 4,238
    Restructuring and integration costs 1,262 1,262
    Contribution to The Yelp Foundation 5,928 5,928
    Total cost and expenses 46,293 33,662 156,332 99,456
    Loss from operations (5,136) (8,757) (18,765) (16,171)
    Other expense, net (203) (252) (226) (395)
    Loss before provision for income taxes (5,339) (9,009) (18,991) (16,566)
    (Provision)/Benefit for income taxes 20 (37) (122) (102)
    Net loss (5,319) (9,046) (19,113) (16,668)
    Accretion of redeemable convertible preferred stock (48) (31) (189)
    Net loss attributable to common stockholders $ (5,319) $ (9,094) $ (19,144) $ (16,857)
    Net loss per share attributable to common stockholders:
    Basic $   (0.08) $   (0.56) $     (0.35) $     (1.10)
    Diluted $   (0.08) $   (0.56) $     (0.35) $     (1.10)
    Weighted-average shares used to compute net loss per share attributable to common stockholders:
    Basic 63,015 16,097 54,151 15,291
    Diluted 63,015 16,097 54,151 15,291
    (1) Includes stock-based compensation expense as follows:
    Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended
    December 31, December 31,
    2012 2011 2012 2011
    Cost of revenue $        38 $        17 $        122 $         50
    Sales and marketing 1,746 496 4,917 1,607
    Research and development 696 164 1,705 721
    General and administrative 778 689 8,134 2,499
    Total stock-based compensation $   3,258 $   1,366 $   14,878 $    4,877

     

    Yelp Inc.
    Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
    (In thousands)
    (Unaudited)
    Twelve Months Ended
    December 31,
    2012 2011
    Operating activities
    Net loss $ (19,113) $ (16,668)
     Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net

    cash (used in) provided by operating activities:

    Depreciation and amortization 7,223 4,238
    Provision for doubtful accounts 599 35
    Stock-based compensation 14,878 4,877
    Contribution to The Yelp Foundation 5,928
    Loss on disposal of assets and web-site development costs 64 13
    Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
    Accounts receivable (2,017) (1,682)
    Prepaid expenses and other assets (2,384) (1,099)
    Accounts payable and accrued expenses 70 3,975
    Deferred revenue (443) 633
    Net cash (used in) provided by operating activities (1,123) 250
    Investing activities
    Acquisition of Qype GmbH, net of cash received (24,125)
    Purchases of property, equipment and software (7,524) (4,798)
    Capitalized website and software development costs (2,930) (2,506)
    Change in restricted cash (6,013) (149)
    Cash used in investing activities (40,592) (7,453)
    Financing activities
    Proceeds from initial public offering, net of underwriter fees 114,006
    Payments for deferred offering costs (1,749) (456)
    Proceeds from issuance of common stock 3,675 2,038
    Repayment of acquired debt (1,308)
    Net cash provided by financing activities 114,624 1,582
    Effect of exchange rate changes on cash 479 283
    Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 73,388 (5,338)
    Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 21,736 27,074
    Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $95,124 $21,736

     

    Yelp Inc.
    Reconciliation of Net Loss to Adjusted EBITDA
    (In thousands)
    (Unaudited)
    Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended
    December 31, December 31,
    2012 2011 2012 2011
    Net loss $ (5,319) $ (9,046) $ (19,113) $ (16,668)
    Provision for income taxes (20) 37 122 102
    Other income (expense), net 203 252 226 395
    Depreciation and amortization 2,421 1,448 7,223 4,238
    Stock-based compensation 3,258 1,366 14,878 4,877
    Restructuring and integration costs 1,262 1,262
    Contribution to Yelp Foundation 5,928 5,928
    Adjusted EBITDA $  1,805 $      (15) $    4,598 $   (1,128)

     

    SOURCE Yelp Inc.

  • U.S. Smartphone Market Slowly Turning Into The Apple/Samsung Show

    Samsung has effectively taken control of the Android smartphone market by becoming the most successful Android OEM in the world. That’s particularly true in the U.S. where its marketshare continues to grow. In fact, the latest comScore numbers show that the U.S. is no longer an iOS vs. Android market, but rather a Samsung vs. Apple market.

    December’s smartphone market statistics came out of comScore Wednesday, and the results show the U.S. market warping into a battle between the giants of mobile where there’s increasingly no room for the little guys. In fact, besides an anomaly from LG, every major smartphone manufacturer’s market share declined except for Apple and Samsung.

    It should come as no surprise that Apple was the top smartphone maker in December. The company commanded a 36.3 percent share of the 125.9 million smartphones in use in the U.S. Its great adversary, Samsung, is catching up, however, as its share increased to 21 percent from 18.7 percent in September. HTC and Motorola both saw declines, while LG saw a small increase to 7.1 percent. LG’s growth is probably due to the relative success of the Nexus 4.

    U.S. Smartphone Market Slowly Turning Into The Apple/Samsung Show

    As for smartphone platforms, Android reigns with a 53.4 percent majority of the smartphone market. It may have a majority, but it also little growth as its control only grew by 0.9 percent. In comparison, iOS grew 2 percent from September to December to have 36.3 percent of the market. BlackBerry and Microsoft both saw declines while Symbian stayed flat.

    U.S. Smartphone Market Apple Samsung

    The U.S. smartphone market is slowly becoming the battleground for Apple and Samsung as other smartphone manufacturers continue to lose more marketshare to these behemoths. I wouldn’t be surprised if consumers started associated Samsung with Android as one in the same instead of two separate entities.

  • Assassin’s Creed III Action Figures Will Come With DLC Codes

    McFarlane Toys this week announced that it is partnering with Ubisoft to release Assassin’s Creed III-branded figurines.

    The first set of the collectibles will include seven different figures, including Connor, Haytham Kenway. Two different Connor figures are being made, one with the character in the traditional assassin cloaks and one with the character in his Ratonhnhaké:ton outfit from the upcoming “The Tyranny of King Washington” DLC add-on.

    There is no date set for when the figures will be released, but the prototypes for the items will be on display at the International Toy Fair next week. The toys will be be around six inches tall and will have “an average of 25 points of articulation.” They will cost $15 to $16 and will be found at most toy retailers throughout North America, South America, and Australia.

    The figures will also come with a code that provides “exclusive” Assassin’s Creed video game content, such as weapons and character outfits.

    “We’re always looking to raise the bar with our figures, and Ubisoft has been a great partner to help make that happen,” said Todd McFarlane, CEO of McFarlane Toys. “These will be the first McFarlane Toys to include integration with the game itself. Our Assassin’s Creed figures will include codes that unlock unique content in game – things like new weapons, clothing colors, or other customization options. Features like this reward the hardcore fans who buy the figures, and give collectors some added value.”

  • Apple Patents Image Identification Unlocking Method For iPhones And Macs

    Apple buys AuthenTec

    Apple had a new patent application published by the USPTO today, describing an unlocking method for digital devices that uses image identification to properly recognize an authorized user. The system would present a user with photographs from their iPhoto or iCloud collections, and then ask them to identify who or what the subject is in order to unlock the device. The item in question could also be an object or series of images.

    The authentication process would work by displaying at least one image to be identified from the user’s library, though it could also display a number in succession if users are looking for more security. It’s highly likely that someone close to you will recognize another individual depicted in photos on your phone, for instance, but if you’re worried about granting access even to that inner circle of acquaintances, it becomes increasingly unlikely they’ll be able to identify each of a series of more than one picture.

    Different means of input are also described in the patent, from a multiple selection list of choices for one-tap entry, to using an on-screen (on an iOS device) or physical keyboard (on a Mac) to type in the exact answer, to just speaking the name of the person or object aloud. Combined with voice recognition, you can see how the third option would provide yet another layer of added, personalized security, which would be very hard to beat via conventional machine-based security workaround tools.

    If the system uses objects instead of people, the patent describes a process by which users would offer up unique, alternative nicknames for recognizable monuments and landmarks. So, for example, a picture of the Eiffel Tower could actually be linked to the phrase “The Big Stick.” Since no one else is likely to use quite the same idiosyncratic alternate names for highly recognizable objects, the system should remain fairly secure.

    In most cases, Apple’s current passcode unlock system is probably sufficient for the needs of users, but should the company want to meet the needs of privacy sensitive users, a method like this that’s highly personal and hard to hack could be of considerable benefit.

  • FreedomPop lets customers share their bandwidth; raises another $4.3M

    FreedomPop on Thursday launched its promised data sharing program, allowing its customers to share or trade megabytes like a broadband currency. The mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) also revealed it has gone back to its investors for a another $4.3 million infusion, which FreedomPop COO Steven Sesar said would carry it through the rest of its beta trials before it launches nationwide later next year.

    Sesar said you can think of the broadband sharing feature like a “family plan on crack.” Instead of sharing your pool of monthly megabytes or gigabytes with just the wife and kids, though, FreedomPop customers can request bandwidth from or award bandwidth to any other customer using FreedomPops’s social networking tools.

    The broadband sharing program is the latest twist in FreedomPop’s distinctly anti-carrier approach to mobile data. As we’ve written before, FreedomPop doesn’t see much value in selling consumers data plans. Instead it wants to sell them services over what it considers a commodity pipe – it wants to be the water-slide amusement park, not the water utility.

    FreedomPop social broadband

    Consequently FreedomPop is offering any customer who buys one of its modems 500 MB free of charge each month (though it sells bigger-bucket plans for a monthly fee) and allows them to “earn” more free data by referring new customers, participating in promotional programs and become entrenched in the FreedomPop social community. The more active customers become in the FreedomPop community the more free data they accrue and therefore the more likely they are to remain customers.

    Under the current rules there are limits to how much data individual customers can earn or trade. But the company is gradually relaxing those rules, Sesar said. For instance, it is upping the amount of free data customers get from becoming friends with another Freedom customer from 10 MB to 50 MB each month. There is now an overall cap of 500 MB on free data customers can earn beyond their guaranteed monthly 500 MB allotment, but Sesar said the virtual carrier plans to boost the cap in the coming months and eventually eliminate entirely.

    “Ultimately the goal is to allow you to earn, exchange and share data as much as you want,” Sesar said. “Right now we’re still testing the waters, making sure customers don’t game the system.”

    FreedomPop plans to launch its own voice and text messaging plans next month in partnership with TextPlus. It will also expand into the home with a new wireless broadband gateway that taps into the same Clearwire WiMAX network used by its mobile service. Later this year it will begin selling its first LTE devices, switching to Sprint as its primary provider.

    One of FreedomPop’s most attention-grabbing plans, however, is on hold. The company intended to launch a sleeve modem that fit over the iPhone 4 and 4S shortly after launch, but the device has been held up by U.S. regulators for testing. That’s left many perspective FreedomPop customers who pre-ordered the device in the lurch.

    Last month, FreedomPop said it hoped that the device would be cleared for shipment this month, but this week Sesar said there was still no update on when or if it would be released. He added that if the modem was delayed too much longer, FreedomPop may just move on, refocusing its strategy on other devices.

    FreedomPop was founded in 2011 with the backing of Skype founder Niklas Zennstom, and since then has raised $11.2 million in funding. The company is calling the $4.1 million a series A1 round, since it includes only existing investors DCM and Mangrove Capital.

    Sesar said the cash would allow FreedomPop plenty of leeway to tinker with its strategy, services and plans while in beta. But later this year, Sesar said, it plans to put together a proper series B round to launch a fully commercial service nationwide and move beyond viral marketing to attract a larger customer base.

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  • New York Times posts ho-hum numbers, slow digital growth

    The New York Times Company posted earnings on Thursday morning that show the company’s ongoing struggle to create significant growth in its digital operations. While circulation revenues continue to rise, all forms of advertising are in decline and overall revenue is shrinking.

    The company posted earnings per share of 32 cents (excluding special items) which is about what analysts predicted. Compared to the same 13-week period from a year ago, total revenues decreased 0.7 percent, with advertising revenues down 8.3 percent and circulation revenues up 8.6 percent.

    The circulation revenues should, in theory, be a bright spot for the Times but it’s not possible to tell how much of that 8.6 percent comes from new digital revenue and how much from an increase in the price of the print edition (the Times doesn’t break out these numbers).

    The company now has about 640,000 digital subscribers to the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune, which is a 13-percent increase from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the Boston Globe now has 28,000 subscribers to its various digital editions which is an eight-percent increase.

    The bottom line here is that this the same old story for the New York Times company: it is shedding revenue, assets and longtime staff faster than it can build up a new digital business.

    An earnings call later today will feature the company’s new CEO, the BBC-transplant Mark Thompson who may offer some guidance to where the company is going. We will post highlights from the call in the early afternoon.

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  • Lucy Lawless Sentenced To 120 Hours Community Service

    Lucy Lawless, who rose to stardom playing Xena the Warrior Princess, has been sentenced to 120 hours of community service stemming from her staged protest on an oil-drilling ship last summer.

    Lawless and several other protestors set up camp on the ship last June to voice their anger at Shell Todd Oil Services for making oil explorations in the Arctic. They stayed for four days before being arrested for trespassing, and Lawless faced up to three years in jail time. Luckily for her, she and the other protesters were given the community service order and must pay a fine of about $550.

    The actress says she doesn’t mind the sentence at all and was happy to have brought the actions of the oil company to the attention of others. She’s also happy the judge dismissed the company’s demand for reparations–which totaled around $550,000–and called them “ludicrous”. The reparations were brought up in court because the company’s expedition was delayed by the protest.

    Still, Lawless has said this won’t stop her from activism.

    “This chapter has ended, but the story of the battle to save the Arctic has just begun. Seven of us climbed up that drill ship to stop Arctic drilling, but 133,000 of us came down,” she said. “We will continue to stand in solidarity with the communities and species that depend on the Arctic for their lives until Shell cancels its plans to drill in this magical world, and makes the switch to clean, sustainable energy.”

  • Mother Nature Doesn’t Do Bailouts

    Just because Congress — and global climate summits — can’t seem to prepare for climate change, doesn’t mean the private sector can get away with the same. Mother Nature doesn’t do bailouts.

    The danger signs are clear. Yet for years, climate change has been off limits for federal policymakers, who have been rendered nearly catatonic over the unproven idea that dealing with climate change or any environmental problem would be too costly for a delicate economy. On the contrary, tackling climate change is an investment that pays off economically as well as socially. A report from Deutsche Bank showed in 2010 that a portfolio with an overweight to climate solutions would have outperformed a benchmark portfolio over the previous 5 years, indicating that climate as an investment was “not merely an investment sector that may hold future promise; it is a sector that has already delivered and is continuing to deliver.”

    Moreover, not fixing the problem is quite likely to cost considerably more than addressing it. Particularly now, while there is still time for us to avert even greater damage. Companies that emit a lot of greenhouse gases should know that at some point the burgeoning impacts of climate change will prompt government to act, either at the federal or state level, or both. This leaves business leaders with two options: wait for whatever the government does and react, or pro-actively plan for a carbon-constrained future.

    And any company can be subject to the physical impacts of climate change, whether or not they are big emitters. Munich Re reports that natural disasters in 2011 caused insurance companies to substantially spend down cash reserves, with payouts exceeding premiums in the US by 16%. Continuing the trend toward more and costlier climate-related disasters will have the inevitable result that it always has: insurance companies will either raise premiums or exit particularly risky markets, as has happened before with flood insurance in places that are increasingly susceptible to storm surges. Only months after Congress tried to put the federal flood insurance program on sound fiscal feet, there is a real possibility that the program will need to seek additional funds in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Even if additional funds are appropriated, it is widely expected that premiums will have to rise in order to keep the program viable.

    Insurance aside, storms (and other severe weather) can have immediate impacts on corporate bottom lines, as well as longer-term impacts on reputational value. For instance, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley has recommended that the state’s Department of Public Utilities issue a $16 million fine to National Grid for its response to power outages during Hurricane Irene in August 2011 and a snowstorm two months later. With the possibility of new fines for outages and lack of prompt response during Hurricane Sandy, the company faces a significant lack of confidence on the part of some of its customers — something no company wants to have.

    Droughts and floods also enter the risk picture for any company dependent on an agricultural supply chain. Pepsico, for instance, recently developed its sustainable agriculture program at least partly in response to the challenges of climate change. Every board of every company should be asking itself: “Are we prepared for climate change? What risks does it pose for this company?” Pepsico has thought through at least some of that. Yet for many companies, the only form of climate risk acknowledged in the annual report is regulatory risk.

    No company is immune to the risks related to the physical manifestations of climate change. The problem is only becoming more pressing. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters’s website shows a generally rising trend in terms of number of extreme weather events between 1980 and 2011 in the United States. Severe storms and tropical cyclones accounted for over 55% of these events, and nearly 60% of the inflation-adjusted damages. Elsewhere in the world the status quo is just as sobering; the Association of British Insurers (ABI), for example, estimated the financial impacts of climate change by looking under some very specific lampposts: inland floods in Great Britain induced by precipitation, winter windstorms in the UK, and typhoons in China. ABI concluded that insured flood losses on 100-year storms in Great Britain could rise by 30%, and insured losses resulting from typhoons in China could rise by 32% as a result of climate change.

    Remember: Mother Nature doesn’t do bailouts. And political stalemate is not an excuse for private sector inaction.

  • GetGlue updates iPhone app, gets ready to integrate Hulu and other web content

    Social TV startup GetGlue rolled out an update of its iPhone app Thursday, adding a programming guide, show feeds and the ability to chat with Facebook friends about a show. Also in the works is a partnership with Hulu, which serves as a good reminder on how much the TV space is changing.

    The iPhone app brings many of the features previously rolled out on the iPad and the web to the mobile phone. This includes a new program guide as well as an activity feed that pulls in content from throughout the web, as well as specific feeds for individual shows.

    GetGlue's new iPhone app taks conversations about shows to Facebook.

    GetGlue’s new iPhone app taks conversations about shows to Facebook.

    Also interesting: GetGlue’s new iPhone app uses Facebook likes to determine which of your friends watch the shows you are into, and then offers you the ability to tag them in a Facebook post about the show, essentially extending the conversation beyond the core of GetGlue’s four million registered users. GetGlue founder and CEO Alex Iskold told me Wednesday that he hopes to relaunch the Android app with the same feature set in the next four to six weeks.

    But wait, there’s more: GetGlue is currently working on a multi-faceted partnership with Hulu. There is going to be some promotional element that will give GetGlue users the ability to earn a month-long free trial of Hulu Plus, but more interesting is that GetGlue is committed to index all of Hulu’s original content, including shows like Battleground and the Awesomes. “We are not about linear TV. We are about what to watch,” Iskold told me.

    That’s a reflection of how the world of TV is changing: There used to be a clear line between the short-form content posted on YouTube and the professionally-produced shows that air on TV, and possibly find their way online afterwards for catch-up viewing. But with companies like Netflix and Hulu pouring millions into the production of original content, that line is becoming increasingly blurry.

    The most striking example for this was the launch of House Of Cards on Netflix, but Hulu and YouTube have increased their commitment to professional content as well. It only makes sense for GetGlue to surface that content through their app.

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  • In Q4 Android phones drove more mobile ad impressions than iPhone for 1st time ever

    In the world of mobile advertising, Android phones reached a significant milestone during the fourth quarter of 2012: they drove more mobile advertising impressions than iPhones during a quarter, for the first time ever. That’s according to a report published Thursday morning by Opera Mediaworks, the mobile ad tracking arm of Opera Mobile. Still, the findings show that highest volume still isn’t translating to the highest value for advertisers.

    Android phones represented 31 percent of the more than 500 million mobile ad impressions tracked by Opera between October and December across more than 12,000 mobile websites and apps. iPhones, meanwhile, had a 29 percent share of those impressions. Major reasons for Android taking the lead include: the popularity of Android devices in markets where users are more likely to access the internet on a mobile device – like Indonesia and Russian Federation countries, which saw double-digit gains in ad impressions during the quarter — and Samsung’s rapidly growing popularity among smartphone buyers in the U.S.

    “In the U.S. we think that this is considerably helped by the emergence of Samsung and the Galaxy S III,” Mahi De Silva, EVP of Opera’s consumer mobile division, said in an interview. “They’re pouring a lot of dollars into the market, and they have favorable pricing with mobile operators, so that entire market has a lot of momentum [toward] adoption of Samsung Android devices.”

    Earlier this week we reported that Apple just barely outsold Samsung in the U.S. mobile phone sales during the fourth quarter, but Samsung sold nearly 7 million more devices during all of 2012, according to Strategy Analytics.

    Opera Mobile Q4 ad impressions

    Source: Opera Media Works

    iPhones are just one piece of the pie, however. When counting iOS’s overall impact, including mobile ads seen on iPod touches and iPads, Opera found that Apple’s devices still represent the largest overall number of impressions, about 42 percent.

    And where it really counts — producing revenue for mobile advertisers — iOS is still comfortably in the lead.

    “Even though you saw that for the first time Android phones have a larger volume of impressions, the dollars associated is still considerably in favor of Apple and iOS and iPhones,” De Silva said.

    iPhones are responsible for 37 percent of the revenue made by mobile advertisers, versus about 30 percent from Android; and just over half of all revenues in the quarter came from some type of iOS device. So in terms of the ability to monetize, De Silva says iOS is still the more attractive platform for advertisers.

    Android has a ways to go to catch up in revenue. And even though the platform is only going to grow and add more users, it’s not clear the monetization will catch up nearly as fast, he said. “The trend, as we’ve seen in the past, is iPhone continues to be the most monetization-friendly platform out there.”

     

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  • ComScore: Windows Phone lost US market share in holiday quarter

    Apparently, there were many more iPhones and Android handsets under the Christmas tree in 2012, which isn’t a holiday gift for the other smartphone platforms. On Thursday, ComScore released its smartphone subscriber share numbers for the U.S. and in the last quarter of the year, iOS and Android phones continued to rise over the prior quarter. Unfortunately for Microsoft, it got a lump of coal.

    I’m not surprised by the growth in iOS and Android devices; combined these two accounted for 89.7 percent of U.S. smartphones used in the quarter, per ComScore’s research. What is surprising, not to mention disappointing, is Microsoft’s decline from the prior three-month period. BlackBerry’s share fell also, but that was to be expected: The company’s new BlackBerry 10 devices are only just now becoming available.

    ComScore smartphone subs in 2012Q4

    Although it didn’t have a full quarter to work with — Windows Phone 8 devices launched in early November — Microsoft actually introduced the new operating system in the last quarter of 2012 and Nokia, arguably Microsoft’s most important smartphone partner, debuted a line of new Lumia phones during the same period.

    I subscribe to the “smartphone race is a marathon, not a sprint” theory, but when the gun goes off, you need to jump from the starting line. That didn’t appear to happen last quarter; at least not in the U.S.

    For its part, Nokia said it moved 4.4 million Lumia handsets in the final quarter of 2012. I don’t doubt that figure. However, even with competitive pricing that puts a Lumia in your pocket for less than the cost of an iPhone 5 or comparable Android device, the percent of Lumia’s sold is surely a small bit of that 4.4 million sales figure. With fewer Windows Phone models from HTC, Samsung and others, this may be a case of “as Nokia goes in the U.S. smartphone market, so too does Microsoft.”

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  • Facebook’s Friendship Pages Hit Mobile, Coming to Apps Soon

    Facebook has begun to roll out their “Friendship Pages” on the mobile web, and they should be appearing on Facebook’s native apps soon.

    Friendship pages allow you to view your history with any other user, including your mutual likes, photos you’re tagged in together, posts you’ve exchanged, mutual friends, and more. Facebook debuted Friendship Pages back in 2010, but gave them a major update in November 2012 that brought them firmly into the Timeline era.

    Starting now, users will begin to see the option to access Friendship Pages roll out on m.facebook.com.

    Facebook confirmed that the new Timeline-inspired Friendship Pages will be rolling out to the iOS and Android apps “in the coming months.”

    On the mobile site there are a handful of places where you’ll see a link to Friendship Pages. Those include news feed stories about Timeline posts and Gifts, any Timeline posts between you and the friend, and life events. You can also access a Friendship Page via a menu on the specific friend’s Timeline.

    As of now, the mobile Friendship Pages do not allow for customization of live events or cover photos.

    [via Inside Facebook]

  • Sprint also has a big smartphone Q4 as Nextel customer losses mount

    The holiday smartphone boost enjoyed by AT&T and Verizon was replicated at Sprint. In the fourth quarter, the country’s third largest mobile operator sold 6.1 million smartphones, 2.1 million of which were iPhones. But Sprint is also still feeling the pain of departing Nextel and Boost Mobile customers as it prepares to shut down its iDEN network completely in the second quarter.

    Sprint lost 644,000 Nextel contract customers and 376,000 Boost customers, though Sprint was able to lure 521,000 of those departing subscribers over to its CDMA network. There are now 2.1 million iDEN customers remaining, which means Sprint has a rocky two quarters ahead before the network goes offline completely.

    On the CDMA side of the house, Sprint added a net 401,000 contract customers and 525,000 prepaid customers, but the Nextel exodus still resulted in a net loss of 400,000 customers. Sprint now has a total 55.6 million mobile connections.

    Sprint activated 2.2 million iPhones (as opposed to sales), which is just a quarter of the volume done by dominant iPhone distributor AT&T, but Sprint was able to use the device to lure in more customers. Of the 6.6 million iPhones sold in 2012, Sprint estimated that 40 percent were new customers, meaning Sprint isn’t just upgrading its existing subscribers to the iPhone. The carrier also said that it sold more Samsung Galaxy S III phones than any other carrier.

    Sprint reported a loss of $1.32 billion in the fourth quarter off of revenues of $9 billion.

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  • Energy Investors Funds Partners with Midstream Capital Partners

    Energy Investors Funds and Midstream Capital Partners have partnered to identify and develop investment opportunities in the energy midstream space in the United States, the firms announced Wednesday. Financial terms were not disclosed. The firms will initially focus on natural gas gathering systems.

    PRESS RELEASE
    Energy Investors Funds (“EIF”) announced today it has formed an exclusive partnership with Midstream Capital Partners, LLC (“MCP”). The primary focus of the partnership will be to identify and develop investment opportunities in the energy midstream space in the United States, with an initial focus on natural gas gathering systems. Financial terms of the partnership were not disclosed.

    Midstream Capital Partners was formed by Lou Pai, Richard Kieval and Dale Miller, each of whom has decades of experience in the natural gas infrastructure space. Through the partnership, MCP will work with EIF to identify midstream investments through partnerships, acquisitions and greenfield development.

    “We’re excited to announce this partnership with MCP, which we believe has some of the brightest minds in the midstream space,” said Terence Darby, Managing Partner at EIF. “With the shale boom that is currently underway in the United States, we believe there will be numerous opportunities to invest in the physical infrastructure used to transport natural gas.”

    “We see this partnership with EIF as a validation of our business model and the high level of opportunity in the midstream space,” said Lou Pai, Managing Partner at Midstream Capital Partners. “We’ve known EIF for many years and believe their investment model and executive team to be one of the best in the industry.”

    About Energy Investors Funds
    EIF was founded in 1987 as one of the first private equity fund managers dedicated exclusively to the independent power and electric utility industry. Its consistent, proven investment strategy is to create geographically and technologically diversified portfolios of electric power-related assets that provide superior risk-adjusted equity returns with current cash flow and capital appreciation. EIF has raised over $5 billion in equity capital and currently manages multiple private equity funds from its offices in Boston, New York, and San Francisco. These funds have made over 100 diversified investments with an underlying asset value greater than $15 billion. EIF-managed funds own approximately 4,000 MW of capacity in facilities that are currently operating or under construction and an additional 6,000 MW in facilities that are in various stages of development. EIF closed on its latest fund, EIF United States Power Fund IV, L.P., in October 2011, with $1.713 billion in capital commitments.

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  • Google And Yahoo Are Now Working Together On Ads

    Yahoo and Google are now working together on ads. Yahoo announced in a post on its corporate blog that it has teamed up with the search giant on contextual advertising.

    The two companies have signed a global, non-exclusive agreement for Yahoo to display contextual display ads from Google on various Yahoo properties and “certain co-branded sites” using Google’s AdSense for Content and AdMob advertising offerings.

    “By adding Google to our list of world-class contextual ads partners, we’ll be able to expand our network, which means we can serve users with ads that are even more meaningful,” says Yahoo in the post. “For our users, there won’t be a noticeable difference in how or where ads appear. More options simply mean greater flexibility. We look forward to working with all of our contextual ads partners to ensure we’re delivering the right ad to the right user at the right time.”

    It wasn’t that long ago that Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt expressed interest in partnering with Yahoo, years after the companies tried to partner on a search advertising deal, which was shut down by regulators. Yahoo ended up partnering with BIng in that space, and so far, this new announcement will do nothing to change that.

    Again, this is a non-exclusive agreement, and Yahoo is still partners with Microsoft (in addition to others) in this area too.

    “Every day, people turn to Yahoo! for their daily habits — like search, weather, news or more. At Yahoo!, we’re focused on doing everything we can to make the user experience inspiring and engaging. One way we do that is by providing relevant and well-targeted content — whether that be editorial or advertising content,” says Yahoo. “Say you’ve been shopping for boots. If you see an ad for boots, that’s instantly going to pique your attention more than an ad for, say, a car battery. That’s better for users. This is why contextual advertising is such a powerful tool.”

    According to the company, users won’t see much of a noticeable difference in how and where ads appear.

    While this isn’t the huge news that an exclusive Google/Yahoo search advertising deal would be, it’s very interesting to see the companies working together, especially considering the rivalry between Microsoft and Google. It’s also interesting given the fact that Yahoo is now run by longtime Googler Marissa Mayer, who has brought other Googlers along for the ride at Yahoo. Will this relationship blossom into something more between Yahoo and Google? Time will tell.

  • Nanny Caught On Camera Slapping, Shaking 5-Month Old

    A nanny in Staten Island has been arrested after a surveillance video captured her hitting and shaking a 5-month old because the child refused to eat.

    The woman, 52-year old Mamura Nasirova, had displayed questionable behavior before in front of the child’s parents, so they decided to install a camera inside a carbon monoxide detector, which was on a live feed viewable to them while they were at work.

    “I seen her one time, she just dragged them along. I said, ‘Don’t drag them like that.’ She said, ‘They don’t listen, you have to let them know who the boss is,’” neighbor Margaret Meekins said.

    Nasirova was also in charge of the baby’s 17-month old brother, who was not harmed at the time, but the baby girl suffered redness and swelling where she was hit. The nanny has been charged with endangering a child and resisting arrest and is in jail on a $1,000 bond.

  • SAFE Security Buys Accounts from Pinnacle Security

    SAFE Security, a company backed by ICV Partners, has acquired 24,000 security alarm monitoring subscriber accounts from Utah-based Pinnacle Security. Terms were not disclosed.

    PRESS RELEASE
    ICV Partners, a leading investment firm focused on lower middle market companies, announced today that its portfolio company SAFE Security has acquired approximately 24,000 security alarm monitoring subscriber accounts from Utah-based Pinnacle Security. The newly acquired accounts represent $1.1 million of Recurring Monthly Revenue.

    “This is an exciting and important addition to SAFE’s portfolio,” said Paul Sargenti, SAFE’s President and CEO who founded the company in 1988. “The transaction fits very nicely into our national footprint. The acquisition, in conjunction with SAFE’s robust dealer program, provides cash flow to optimize and execute SAFE’s growth strategy.”

    Cory D. Mims, a Managing Director of ICV, said, “We have been working closely with SAFE Security’s founder and CEO Paul Sargenti and his management team to build on the company’s historically strong record of performance. A part of that includes supporting SAFE Security with the capital necessary to back management’s vision for growth. These new accounts add significant revenue to the company and we continue to review high quality acquisition targets.” ICV acquired SAFE Security in 2012.

    About SAFE Security
    SAFE Security® ranks among the largest security alarm companies in the United States, with operations in 44 states. SAFE Security (Security Alarm Financing Enterprise, L.P.), headquartered in San Ramon, CA is one of the nation’s leading security alarm companies engaged in the business of purchasing, financing and servicing residential and commercial security alarm monitoring contracts. SAFE Security actively markets and installs alarm systems and monitoring to homeowners across the nation in addition to growing a robust dealer account acquisition program. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.safesecurity.com.

    About ICV Partners
    Founded in 1998, ICV Partners is a leading private investment firm that supports management leaders of strong companies at the lower end of the middle market. The principals of ICV have crafted a strong track record of helping companies improve performance over the long term and across a variety of industries. ICV seeks to make control investments in market leading businesses with $25 million to $250 million in revenue. Additional information is available at www.icvpartners.com.

    ###

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  • CVC Credit Partners Adds Mark DeNatale, Scott Bynum

    Mark DeNatale and Scott Bynum have joined CVC Credit Partners, the firm announced. DeNatale joins the firm’s operating board as a partner and will be a senior portfolio manager and global head of trading. Bynum joins as a managing director and portfolio manager.

    PRESS RELEASE
    CVC Credit Partners (“CVC Credit”) today announced that Mark DeNatale and Scott Bynum have joined the firm. Mark joins the Firm’s Operating Board as a Partner and will be a Senior Portfolio Manager and Global Head of Trading. Scott joins as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager.

    Mark DeNatale spent 17 years at Goldman Sachs where he was a Managing Director and Head of Loan Trading, managing risk across distressed, stressed and performing credit. Mark actively invested and traded across the capital structure including loans, bonds, equities and derivatives; he was also instrumental in developing a European loan trading platform. Mark is a former member of the Board of Directors of the LSTA and is a graduate of Boston College.

    Scott Bynum spent 7 years at Goldman Sachs where he was a Vice President in the Bank Loan Distressed Investing business. In that capacity, Scott managed research coverage for a variety of sectors and led investments across the capital structure in both public and private companies. Scott also led the hedging effort for the investing portfolio consisting of loans, bonds, equities, derivatives, trade claims, and private financings. Scott graduated magna cum laude from Princeton University with a degree in engineering.

    Commenting on these appointments, Steve Hickey, Partner and Chief Risk Officer, said: “I am delighted to be working with both Mark and Scott again. Mark has a truly global perspective and brings extensive management experience as well as sourcing, investing and trading expertise to our growing platform. Scott is rejoining his former colleagues and will add valuable sourcing and investment experience across the credit spectrum. I look forward to working with them as we expand the product offerings at CVC Credit Partners.”

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  • What happens when Lego meets Android?

    Nothing says geek quite like Lego. Come on — you know you secretly still love those tiny multi-colored bricks from your youth. Except now they are not just bricks, and the simple projects of our youth have become the incredibly complex projects of our children’s youth…that we still love to “help out” with.

    Lego Cuusoo is a “Labs” type of project where customers can suggest future kits and if the item gets at least 10,000 supporters then Lego pledges to consider producing it. And now the company is faced with an Android project that easily passed that requirement yesterday evening.

    “Bugdroid” was created by GLHTurbo using “205 pieces of (mostly) Lime Green bricks. Using the approximate price per brick of $0.15 puts this kit around $30”. He also claims the design is “not 100 percent finalized”.

    This is not just a statue either — the little figure can move. It has 360 degrees of head rotation and both arms have the same range of motion. The antennae can also move across a variety of positions.

    The project hit 1,714 supporters within the first 24 hours and surpassed the required 10,000 supporters yesterday. The support button is now grayed out as the projects on Lego Cuusoo close when the goal is reached. We can only wait and see if the company responds with a pre-made kit for the child in all of us.

    Photo credit: GLHTurbo

  • Weekly Radar: Currency warriors meet in Moscow

    G20/EUROGROUP/EURO Q4 GDP/STATE OF THE UNION/BOJ/UST, GILT AND ITALY BOND AUCTIONS/EUROPEAN EARNINGS

    Hiccup. February has so far certainly brought a more sober, if healthier, perspective to world markets. Global stocks are off about half a percent this week, letting the air out gently from January’s over-inflated 5 percent surge. The focus is back on Europe, where the threat of a euro FX overshoot (in the face of LTRO paybacks and rising euro interest rates alongside stepped-up “global currency wars”) has fused with a plethora of unresolved national debt conundrums and a stream of ‘event risks’ on the region’s calendar. Euro stocks have retreated to December levels as the currency move and fresh political angst has taken the wind out of earnings and growth projections after such a steep rally over the past six months. Name anything you want – the tightening race for this month’s Italian elections and Monte di Paschi scnadal there, a delayed Cyprus bailout and elections there this month, the Irish promissory note standoff with the ECB etc etc – when things turn, they all these get amplified again even if none really are likely to be systemic threats in the way we’d become used to over the past two years. The slight backup in Italian/Spanish yields to December levels shows sentiment turns still pack a punch, the European earnings season has been mixed so far, there are political murmurs about capping the euro and the political calendar over the next six weeks is a bit of a minefield for nervy markets. All the issues still look resolvable – the tricky Irish bank debt rejig looks on the verge of a resolution; few still believe Berlusconi be the next Italian PM (only 5 percent on betting website Intrade think so, for example); and Cyprus is expected by most to get bailed out eventually. Today’s ECB will be critical to most of those issues, but next week’s euro group gets a chance to update everyone on its role in them aswell). The issue likely to gnaw deepest at investors is the regional growth outlook  and,  in that respect, the euro surge is about as welcome as a kick in the teeth at this juncture. (Euro Q4 GDPs out next week). The French clearly want to rein in the currency but don’t have the tools or the German backing. Draghi and the ECB will likely have to come to rescue again, though he will not admit to euro targeting and so may drag his feet on this one until the move starts to burn. Interesting times ahead and interesting G20 finance meeting in Moscow next week as a result.

    To keep this week’s market wobble  in Europe in perspective, however Wall St still continues to hover close to record highs as the Q4 GDP shock was probably correctly dismissed as a red herring; Japan’s TOPIX is now up 35% in three months (well, about 15% in euro terms), and Shanghai is up 18% in just two months. It’s curious to note that Shanghai was the top pick of the year when Reuters polled global forecasters in December and average gains for the whole of 2013 were expected to be… 17 percent. So, stick with the growth and the currency printing regions for now it seems – even if you do get whacked on the exchange rate.

    So while a market pause at least has been well warranted, the big 2013 theme of a long-term investor retreat from core debt and re-allocation toward  equity will likely prevent major corrections as long as the underlying global growth story – modest as it is – holds up and builds some steam. ANd that is a long-term story and won’t be decided over a week or even a few months. US Treasury auctions next week may be the ones to watch in that regard.

                       

    GLOBAL DATA/EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK:

    UK/Swiss January inflation Mon

    Euro group Mon

    Indonesia rate decision Tues

    Europe Q4 earnings Tues: ThyssenKrupp, Barclays, Glencore etc

    ECOFIN meeting Tues

    EZ Dec industrial production Tues

    Swedish rate decision Tues

    ECB’s Draghi in Madrid Tues

    US 3-year Treasury auction Tues

    US Obama State of the Union Tues

    Europe Q4 earnings Weds: ING, SocGen, Peugeot etc

    Italy govt bond auction Weds

    US Jan retail sales Weds

    US 10-yr Treasury auction Weds

    SKorea rate decision Thurs

    Japan Q4 GDP Thurs

    BOJ decision Thurs

    EZ/Germany/France/Italy Q4 GDP Thurs

    Europe Q4 earnings Thurs: ABB, BNP Paribas, Nestle, Rio Tinto etc

    UK gilt auction Thurs

    US 30-yr Treasury auction Thurs

    G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet Moscow Fri/Sat

    UK Jan retail sales Fri

    US Jan industrial output Fri